February 08, 2010

Report: Yankees sign OF Marcus Thames

Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the Yankees have signed outfielder Marcus Thames. Terms of the contract are not yet known. Thames could enter a left field platoon with Randy Winn. Generally considered a poor defensive outfielder, Thames has value in his .845 career OPS against left-handed pitching. The Yankees will also benefit from having an extra right-handed bat in the outfield. Thames, originally drafted by the Yankees in 1996, batted .252/.323/.453 with 13 home runs in 258 at-bats last season.

SNY: Megdal: Have Mets eschewed cheaper options?

Eschew readers...and other Voola from Howard! But the two-part frustration Mets fans are justified in their anger comes from a sharp decline in salary spending relative to 2009—that team made $149 million—despite a clear understanding across baseball that this Mets roster, even should everyone return to good health, had a number of glaring holes. The bigger irritant has to be the contracts signed recently by Erik Bedard, Yorvit Torrealba and Adam Kennedy, however. Bedard is guaranteed $1.5 million, Torrealba $1.25 million and Kennedy $1.25 million. In other words, for $4 million, the Mets could have upgraded their rotation options and at second base and catcher. Now, it is important to point out, the Mets may not have gotten these players for the same money they signed for. But let’s unpack that a bit. Why should that be? Is it because the Mets have a poor reputation right now due to alack of success? Well, the only plausible way to combat that reputation is with, well, success. In other words, spending a bit more to get these players would not only have helped with 2010 on the field, it likely would have aided the bottom line in 2011 and beyond, since the…Read More ...

AP: Brewers erecting a statue of Selig outside Miller Park

“The Brewers and Miller Park are in this city because of the commissioner’s vision and dedicated efforts,” Attanasio said Monday. Selig’s foundation donated statues of Hank Aaron and Robin Yount that were unveiled when Miller Park opened in 2001. Selig’s statue, which will be more than 7 feet tall, will be built by the same designer, Brian Maughan. How will they choose which inspiring pose to immortalize?

van Dyck: White Sox unretire Aparicio’s No.11 for Vizquel

This time it’s the No. 11 of Luis Aparicio, the only Venezuelan Hall of Famer. It will be worn by countryman Omar Vizquel, with the blessing of the former great shortstop. The White Sox also “unretired” Harold Baines’ No. 3 in 1996 and 2000 when he returned to the team. Baines coaches first base and still wears his jersey number. How will this affect his Hall of Fame chances?

Sabermetrics to Remain in Public Domain

For Immediate Release February 8, 2010 Contacts:  Susan Petrone Christian Borges Publicity & Member Services Manager VP Digital Communications Society for American Baseball Research Deep Focus, Inc. 812 Huron Rd E, #719 345 Hudson Street, Fifth floor Cleveland, OH 44115 New York, NY 10014 216-575-0500 212-792-6801 spetrone@sabr.org christian@deep-focus.net Sabermetrics to Remain in Public Domain On February 3, 2010, Deep Focus, Inc. withdrew its application to trademark the term “sabermetrics” for social media consulting services. Sabermetrics was coined by statistician Bill James, who first introduced the word to readers of his Abstract in March 1980, writing: “Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.” Since that time, sabermetrics has become a ubiquitous part of the baseball landscape at all levels and by players, front office staff, the media, and fans alike. Most major league teams use sabermetrically derived statistics as part of their player evaluations. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America and others who report on baseball refer to sabermetrics and its metrics on a regular basis. Recently James has said that sabermetrics is a “declaration of no ownership of knowledge.”

Send Mark Zuckerman to Viera

There’s a cool movement afoot among Nationals fans to respond to the fact that the team is on the verge of having basically zero full time, independent (ie not affiliated with the team) beat writers, as the Washington Times has ended sports coverage, and the Post’s beat writer, Chico Harlan announced months ago that he was leaving the beat and didn’t want to cover the Nationals anymore. Check it out.

MLB Network: Understanding plate discipline (Video)

Fangraphs goes mainstream… The Hot Stove crew takes a look at the 2009 swing percentage leaders in the Major Leagues.

Dodger Thoughts: Time to stop believin’ in ‘Don’t Stop Believin’’ at Dodger Stadium

The betting here is that the playing of “Don’t Stop Believin’” in the middle of the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium will disappear, now that former Dodger exec Dr. Charles Steinberg is no longer around to champion it. Maybe it would have disappeared even if Steinberg had stayed. It wasn’t getting any fresher over time. (Sorry, Eric.) If the Dodgers decide to replace the Journey anthem with another song, what would you like it to be? My default answer on questions like these is Bruce Springsteen’s “Born to (Score a Game-Winning) Run” or Sam Cooke’s “Shake,” but I don’t think too hard about such things. I’m really quite satisfied with “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” in the seventh. But I am interested in your ideas ...

The Atlantic: Cohen: Where Have You Gone, Jim Merritt?

While you’re searching...can you check on the Wesley Willis Fiasco? Thanks. Merritt is now 66 (says Wikipedia so it must be true) and I am sure he is either laughing or crying at the notion that a whole new generation of baseball fans like me (who were toddlers in 1970) now know that his battery mate, a future Hall of Famer, and his coach, a future Hall of Famer, thought his pitches had “nothing” with his team’s season on the line. Who says baseball history is static? What I had thought all along was the power and poise and precision of Brooks Robinson and Frank Robinson and Paul Blair and Boog Powell turns out, in Game 5 anyway, to be poor ol’ Merritt. So I try to find Merritt, you know, to give him the final word on Sparky. I call the alumni group of the player’s union and guess whose voice greets me on the answering machine as I call to find out about Jim Merritt? Why, it’s none other than Brooks Robinson--Brooksie!--one of the merely five Orioles’ batters Merritt retired before he was replaced in Game 5. I leave a message. I get an email back from a nice…Read More ...

The Baseball Analysts: Jaffe: Evaluating Baseball’s Managers

Let Chris explain..."The commentary below is the introductory essay to EBM’s Chapter 5, which is titled “Rise of the Fundamentalists, 1893-1919.” People look at John McGraw and his devotion to those precious fundamentals. He ordered his players come to the park to practice and work out for several hours every day, making the athletes perform precisely in accordance with his formidable will. Other managers, like Frank Chance, made a similar fervent push for sound ball. Chance’s Cubs had a well-earned reputation as the sharpest players in the league. However, not only was the deadball era far from being the golden era of fundamentals, but the evidence used to make it seem like a Mecca of proper execution are the very facts that indicate otherwise. John McGraw did not want his players practicing constantly because they were so committed, but because those who earned a spot in major league baseball commonly displayed poor fundamentals. The book Crazy ‘08 by Cait Murphy provides an interesting window into baseball during the 1908 NL pennant race. Despite focusing on teams that diligently practiced their basics – McGraw’s Giants and Chance’s Cubs – examples of shoddy play litter the book. It was not a matter of…Read More ...

BPro: Dodgers Top 11 Prospects

Five-Star Prospects 1. Dee Gordon, SS 2. Chris Withrow, RHP Four-Star Prospects 3. Ethan Martin, RHP Three-Star Prospects 4. Aaron Miller, LHP 5. Scott Elbert, LHP 6. Trayvon Robinson, OF 7. Garrett Gould, RHP 8. Ivan DeJesus Jr., SS 9. Josh Lindblom, RHP Two-Star Prospects 10. Kenley Jansen, RHP 11. Kyle Russell, OF Four More: 12. Andrew Lambo, OF: He isn’t an athletic corner outfielder, and is instead a bat-only prospect who might not have enough bat. 13. Allen Webster, RHP: A highly projectable righty, Webster has the potential to rocket up this list after his 2010 full-season debut. 14. Pedro Baez, 3B: He needs to overcome an injury bug and plate discipline issues, but his tools remain outstanding. 15. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: This Tommy John surgery survivor was kept on a short leash in 2009, but he was brilliant at times while showcasing one of the more live arms in the system. Get on the Chris Withrow bandwagon because we’re going places!

Yahoo: Ask Alex: What will Tommy Hanson’s sophomore season bring?

