Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen
Brad Bergesen was drafted by the Orioles in the fourth round in 2004, out of high school in Foothill, California. He showed a 90-95 MPH fastball in high school, but his secondary pitches and command needed a lot of work, and he needed to be bought away from the University of San Diego. The Orioles did so, then sent him to the Appy League for his pro debut. He pitched six relief innings, allowing five runs but fanning six with three walks. I put him in the 2005 book as a Grade C prospect, noting his arm strength but also his need for polish and experience.
Bergesen moved up to the New York-Penn League for 2005, going 1-3, 4.82 with a 54/14 K/BB in 71 innings, 89 hits allowed. His walk rate as low, but otherwise his performance was unimpressive. I rated him as a Grade C arm but did not put him in the 2006 book due to space reasons. There are a lot of guys in A-ball like this at any one time, and he didn't stand out statistically or scouting-wise.
Promoted to the Sally League in 2006, Bergesen went 5-4, 4.27 with a 49/10 K/BB in 86 innings, allowing 97 hits. Again, his walk rate was very low, but the K/IP and hit rates were not impressive. He was showing he could throw strikes with his sinker, but his secondary pitches remained substandard. Still a Grade C.
Bergesen began 2007 with Delmarva again, going 7-3, 2.19 with a 73/17 K/BB in 94 innings, 75 hits allowed. Scouts reported he still had the excellent command, and his strikeout rate and hit rates were improved due to a better changeup and slider. However, he went backwards after being moved to the Carolina League, going 3-6, 5.75 in 10 starts with a 35/9 K/BB in 56 innings, 78 hits allowed. Again, the control was there, but the strikeouts and hits slipped again. I still had him as a Grade C.
The turnaround came in 2008. He began at Frederick, posting a 2.08 ERA in 17 innings with a 15/6 K/BB. Promoted to Double-A, he showed that the improvements with his slider and changeup were for real, going 15-6, 3.22 with a 72/27 K/BB in 148 innings, 143 hits. The strikeout rate was still low, but scouting reports were positive.
In the book this year, I wrote that Bergesen's margin for error wasn't great, but "