The Question: How much can the Braves really expect to get out of a 23-year-old who pitched only 127 big league innings in 2009? How do they handle him with baby gloves while also capitalizing on his great first season? The Analysis: With any young pitcher, the need to protect their health is paramount. In fact, Hanson and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw(notes) did something that only seven other under-23 pitchers have done in the past 25 years, posting a 2.89 ERA in at least 127 innings. The others to achieve the same feat? Kevin Appier, Mark Prior(notes), Bruce Ruffin, Lance McCullers, Sid Fernandez, Bret Saberhagen and Doc Gooden (twice). Each saw their careers hampered by injury and were more or less out of baseball by their mid-30s. All were fabulously talented — Appier, Gooden, Saberhagen and Prior finished third or better in the Cy Young voting by their 25th birthday — which undoubtedly encouraged their managers to put a lot of miles on their arms. But sooner or later, they all paid the piper. A great year for Hanson in 2010 could have adverse affects down the line, if the Braves aren’t careful with his innings.

ATH: Should Albert Belle be in the MLB Hall of Fame?

Bill from The Daily Something figures no… I don’t think anybody really puts much stock in these anymore, but just for the sake of completeness, Bill James created two Hall-related statistics many years ago; one, the Hall of Fame Monitor, was intended to measure a player’s likelihood of getting into the Hall, while the other, Hall of Fame Standards, attempted to measure a player’s worthiness for the Hall. Belle’s Hall of Fame Monitor score is 134; a “likely” Hall of Famer hits about 100. So, finally, we have something in Belle’s favor; remember, though, that that just tracks whether we should expect the writers to vote him in, not whether he actually deserves to be in. The Monitor doesn’t know that Belle was a jerk who never talked to the media; for that matter, it doesn’t know that Belle played in the most hitting-friendly era in history. Belle’s Hall of Fame Standards score is 36; an average Hall of Famer scores 50. That’s a lot more in line with what we’ve been seeing so far. James also created “Similarity Scores,” which are just what they sound like—a very rough way to gauge how similar two players are. Belle’s five most similar…Read More ...

Update

Circumstances have already forced me to shuffle the schedule around a bit. Ubaldo Jimenez will come up later this afternoon, and I probably won't get a chance to do the Braves thing until Wednesday or Thursday. The Twins thing is moving up the schedule.


ESPN: Steve Phillips admits ‘mistakes’

Hey...where’s that Stalking Steve Phillips dude on this? Steve Phillips, the former ESPN baseball analyst and New York Mets general manager, said Monday that he knew he had a sex addiction problem in August—two months before he was fired from his role with the network. “What I want to do is take ownership,” he said in an interview with Matt Lauer on NBC’s Today Show. “I made some mistakes ... I’m fully responsible for what I did.” ...Phillips didn’t talk extensively about his time at Pine Grove, but did say that it is a place for people who are “broken” and “struggling to find answers.” Phillips said he realized he had a sexual addiction problem in August, while he was having an affair with ESPN production assistant Brooke Hundley. That affair eventually included Hundley contacting Phillips’ wife at their home. It made its way to the New York tabloids, where Phillips was front-page fodder, in October. “I recognized in August, I needed help,” Phillips said. “I started calling facilities.” ..."I couldn’t stop myself from doing the things I was doing, even knowing the consequences,” Phillips told Lauer on Monday.

Baseball Picture of the Day: New Orleans Zephyrs

Congratulations, New Orleans Saints. And now, back to your regularly scheduled Baseball Pictures. 10 days until Pitchers and Catchers! Zephyr Field, a bit before game time, 2008. Creative Commons: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nola_agent/ / CC BY 2.0 Tomorrow: Youppi!

THT: Jaffe: Ranking MLB stadiums (that I’ve been to)

12. Miller Park (Milwaukee) God ate concrete and crapped out Miller Park. I haven’t been to every retractable dome out there, but I have to believe this is the worst. It’s the anti-Seattle. The place feels so confined when the roof is open that it makes you wonder why they didn’t just go ahead and make it a year-round dome. I’ve been to it a handful of times, and each time my opinion of it lowers further. They still have the tailgating facilities (it’s on the same property as County Stadium was), but the park itself is dismal. 13. Olympic Stadium (Montreal) A lot of bad things have been said about this place over the years, and all of them are deserving. Though I think many of the modern retro stadiums are overrated, they are sure as hell a step above the previous generation. Olympic was a sterile, lousy place to watch a game. 14. Metrodome (Minnesota) It’s a fight to the death between this and Olympic for the worst stadium. This ranks lower because at least Montreal had the metric system on the outfield walls and sounds of French being spoken to make it a little interesting. The place was…Read More ...

STLouis Today: Figler: A call for neater autographs

I remember endlessly practicing my autograph during catechism...until Sister O’Beastly caught me, made me kneel on a pointer and stepped on my fingers. Youngsters in particular treasure a signed baseball by their favorite player. Of course, sports cards are always valued, but not like a ball signed by an Albert Pujols or a Yadier Molina. It always angers me that some athletes will go to great lengths to sign legibly, and others will scribble their name, and be done with it. Personally, I think it is a travesty for an athlete to sign his name in such a way that you cannot decipher what it says. Now I realize that players sign so much that it is ridiculous, and naturally some players sign more than others, but you can’t tell me that a player can’t at least write two or three letters that can be read by the average person. But sadly that is the case. Give me back those days when players took pride in their penmanship. Not today. ...It is a sad state of events when a father brings home a baseball to his daughter or son of their favorite player and they have to ask who the signature…Read More ...

El Dugouterino

If you’re not into that whole brevity thing.

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: I Want Your Scoresheets

I know a guy that collects disguarded crap-clumpy road pylons...but this, THIS?! Don’t worry about your scoresheet not being good enough or interesting enough or unique enough or whatever other excuse you might offer to be shy. There’s no such thing as a wrong way to keep score, and I’d like this site to help display the myriad of ways in which baseball fans record the game. All I ask is that the file be around 500 KB or smaller, in GIF, BMP, or JPG format, and that you also write a little bit about it (if it’s larger, I might edit it a little to make it more manageable). It can be as little as a sentence or as long as a page or two. You can write about your method of keeping score, scorekeeping in general, your memory of the game in question--anything you like. Also, if you kept the game on a commercial scoresheet, please give the name of the company/designer so that they can get a little bit of a plug (and hopefully not send me cease and desist letters). If you have your own designed sheet that you’d like to offer for others to download, I’d…Read More ...

wezen-ball: The Red Sox and All-Glove, No-Bat Players

Plus...anytime you get a chance to say Hughie Critz. You use it. The biggest observation here is just hard it was to find good examples of all-glove-no-hit players at the most offensive-minded positions, LF, RF and 1B. I guess it just goes to show how highly clubs value offense at those positions. Conversely, it was incredibly easy to find examples at SS, 2B, and CF. I should also note just how crazy those numbers for Mazeroski and Belanger look. There have never been two players in the history of baseball whose value was so heavily skewed towards their defense as Maz and Belanger. Ozzie Smith, for example, has more defensive value than Belanger (266 defensive runs vs. 256), but his offensive value was much closer to average (-47 offensive runs vs. -213). It really is amazing what those two did with the glove in their day. I’ll leave it up to the theory and simulation experts to tell me just what a team like this would do in a 162-game season (to make things interesting, vary the pitching staffs for the squad, from 2009 Brewers to 2009 Giants, to see how they’d change). It should be pretty clear, though, that the…Read More ...

Evaluating Baseball's Managers

[Editor's Note: Chris Jaffe, writer for The Hardball Times, has written a new book, “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers.” The commentary below is the introductory essay to EBM’s Chapter 5, which is titled “Rise of the Fundamentalists, 1893-1919.”]

The importance of managers peaked at the turn of the century. They inhabited a specific period in the evolution of baseball between two crucial metamorphoses of the game. First, in the late nineteenth century, field generals like Gus Schmelz and Ned Hanlon caused the rise of the modern manager and the extinction of the old business manager. By placing a premium of the preparation of players before contests and handling strategy during them, the position of manager came into its own. A generation later, the rise of the front office diminished the manager’s position by serving as a rival power source within the franchise. Between these transformations, managerial power in the sport crested. Managers ascended into the ranks of ownership with greater frequency than at any other time in baseball history, as there were fewer steps between themselves and owners. Even those who did not own a share of the club frequently had considerable autonomy. When John McGraw became Giants manager, he told the owners which players to keep or remove from the roster, indicating who called the shots for that franchise. Not all managers wielded such authority in this era, and many held considerable power in the future, but they had their strongest opportunity to control the entire franchise at the turn of the century.

Managerial power also reached its zenith because coaching was more important in this period than any other. Old time baseball is often remembered as a glory era, when players dedicated themselves to the craft of the game in a way that modern players with their supposedly softer attitudes never could. Though this attitude is very frequent in the modern day, ideas that the old-timers were better, wiser, and more dedicated are as old as the game itself.

People look at John McGraw and his devotion to those precious fundamentals. He ordered his players come to the park to practice and work out for several hours every day, making the athletes perform precisely in accordance with his formidable will. Other managers, like Frank Chance, made a similar fervent push for sound ball. Chance’s Cubs had a well-earned reputation as the sharpest players in the league.

However, not only was the deadball era far from being the golden era of fundamentals, but the evidence used to make it seem like a Mecca of proper execution are the very facts that indicate otherwise. John McGraw did not want his players practicing constantly because they were so committed, but because those who earned a spot in major league baseball commonly displayed poor fundamentals. The book Crazy ‘08 by Cait Murphy provides an interesting window into baseball during the 1908 NL pennant race. Despite focusing on teams that diligently practiced their basics – McGraw’s Giants and Chance’s Cubs – examples of shoddy play litter the book. It was not a matter of errors; the gloves and conditions of the day made muffed grounders understandable. The problems went deeper. Virtually every game contained at least one boneheaded play that could not be blamed on the conditions. Flies landed between fielders. A base runner would be doubled off on a pop up. An outfielder would misplay a grounder for an inside-the-park home run. These plays still happen, but not nearly as often. If the Cubs and Giants played like that, imagine how the doormats played. There were also some extremely smart plays, but the floor for proper conduct was much lower in 1908.

It seems strange that teams that practiced so religiously played so poorly, but think for a second. Much of what is now received wisdom was still being worked out. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century, players slowly began figuring out how to work together, or back each other up. For example, what should a catcher do when a base runner is caught in a run-down between first and second? Where should the shortstop go when the runner on first heads for third on a single to right? People are not born knowing the answers.

Look at it from the point of view of someone born in 1879 earning a roster slot in 1900. He grew up in a world where even the best players at the highest levels were still learning the core basics. It did not trickle down to Iowa’s cornfields or Pennsylvania’s coal mines overnight. Neither TV nor radio existed to teach him how the pros acted. Odds were very good he had never seen a big league game, and may not know anyone who has. Sandlot baseball has always been self-regulating, but there is usually at least some fundamental knowledge for kids to rely on. When he starts playing semipro ball, his manager was likely another player, probably under 30 years old himself. That man hopefully has some exposure to the basics being threshed out, but that was not guaranteed. Even if the skipper had basic knowledge of fundamentals, perhaps he cannot coach well. Depending on the club’s finances, he might be a business manager. If a kid could hit or possessed a strong arm, he would receive playing time, no matter how ignorant he was of fundamentals.

Thus you end up with the following story told by baseball historian Fred Stein. In 1897, a rawboned young buck called Honus Wagner began playing for the Louisville Colonels. His manager, a not yet 25-years-old Fred Clarke, told the kid to “lay one down” in his next at bat. Instead, Wagner hit a home run. Appreciative of the result but curious as to why the rookie ignored his instructions to bunt, Clarke asked Wagner what happened. Shamefacedly, the future Hall of Famer shortstop admitted he had never heard the phrase “lay one down” before. He had no idea what his manager was talking about. This was the situation Clarke, McGraw, and Chance contended with.

Fundamentals first have to be developed. Then they diffuse. Next, their instruction becomes institutionalized. Once the lessons become second nature to one generation, the next wave can be fully and immediately immersed in them. Nowadays, high schoolers are better versed in solid fundamentals than many big leaguers a century ago. After enough years and decades go by, fundamentals are so ingrained even Little Leaguers learn them, and you assume that everyone getting paid to play the game knows them by heart. Even a poor kid from the Dominican Republic has access to more knowledgeable adults and coaches than was the case for an 1890s Wisconsin farm boy.

This might oversell the point. At SABR’s annual convention in 2007, I heard Cait Murphy talk about what she learned from researching her book, and she was surprised at how advanced the level of play sometimes was. Examples of intelligent play existed – for instance the Cubs had worked out an impressive system of defensive signals amongst each other. However, such plays coincided with embarrassing miscues, as the floor for acceptable play was quite low. A wide discrepancy existed in the quality of fundamental ball played in these years. The more advanced examples of shrewd gamesmanship were often the result of major league managers instilling those values into their charges.

This explains why coaching fundamentals mattered so much for this generation of managers. The basic ideas of how to play had been worked out, now it was a time to diligently instruct them to the players. McGraw, Chance, and their ilk focused on the fundamentals because their players so sorely lacked knowledge that these pointers could significantly improve squads.

A century later, in his bestseller Moneyball, Michael Lewis introduced the phrase “market inefficiency” to baseball fans. He argued the 2002 A’s won 103 games despite a low payroll because they realized the baseball world undervalued the importance of on-base percentage. By exploiting this gap between reality and perception, A’s GM Billy Beane made his team a winner. A century earlier, the market inefficiency was fundamentals. The best managers, such as McGraw and Chance, were those who could transform raw clumps of talent into majestic creations. One should not underestimate how important sound play was back then. In the early twentieth century some teams made 100 fewer errors a year than their rivals. Combined with improved base running, solid mental play, and all those other little things, proper fundamentals were worth many wins.

Chris Jaffe is an instructor of history and a columnist for the The Hardball Times. He lives in Schaumburg, Illinois. For more information about Chris Jaffe and Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, visit the author’s website.

Morning thread: Phillies debunk Japanese signings

Old business: Contrary to Friday’s report by Japan’s Daily Sports Online, the Phillies have not reach agreements with Japanese relievers Shigetoshi Yamakita and Naoyo Okamoto, according to a Phillies spokesman. Yamakita and Okamoto pitched in the Yokohama BayStars farm system last season, so if the signings don’t come to fruition, it’s no great loss for the Phillies. By way of new business, it was a quiet weekend for baseball with the sports world overshadowed by yesterday’s Super Bowl. But if...

Japan Times: Lions rookie hurler Kikuchi sounds like a young man in a hurry

The NPB has ramped up its efforts to speed up games over the past few seasons. Saitama Seibu Lions rookie pitcher Yusei Kikuchi plans to do his part. Kikuchi has told reporters he wants to finish games in under two hours if possible, to prevent fans from becoming bored. “Like high school baseball, the game should finish between 90 minutes and two hours,” Kikuchi was quoted as saying after a bullpen session earlier this week. The young hurler certainly didn’t spend too much time on the mound at Koshien last year, with a 2-hour, 24-minute contest against Hokkaido area high school Mukawa in the summer, the longest of his seven outings during the annual spring and summer editions of the National High School Baseball Championship. His shortest outing was a 1:38 affair against Nagasaki Nichidai in the spring version of the tournament. The NPB can only hope all of its players share Kikuchi’s mind-set on the issue. The league introduced the NPB Green Baseball Project in 2008 in an effort to get the average time of games under three hours. The program was started with the intention of baseball doing its part to help the environment.

AP: Dominican Republic wins Caribbean Series finale

MARGARITA ISLAND, Venezuela (AP)—Los Leones del Escogido from the Dominican Republic won the Caribbean Series, beating Venezuela’s Leones del Caracas 7-4 Sunday night in the final game of the six-day series. The Dominican Republic finished 5-1, one game better than Puerto Rico’s Indios de Mayaguez (4-2). It’s the third Caribbean Series title for the Dominican club and the 18th for a team from the Dominican Republic. Raul Valdes pitched five innings to earn his second win of the series and the Dominican Republic scored four runs in the top of the first. Valdes gave up three hits and four runs, striking out five.

NYT: Piniella Says He Forgives McGwire

1 down...6,484 to go (flips over subbing “Kip” Fadiman’s cootie-filled score-keeping device). Piniella said that McGwire worked very hard on honing his own batting style. That experience will help him relate to hitters. “He worked on his swing endlessly,” Piniella said. “He swung and missed a lot early in his career. He learned how to make contact more and more. With his strength, the ball flew out of the ballpark.” Of course, McGwire had more than his natural strength going for him. Last month, he admitted he used steroids on and off for nearly a decade, including when he broke the home run record in 1998. Will McGwire have trouble gaining the respect of Cardinals players after acknowledging that he cheated? “I don’t think so,” Piniella said. “I really don’t. “He confessed. In this country, they forgive and forget. Who is out there that can’t confess to something? We in this baseball fraternity forgive him.”

L.A. Times: Dan Evans looks good in retrospect

There’s an unsung hero to the Dodgers’ success the last few years, a nearly forgotten figure. A man who built the core of this current team, but who was discarded before his work bore fruit. Time to give Dan Evans his due. Evans was hired as the Dodgers’ general manager in 2001 at a time the team seemed mired in mediocrity and the farm system had lost its way. Most publications ranked the team’s minor league system near the absolute bottom in baseball, but in three short years it was ranked in the top 10. Evans rebuilt the front office and brought in good people like Kim Ng, vice president and assistant general manager, and Logan White, assistant general manager of scouting. And then they went to work. They drafted Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton, players the team is now built around, as well as Jason Repko and James McDonald. “I’m really proud of the fact that these guys panned out,” Evans said. “I was really lucky. I had a terrific staff. I feel good about what we did there.”

TYU: Robinson Cano and false perceptions of speed

Bad running? Mike de la Hoziery looks on. While Keith Law is discussing Orlando Hudson here – the “Slow-Dawg” – he might as well be referring to Robinson Cano. Though Cano is not viwed as a “low-power middle infielder,” he is often mistakenly perceived as having “good speed,” although, as Law says, such a characterization just does not “bear out in reality.” I remember Joe Buck referencing Cano in this way throughout the World Series and wondered how, exactly, Buck came to that conclusion given Cano’s poor stolen base numbers – 17 steals in 38 attempts – and decidedly low speed score (3.6). To be fair to Buck, even I admit that I was surprised at how sluggish Cano was on the bases when he first arrived on the scene in 2005. Perhaps stereotypes regarding infielders as well as stereotypes pertaining to appearance are to blame. While Cano is a powerful middle infielder, he is, still, a middle infielder. Thus, we assume that he is faster, for whatever reason, because middle infielders just are that way inherently. Plus, Cano is slim and “looks” athletic, so perhaps that visual is what makes many people think he is faster than he really is…Read More ...

Gauging Interest

Gauge_medium

 
Do NOT jump to any conclusions about this, but I want to gauge interest on something.

If I was to do something like a weekly podcast, how many of you would listen in?

Poll
Would you listen to a weekly podcast from John?

  916 votes | Results


February 07, 2010

The Times Amends Some Old Fences: Dan Evans Gets Overdue Credit

Not that T.J. Simers or Bill Plaschke would notice. Is it possible that sensible sportswriting has come back to the Times? I'm not holding out a lot of hope for it, but stranger things have been seen in the skies.

Alternative Sports Programming

Football_medium

I'm told that there is some sort of non-baseball sporting event that is attracting some attention this evening.

Feel free to use this thread to discuss the non-baseball competition. Or you can head on over to the game thread at SBNation.com  and discuss the game with many like-minded fans from around the SB Nation websites.


Not a Rookie: Marc Rzepczynski

Toronto Blue Jays starter Marc Rzepczynski pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees in a baseball game at Yankee Stadium Monday, Aug. 10, 2009 in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

6 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starter Marc Rzepczynski pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees in a baseball game at Yankee Stadium Monday, Aug. 10, 2009 in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Not a Rookie: Marc Rzepczynski

Here's a look at Blue Jays lefty Marc Rzepczynski, one of the more successful rookie pitchers in baseball last year.

Rzep (I'm not typing that name again) was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth round in 2007, out of the University of California-Riverside. He was considered a second or third round talent before the college season, but his stock dropped slightly after he missed several weeks of pitching time with a sore elbow and a broken knuckle. He pitched very well in college (2.72 ERA, 84/25 K/BB with zero homers allowed in 73 innings), and continued to pitch very well after signing, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 49/17 K/BB in 46 innings in the New York-Penn League. Scouting reports indicated an 88-92 MPH sinking fastball, a good curveball, and a workable slider and changeup, giving him a four-pitch arsenal. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2008 book, writing that he was a big sleeper heading into the season and using the "Sleeper Alert!" tag on his comment.

He missed April 2008 recovering from a fractured bone in his pitching hand, but took the mound in May and was very impressive for Lansing in the Midwest League, posting a 2.83 ERA with a 124/42 K/BB in 121 innings, allowing 100 hits and just two homers. He posted a 3.00 GO/AO ratio to go with the low homer rate. He showed tremendous polish for the Midwest League, but at age 22/23 he was a bit old for the level. I gave him a positive review in the '09 book, renewing the Grade C+ rating but noting that the Double-A transition would be critical for him.

Rzep began '09 with Double-A New Hampshire and transitioned well, going 7-5, 2.93 with an 88/36 K/BB in 77 innings with just one homer and a 2.58 GO/AO. Promoted to Triple-A, he pitched well in two starts (16/4 K/BB, one run in 11.1 innings) and was rewarded with a promotion to the majors. For the Blue Jays, he went 2-4, 3.67 in 11 starts, with a 60/30 K/BB ratio in 61 innings, allowing 51 hits with a 4.14 FIP. His GO/AO was 1.84. The Jays shut him down on September 1st to avoid overworking his arm.

Obviously this was very good rookie performance, and given his minor league track record I don't think it was a fluke. Sabermetrically, all indicators have always been positive for Rzep, and his components deteriorated by a very normal amount in the majors. The main thing he needs to do numberwise is lower his walk rate.

Scouting-wise, his fangraphs data indicates a fastball ranging between 86 and 91 MPH, averaging 88. He used his two-seam and four-seam fastballs 55% of the time, mixing in a slider 37% of the time, but making more limited use of his changeup (6%) and curveball (just 2%). Fangraphs rates his slider as his most effective pitch. He used the curveball and changeup more often in the minors than in the majors, and I'd like to see him mix in those pitches more frequently as he moves forward. I don't see any huge red flags in his delivery, which looks pretty smooth to me, although that's no guarantee that he won't get hurt of course. The Blue Jays did the right thing shutting him down in September in my opinion.

Rzep doesn't have the pure stuff to project as an ace, but if he can sharpen his command a bit more, I think he can be a good number four starter for a long time to come. His debut was impressive and I think he's still an underrated pitcher who will have a better career than many guys who get more publicity.


February 06, 2010

Phillies hire two lefties off Japanese taxi squad

Relievers Shigetoshi Yamakita, 32, and Naoyo Okamoto, 26, spent last season with Shonen Searex, which sounds like a college rock band from the 80s, but is actually the farm team of the Yokohama BayStars. Beerleaguer: Always wanted the Phillies to try something like this to see if they could catch lighting in a bottle with quirky Japanese lefties based on the power of confusion. Guys like right-hander Takashi Saito and lefty Hideki Okajima were good, but weren't exactly setting the...

Upcoming Schedule

 
Upcoming schedule after the jump. Keep in mind that, as always, things may slip a bit if real life interferes.

Note that there is some mild cheesecake below the fold, so if you are at work or something you might want to make sure the boss isn't close by.

Scarlett_medium
Scarlett Johannsen

Minor League Ball Upcoming schedule

Sunday: Not a Rookie: Marc Rzepczynski
Monday: Not a Rookie: Ubaldo Jimenez
Tuesday: Elbert vs. Morales Smackdown
Wednesday: Not a Rookie: Josh Johnson
Thursday: Why Most Prospects Need Both Double-A and Triple-A Experience
Friday: European Prospects in the Twins system
Weekend: Pitchers in the Braves system: A Look at the 2009 Rome and Myrtle Beach starting rotations

OTHER ARTICLES IN LINE SOMETIME SOON
Grade C/C+ Pitchers who Might Break Out
Grade C/C+ Shortstops who Might Break Out
European Prospects in the Twins system
Not a Rookies for Luis Valbuena, Dexter Fowler, Saltalamacchia, and Hochever

I'll also be doing an "Under the Radar for 2010" piece for Rotowire this week.


February 05, 2010

Thoughts on a New Box Score

I have fond memories of, as a child, reading box scores in the newspaper. In the pre-internet, or at least pre-internet in my house, days box scores in newspapers was the medium by which I, and I assume, most people consumed baseball data. The data were all there, tightly yet efficiently packed in a format that allowed you to pull out any or all you wanted without feeling overwhelmed. Each was small enough for box scores for all the day's games to fit on one page.

I still read box scores, the medium has changed to the internet, but the box score itself is largely the same. I guess the format has stayed largely the same since the mid-1800s. Some of the stats are different but the layout is very similar. Over 150 years with little change shows that the format is remarkably successful, but that does not mean there cannot be innovations. FanGraphs's WPA charts are not box scores per se, but are a very effective way of presenting what happened in a game.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to attempt to create a new box score. I wanted it to retain the original box score's quality of presenting a relatively large amount of information in a relatively small space, but making that data accessible and not overwhelming. Beyond that I hoped my new method gave a more immediate feeling for the pace and tenor of the game, like the WPA chart does.

Here is my attempt. The image is may be too small, but I kept it that way so that it didn't push out the right margin of the page. You can click on it for a larger version. I used game one of the 2009 World Series for the example.
New Box Score
Each at-bat is represented by a bar, the height of which denotes the base the batter reached. White bars are for outs, black for hits or walks. The batter's progression around the rest of the bases that inning is indicated in gray (steals have a vertical black line through them). Runners on-base during an at-bat are indicated in red: circles for those not moved over in the at-bat, lines to show their progression as a result of the at-bat and an 'ex' if they were thrown or tagged out in that at-bat.

The score can be counted along as the black or gray bars reach the top. That also allows you to count individual batter's runs scored or pitcher's runs allowed. Red lines that reach the top are RBIs.

Compared to a traditional box score it is harder to find an individual player's line. For example to see that Chase Utley went 2-4 with 2 HRs, 2 runs, 2 RBIs, a strikeout and a walk you have to go through, find his at-bats and count all of the events. But the trade-off is, I think, this formulation gives a better feel for the pace of the game, and allows the events to be easily recreated: in the top of the first CC Sabathia escaped a base-loaded two-outs jam; Phil Hughes took over to start the eighth and walked the only two batters he faced, both of whom came around to score on Raul Ibanez's single; Utley's two solo-HRs were the only runs through the first seven innings; Cliff Lee didn't allow a runner past first until the ninth, and up to that point faced just three batters over the minimum; the Yankees burned through five relievers, who gave up four runs, in the last two innings; the top of the ninth ended with Shane Victorino getting thrown out at home on a Ryan Howard double and the game ended with two more Cliff Lee strikeouts. All of this can be easily seen through a close, but not difficult, reading of the chart.

What do you think of this format: Complicated and poorly laid out? Hard to read? Brilliant? I welcome constructive criticism in light of what you want from a representation of a baseball game.

All Questions Answered Thread

Here is an All Questions Answered Thread. Comments are now closed, but thanks to everyone who participated. I also got some good fodder for future articles here.

GROUND RULES

1) Only one question per poster please.
2) Please try not to ask questions like "rank these 50 players in order"
3) I am still dealing with Jeri being sick, so it will take me time to work through the questions. Please be patient.

 

Jeri is feeling somewhat better and I hope to be fully operational Saturday. I was involved in two seperate and unrelated car accidents today, and that kind of ruined my day and kept me from working on this until now.


Purge: The first cards to go

Purge update. There's no turning back. Those of you who want to trade with me or want some of my cards, email me and we'll figure something out. Also, two nights ago I started listing cards on eBay. You can follow my auctions here.

Last night I posted three lots of 1959 Topps Venezuelan, nine cards total. Almost immediately, they all sold at the "buy it now" price. If you're interested in Venezuelan cards, I have about 20 from 1960 and 16 from 1966, in various conditions, with Hall of Famers, stars of the day, rookies, Yankees, Dodgers, and commons.

Also this weekend, I'll be posting a whole bunch of lots from the 1970s, as well as going through and putting together a 1986 Topps set, then giving away all the doubles. If you're in the Brookline/Boston area and have a hankering for 1986 Topps baseball cards, drop me a line before I drop them on Craigslist.

The Keeper List update. As part of The Epiphany, I'm putting together a list of Keepers. What makes a card a Keeper? It's a card I have a favorable gut reaction to, if that makes any sense. For me the holy quintet of baseball cards is 1953 Topps Ed Mathews, 1954 Topps O'Brien Brothers, 1958 Topps Stan Musial All-Star, 1959 Topps Roy Campanella "Symbol of Courage" and 1972 Topps Roberto Clemente. These are cards I'd consider framing, cards that transcend their subjects, cards that I consider artwork. Of course there are others: 1978 Topps Eddie Murray, 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco, 1987 Topps Bo Jackson to name a few.

This is a work in progress, but you can follow that progress by viewing the Keeper List here. If you'd like to trade with me, these are the cards I'm interested in obtaining.

This weekend I'm going to start posting more about The Purge in earnest. But I'm serious, if you want to trade with me or you just plain want some of my cards, email me.


Plan B: The A-Dog.

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(AP Photo. Adam Kennedy is no O-Dog.)

Adam Kennedy is coming to Washington.

And the bad news is: Desmond is out at short? Cristian Guzman will continue doing his Washington Monument impression at shortstop for another season? Via Ken Rosenthal:

Kennedy, 34, is expected to be the Nationals’ second baseman, enabling  Cristian Guzman to remain at shortstop.

The Nats had talked about moving Guzman to second to clear short for rookie Ian Desmond. The addition of Kennedy will allow Desmond more  time to develop at Class AAA.

Booooooo!! Why?

Details of the deal: $1.25 million, with a $2 million option in 2011, according to MASN's Ben Goessling:

Confirmed terms on the Kennedy deal--$1.25 million for this year, $2 million team option next year.
(Ben Goessling, masnNATS/Twitter, 2/5/2010)

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And The Real Estate Is Cheaper

So I guess the question now is this: When does that Fernando Martinez for Yorvit Torrealba trade happen?
"When [Carlos] Beltran had surgery, I thought I had a chance, and maybe they would give me a chance at center. But they get Matthews Jr., and now I'm not sure where I am. I just can't give up. I know I'm a big league player, and I can perform at a high level. It's in my hands, so I have to keep working hard and maybe earn a spot. Maybe I make it to the big leagues with the Mets or maybe another team, but I know I can do it. I just have to keep working and waiting for my opportunity." -Fernando Martinez
Dude ... May I call you dude? You're only 21 years young, you were on the interstate in your time up here, and you haven't proven you can put a full season together without pulling ... anything. So dude, calm down a tad.

But once again, the Mets have seen a super-duper prospect's trade value dip before he could be traded for a guy like Matt Holliday or the like (see: Milledge, L.) The problem is: With Bay, Beltran and Frenchy (not to mention Corporal Matthews) blocking the entrance, the only way Martinez's value rises is if he hits .450 in Buffalo (good luck with that), or depend on another injury to vault back in the majors and hit a couple of moon shots into the Pepsi Porch. Part of it is the general practice of rushing their prospects through the lower levels. Part of it ... plain bad luck with injuries forcing him up to the majors before his time. But it lends itself to that whole "least efficient team in baseball" reputation in a new and different way.

So who are the Mets going to get for the guy they wouldn't trade for Johan Santana, Matt Holliday, or anybody else?

And when will Martinez become a mere Mets trivia question?

ORLANDOUGH

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(Photo by Reuters. Orlando Hudson, above, getting drilled by a pitch last July.)

O-No-Dog!

$5 Million vs. ~$3-4 Million?

Hudson takes Twins' money, and runs.

Rizzo puts Ted Lerner's checkbook back in his desk drawer.

Hurdles remain, including a physical, but #Twins are moving toward signing O. Hudson to one-year, $5M deal.
(Ken Rosenthal, via Twitter, 2/04/2010)

Heard this: Hudson is closing in on a $5 million with the Twins.
(Buster Olney, via Twitter, 2/04/2010)

So Desmond/Guzman it is in 2010. Or Desmond/Guzman/Kennedy. Or...maybe someone can track down Jose Vidro and throw him back in the mix. No matter how you mix and match the bodies, the Nationals head into the 2010 season with big question marks up the middle. 

Granted, Orlando Hudson has probably lost a step. And not signing Orlando Hudson is not the end of the world. But what happened?

According to a published report, the Nationals offered Hudson $3 million, with incentives that could have brought the value of the contract to $4 million. The source said Hudson was not going to sign with Washington for that kind of money. 
(via Bill Ladson/Nationals.com, 2/04/2010)

Despite mutual interest between both parties, neither was willing to budge on financial terms. The Nats were believed to have offered between $3 million and $4 million; Hudson insisted on considerably more than that.
(Mark Zuckerman, via Nats Insider, 2/04/2010)

So it was all about the money. Surprise.

But consider for a moment that Mike Rizzo was willing to throw $6 million for 2 yrs. down the crapper for the washed up carcass of Pudge Rodriguez in the name of mentoring. It seems strange that Rizzo would then refuse to move on a $3+ million incentive-laden deal for a guy who would be an upgrade up the middle for baseball's worst defensive team.

What happened? Did Rizzo botch this thing? Or was Hudson really refusing to budge from that reported demand for $9 million? Surely this wasn't a question of Rizzo being up against a tight budget. Right?

Can't we just blame the Lerners and be done with it? No? Fine.

Tonight, we're disappointed that the Nationals failed to sign Orlando Hudson. Not despondent, but disappointed.

How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

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Discussion Question

We are still on "Jeri is sick" protocol around these parts, so here is a discussion question to keep you guys entertained.

Which rookie pitcher would you rather have for 2010 ONLY...Brian Matusz of Baltimore, or Wade Davis of Tampa Bay. Don't worry about any season past 2010, and assume that both pitchers will be in the rotation on opening day.


Matusz shows up slightly higher than Davis on most prospect lists, but do you like him better than Davis JUST FOR 2010? Try to approach this one from a fantasy perspective, so things like the support of teammates can factor into your decision.

Poll
Who would you prefer for your fantasy team for 2010, Wade Davis or Brian Matusz?

  1236 votes | Results


February 04, 2010

BtB "Sabers" complete

Today we posted the results of the final category in the BtB Sabermetric Awards. This was the first time I've tried to organize anything quite on this level in the sabermetric community, but I'm extremely pleased with how it all went. Hopefully, we can do it again next year. Here are the award result posts:

  1. Best Novel Research Article/Project
  2. Best Applied Research Article/Project
  3. Best Primer or Review Article
  4. Best Commentary Article
  5. Best Writing/Research Website
  6. Best New Online Resource
  7. Best Writer/Researcher

Onward to the next project! I still have this minor league thing I want to get finished, and after that it will probably be time to start working up a team projection for the Reds. I'm pleasantly optimistic right now about their chances to top 0.500 this season...

Update

Jeri is sick with some sort of flu bug....fever, vomiting, etc.  As a result, I'm on full-time child care, sick spouse, and book-shipping call right now and writing time is non-existent. Thanks for your patience.

If you want to contribute to the Pepto Bismol fund, feel free to buy a 2010 Baseball Prospect Book!  I hear it's pretty good.


Jim Thome Signs With The Twins

Austin Knoblauch in The Fabulous Forum reports that briefly-a-Dodger Jim Thome has signed with the Minnesota Twins on a one-year, $1.5M deal.

Jason Simontacchi is still available.

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(Photo of TV by Nationals Enquirer staff. Ex-Nat Jason Simontacchi was the starting pitcher in Wednesday night's Caribbean Series game between Venezuela and Puerto Rico.)

"I think during the second half of the offseason, we are going to let a little bit of that come to us. We do think there is a surplus of people out there ... that we are talking about. There is nobody ... out there on the pitching market that is a difference maker."
(Mike Rizzo, via Nationals.com, 2/03/2010)

Give us your tired, your poor, your retreads.

Making a little joke there (ha ha) about Jason Simontacchi's availability on the market, since his name popped up just Tuesday in Nats Insider's "From NatsTown to oblivion" post. Oblivion apparently means Venezuela for Simontacchi, because, lo and behold, a night after a Vinny Castilla sighting, there's Jason Simontacchi on TV on MLB Network, starting for Venezuela in a 5-2 Caribbean Series win over Puerto Rico. True to his 2007-Simontacchian form, he pitched pretty well for four innings, then ran out of gas in the fifth. His line: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5K, 1 HR.

Which brings us to a Nationals.com report Wednesday that the Nats are looking at Wang (*ahem*). Chien-Ming Wang, that is, making his way back from shoulder surgery. Given Mike Rizzo's quote (above) yesterday on Nationals.com suggesting there aren't any "difference makers" left on the market, one has to wonder if it's time to just get comfortable with a 2010 rotation that looks something like this (throwing Strasburg out of the conversation):

1: John Lannan
2: Jason Marquis
3 - 6: JD Martin? Scott Olsen? Ross Detwiler? Craig Stammen? Miguel Batista?

Nats Triple Play nailed it yesterday:

...the search has clearly shifted from legitimate free agent upgrade .... to the Nats old familiar haunt, Trader Jim's Bargain Bin and Retread Emporium.

In that spirit, maybe Simontacchi's not such a bad idea after all.

And then, there's always Livo. Wonder if Rizzo's called him back yet?

Meanwhile...

Starting now, we're not going to mention the name Orlando Hudson here until he signs. Somewhere. Anywhere. We're O-Dog tired of talking about the O-Dog.

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Bring Back Vinny!

20100202vc2 

(Photo of TV by Nationals Enquirer staff. Vinny Castilla, right, greets his teammates after homering in the 7th inning of Tuesday night's Caribbean Series matchup between Mexico and Venezuela.)

Old -- make that, REALLY OLD--  friend Vinny Castilla went 2-4 with a HR, double, and 2 RBI for Mexico in Tuesday night's 7-2 win over Venezuela in the Caribbean Series. We got sort of misty eyed watching the 42 year old Castilla hobble around the field on those shoddy knees during the game (on MLB Network). He even homered, just for old times sake.

Meanwhile...

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Hopefully that test of the Nationals Park fireworks system went off without a hitch...

20090705n 

(Photo of TV by Nationals Enquirer Staff. Timing is everything. On July 5, 2009, the Nats pyrotechnics crew prematurely shot off celebratory fireworks after a foul ball on a 3-2 pitch with 2 outs in the 9th with the Nats leading the Braves 5-3. Then Mike MacDougal nearly blew the game. Give 'em a break; they were out of practice.)

Good news: the Nationals were planning to test the fireworks system at Nats Park earlier this evening. Via WTOP.com:

The Nationals will be testing its fireworks system to determine the best location for the Friday night fireworks.

The test will start at 7 p.m. at Nats Park on South Capitol Street in Southeast.

It's expected to last about seven minutes.

Given several instances of Fireworks Fail at Nationals Park in 2009, for example: the post-fireworks debris falling on the DC Fire Chief on June 7th, and the premature fireworks celebration on July 5th, the Nationals can probably use all the practice they can get when it comes to pyrotechnics.

At this hour, we haven't heard any reports of Nationals Park burning down, or buildings in Southeast spontaneously catching fire, so we're going to chalk up tonight's test as a success.

Bang, Zoom!


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February 03, 2010

The Epiphany

I had an epiphany last night in conversation with my fiancee. And truthfully, I've had this thought before, just no reason to do it. I'm going to focus my collection down to 5,000 cards – 10,000 at most.

You may be thinking "Wow Ben, don't limit yourself" in a sarcastic way, but I have over 200,000 cards. That's not a collection. That's a landfill. And what of the other 190,000 to 195,000? Hello, eBay.

So what spurred this? The constant battle for space against the clutter, that's what. Since childhood I've been a neatfreak trapped in a trash collector's body. Like all people, my interest in things waxes and wanes, but unlike most people, I never make a clean break. I have hundreds of CDs. I have two very heavy boxes full of 16mm films from the 1940s. I have a postcard folder collection that rivals my sports card collection. My fiancee and I have a huge library of books. I collect Chris Ware books and prints. The list just goes on from there.

This is something I need to do. And this morning I got the ball rolling. A few days ago a friend of mine (who is currently housing most of my card collection) visited and dropped off a box brimming with my basketball card collection, all 5,000 or so cards of it, not counting the vintage stuff I've bought on the side through the years. Just a week ago I would've been excited to get it back and lovingly sort through the stacks.

This morning I got up early. I sorted through the entire box, pulling out the Celtics and the 1989-90 Hoops (by far my favorite basketball set of my youth). After that, I put up a notice on the Boston Craigslist: FREE Big Box of Basketball Cards. By 3pm it was on its way home with a new owner.

During the handing-off of the box, I was a little nervous, like making sure my kid was okay to ride the bus to sleep-away camp. But after it was done, I was surprised at how clean I felt.

I've tried focusing my collection before: only cards of the Red Sox, and only cards made before 1972. Well, then how did I end up with thousands of commons from 1973, 1974, and 1975? How did I end up with nearly 1,000 cards from 2008 Topps Heritage? Why, oh why did I just buy not one but two boxes of 1991 Topps?

I think I can do 5,000 cards total. I know I can do 10,000. I drafted a "keep" sheet this morning:

Sets
• 1986 Topps set (792)
• 1986 Topps Traded set (132)
• 1987 Topps set (792)
• 1987 Topps Traded set (132)

Still try to complete:
• 1962 Post Cereal (200)
• 1956 Topps (Life Goal territory here) (340)

• Cap out Red Sox collection at 1,000 unique cards

So far that's a total of 3,188 cards. That leaves me with 1,812 individual cards at the least; 6,812 at the most.

Lately I've been thinking about the purpose of continuing The Baseball Card Blog. I know that I've brought this up many times in the past, and that I've never come to a clear, concise conclusion about what to do.

I think I've figured the whole thing out. The way I see it, it follows a trilogy arc.

Act One: Binge (2006-2007)
I revel in the idea of rediscovering cards from childhood. I rank all the sets from the 1980s and early 1990s. I highlight the wonderfully inane with The Fantastic Card of the Day.

Act Two: Revelation (2008)
I wonder aloud at the posturing of the industry players; I even enter the game and consult for Topps on a few of their projects. I embrace the mighty modern-day airbrush and create a virtual cardboard homage to "Casey at the Bat." I flesh out previous blog entries and edit a standalone book ("The Baseball Card Book", never published).

Act Three: Purge (2010)
After a year of inactivity, I come full circle and explore ways of dodging the metaphorical iceberg that is 200,000 sports cards and nowhere to store them. I blog about The Keeper List and why certain cards make it and most don't. At the end of the Purge, I end the blog as a focused collector, an individual who's found meaning in the cards (and who's recognized that not all cards have meaning).


My friend and I were talking over lunch when I brought up the idea that tossing out most of our collections would be a good thing. He threw me a pack of 2010 Topps and said I sounded like I needed to be talked down from the ledge. But I don't think it's unnatural, just the logical third step for any collector (or their well-meaning, spring-cleaning mother): cleanse the palate, and focus on what matters.

Breathe easy, Oil Can, you're a Keeper.


Interview on HotStove.com

I'll be doing an interview at HotStove.com at 1 pm central time this afternoon. Stop by!



Not a Rookie: Mat Latos

San Diego Padres' Mat Latos pitches to the Florida Marlins during third-inning baseball game action, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

More photos » J Pat Carter - AP

5 months ago: San Diego Padres' Mat Latos pitches to the Florida Marlins during third-inning baseball game action, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

Not a Rookie: Mat Latos

Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.

He didn't sign right away, but passed up four-year college baseball to attend Broward Community College in Florida and keep his options open. A good spring in 2007 convinced the Padres that he was worth the money, and he signed for $1.25 million hours before he would have re-entered the draft pool.

Latos made his pro debut in the Northwest League, posting a 3.83 ERA with a 74/22 K/BB in 56 innings for Eugene. He showed a 93-97 MPH heater in his debut, along with a plus slider. His curveball and changeup needed some work and his command was inconsistent, but his upside was clearly very high. I gave him a Grade B in the 2008 book, writing that he had the ceiling of a number one starter but that we needed to see some higher-level data.

Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he'd be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Latos began 2009 back with Fort Wayne, but was promoted after posting a 0.36 ERA with a 27/3 K/BB in 25 innings. Moved up to Double-A San Antonio, he dominated the Texas League with a 5-1, 1.91 mark and a 46/9 K/BB ratio in 47 innings, allowing 32 hits. The Padres promoted him to the majors at that point and he held his own, going 4-5, 4.62 in 10 starts, with a 39/23 K/BB in 50.2 innings, allowing 43 hits, moving just barely past the rookie innings limit. 

Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That's outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.

His major league statistics weren't quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that's just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.

Looking at his Fangraphs and Pitch/fX data, his fastball and slider both rate as above average pitches by their metrics, with only the changeup coming out as a below average pitch. He relied mainly on his heater, throwing the fastball an estimated 66% of the time, with the slider at 20.5% and the changeup at 11.6%. That seems to jive well with the minor league scouting reports. The heater averaged 94 MPH and was clocked as high as 98. Again, this meshes perfectly with what he did in the minors. His stuff is clearly first class, though improving the changeup and sharpening his command are necessary steps for him to live up to his ace potential.

There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he's a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:   "He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude." Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from "he's just a different guy" to "what a jackass." His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn't look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don't have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I'm not overly concerned about the makeup issue.

I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think "he's gonna get hurt." Your mileage may vary.

In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he'd come in under the 50-inning limit, I'd rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher's list.


Random Transactions

I expect at this point we'll see some more stuff over the transom, and if I get it, I'll update this post if it happens today.
  • The Giants signed Guillermo Mota to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Hard to remember when he and Eric Gagne were the door-slammers in the Dodgers bullpen back in 2003.
  • The Dodgers signed ex-Angel Ramon Ortiz to a minor-league deal plus an obligatory spring training invitation. As with Jeff Weaver, it's hard to imagine where he'll end up on the roster, or if he'll even make the 25-man this year. He certainly earned himself a nice footnote in Rockies history by retiring all three Padres he faced in game 163, one of the most exciting regular season games I've ever witnessed.
  • Rotoworld reports the Mariners and Casey Kotchman have arrived at a salary agreement for a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration, in the amount of $3.5M.
  • Update: The Angels announced their spring training non-roster invitee list, which includes such luminaries as Ryan Brasier, Tyler Chatwood, Hank Conger, and Ryan Mount.

Steve Dilbeck Takes Over For Jon Weisman At The Times

With the fairly generically named Dodgers Blog. Angels blogging at the Times is pretty dead, it being Steve Bisheff hasn't posted anything since November, but who am I to complain... I've gone an entire week without writing lately. Sidebar mods coming presently.

February 02, 2010

Ta-Tung Final 4 Set....

Larkin and Logan in Taiwan (Pictured with the Ku-Pao HS baseball team)





*Ta-Tung Cup:
Kao-Yuan and San-Hsin advanced to the semifinals with victories today. San-Hsin defeated Mei-Ho 4-0 while Kao-Yuan shut out Qiang-Shu 9-0.
Lefty ace Sheng-Nan Chen earned the W for Kao-Yuan.
In an unbelievable showing of arm strength/endurance and abuse, San-Hsin went to ace Kuo-Hua Lo yet again in a key quarterfinal matchup. Lo, pitching on one day's rest (credited with a CG - 140 pitches on 1/31), threw another shutout (130 pitches over 9 innings) and in the process - picked up his 3rd win of the tourney (3 G, 0 R, 24 IP, 346 pitches! over an 8 day period).

The semifinals take place tomorrow pitting Kao-Yuan against San-Hsin and Shi-Yuan against Nan-Ying.






*


Shingo Takatsu in his Bulls digs




*Former Bulls C Chun-Chang Yeh will sign with the Brother Elephants.

Not a Rookie: Bud Norris

Houston Astros pitcher Bud Norris  (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Houston Astros pitcher Bud Norris (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Not a Rookie: Bud Norris

Bud Norris was drafted by the Astros in the sixth round in 2006, out of Cal Poly.

His college performance was spotty: 4.55 ERA with a 61/57 K/BB in 111 innings with 118 hits allowed; the strikeout rate was quite low for a guy with good stuff (90-93 MPH, good breaking ball). His inability to dominate college hitters probably cost him a couple of rounds in the draft. However, he was more effective in pro ball, posting a 3.79 ERA with a 46/13 K/BB in 38 innings for Tri City in the New York-Penn League, allowing 28 hits. His K/IP was more than double what he posted in college. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, writing that "I have a good intuitive feel about him, although of course that's impossible to quantify or explain in any way that doesn't make me sound like a lunatic. Not that THAT ever stopped me."

The Astros moved Norris up to Lexington in the Sally League in 2007, where he went just 2-8, 4.75 in 22 starts. He posted a 117/41 K/BB in 97 innings, with 85 hits allowed. Despite the ugly ERA and won-loss record, his K/IP and H/IP marks were very strong and pointed to plenty of upside. He needed to lower his walk rate, but the ERA wasn't a fair representation of how he pitched. His FIP was much better at 3.31. Scouts reported that his fastball improved to 92-96 MPH, and he made some progress refining his breaking ball and changeup. I increased his rating to a Grade B- in the 2008 book, noting that he was a breakout candidate, and "if he can sharpen his command even a little bit, he could dominate."

Promoted to Double-A Corpus Christi for 2008, Norris went 3-8, 4.05 in 19 starts, limited by elbow problems. He continued to post an impressive K/IP ratio with 84 whiffs, while walking 31 and giving up 89 hits. Scouting reports indicated slow but steady progress with fastball command and his hard breaking ball, but his changeup lagged behind and there were concerns that his mechanics stressed his elbow. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever and was very successful, clocked as high as 98 MPH, and last winter it seemed there was a good chance he would end up in the bullpen permanently. I gave him another Grade B- in the '09 book, writing once again that if his command improved he could dominate.

Norris split '09 between Triple-A Round Rock and the majors. In Triple-A he went 4-9, 2.63 with a 112/53 K/BB in 120 innings, allowing 104 hits. . .the walks were still a little higher than ideal, but he continued to post strong K/IP and H/IP marks with a 3.41 FIP. In the majors, he went 6-3, 4.53 with a 54/25 K/BB in 56 innings, allowing 59 hits with a 4.77 FIP, not bad at all for a rookie.

According to fangraphs, Norris' fastball averaged 93.8 MPH in the majors, topping out at 98 MPH. He relied primarily on the fastball and slider, mixing in changeups just 6% of the time. Fangraphs rates his slider as his most effective pitch, which matches the scouting reports I had on him in the minors. He still needs to sharpen up his command, and improving the changeup and using it more often is a good idea. Again, this is all consistent with the minor league reports.

Norris threw 176 innings last year, the most he's ever thrown and more than double his '08 innings. I think the Astros need to monitor his workload carefully this year, especially when he gets past the 100 inning mark. Assuming he avoids further elbow problems, I think Norris will be a league-average pitcher in 2010, then take a larger step forward in 2011.

As an aside, yes, I know that won-loss record means nothing as far as analyzing a pitcher's future goes, but it's at least weird that his career record in the minors was a mere 12-25 (.324), given that his 3.68 ERA was solid and his FIPs were always strong. It looks like Norris was frequently snakebit by poor offensive and defensive support from his minor league teammates. Perhaps this will be something he can take forward, how to bounce back from something when the world breaks against you?

Overall I think he is something of a well-kept secret nationally, and one of the better young pitches who debuted in '09. If still eligible for rookie grading, I'd give him a strong Grade B.


In Another Minor League Deal For The Dodgers, Jeff Weaver Re-Ups

Tim Brown tweets that the Dodgers have re-signed Jeff Weaver to a minor league deal. It's hard to imagine that this was the best he could get, but his history is spotty.

Dodgers Sign Alfredo Amezaga To Minor League Deal

I haven't been as on top of the Dodgers' minor league deals this year as I usually am, but this one is of special interest because it's an ex-Angel: Alfredo Amezaga has signed on a minor league deal with the Dodgers, to make $650k if he makes the team, plus bonuses to $800k.

BPB2010 Geographical Fun Facts...from JERI

Numbers_medium
 

 

Hello, Happy Readers!

Here are some facts about your fellow fans...at least, where they live.

We have readers in 47 states, plus Puerto Rico and DC.

The states with no readers: Idaho, Wyoming and Mississippi.  We are not surprised about the first two, but HEY!  MISSISSIPPI! Get your orders in!  We miss you!  (and you westerners, feel free to order too!)

UPDATE: Woo, hoo...Mississippi came through. Idaho and Wyoming are still slackers though.

The state that most outperformed our expectations:  New York.

The state that sold the most books: California, of course!

The state that sold the 3rd most books: Illinois.

Oklahoma exactly doubled the number of orders over last year.

Iowa went down a little...(bummer, John's home state!)

We sold books in 8 countries other than the US, one more than last year.

There were more orders via snail mail than there have been in about 5 years. 

The bottom line is, we value all our readers, and are grateful for each and every one of you, no matter where you live.

If you want to order the book, click HERE!


A Physical? Why, That Would Cost Money!

Gotta love an organization like the Mets that dares to fly in the face of conventional wisdom.

You know who else loves the Mets' organization? Used car dealers. They practically trip over themselves getting to Omar and Jeff trying to sell them a family wagon where the engine has been replaced by cupcakes and printer ink.

"What? A post trade physical? Come ahhhhhhhhhn! Where's your sense of danger? This world has gotten too safe. Live a little! It's like playing Let's Make A Deal where you never really know what's behind that curtain or in that box. Remember how much fun you had watching Let's Make A Deal when you were a kid? Come on, think positive and man up!!!"

But don't you kids find it fitting that an organization run by businessmen who were taken by a Ponzi scheme would blow something so simple like giving a guy with bone chips in his elbow a physical after trading for him? Because, y'know, damn near every trade ever made in the world in the last thirty years is immediately followed by the words "pending physicals." But not the Mets. Noooooooooo, not them. That's not nearly exciting enough for Mets fans. And excitement is what the Mets are about!

"Well we had no time for a real physical. Physicals cost money, and waste valuable time. And as you know, time is money. And we knew that one day that money would go towards bringing back Fernando Tatis for a third season. So we had a guy come in with a mallet to hit him on the knee and turns out Putz was fine. No no, doc was legit. He took a course."

The best part about the whole l'affaire is the Mets official response (not like the unofficial ones in the italics above.)
"“In our review of the player’s medical records in the acquisition of J.J. Putz, we were aware that he had a bone spur before the trade. He had the same condition in 2008 and was able to pitch with it. J.J. underwent an exam during Spring Training and an additional exam and MRI before he was cleared to play in last year’s World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately the spur did flare up again in May, and he missed the rest of the season."
Ooooooh ... BAZING! What a response!!!!! Except, y'know, it disputes nothing that Putz said in the "controversial" interview.
"When the trade went down last year, I never really had a physical with the Mets,” said Putz. “I had the bone spur (in the right elbow). It was discovered the previous year in Seattle, and it never got checked out by any other doctors until I got to spring training, and the spring training physical is kind of a formality. It was bugging me all through April, and in May I got an injection. It just got to the point where I couldn't pitch. I couldn't throw strikes, my velocity was way down."
Sounds to me like player and team are on the same page! Tremendous!!! Too bad the player is no longer a part of the team he's on the same page with.

But remember, one is an exception, two is a trend.
Putz’s season was over. And he learned a very important lesson: "That it’s my career, and when you know something doesn't feel right, and they want to take these little sidesteps to do something, and just wait and wait and wait, you got to get it taken care of instead of trying to prolong the inevitable."
Vindication ... thy name is Carlos Beltran.

But there was something about the Mets threw into their official response that was telling.
"We are happy to hear he is feeling well, and wish him success with the White Sox."
Yes, we've seen this kind of quote before. Here's the loose translation:
"Jam it where the sun doesn't shine, J.J."
Funny if a Mets doctor had done that, we might not be in this mess.

Yeah, we might still have Aaron Heilman.

"See! We knew what we were doing all along!"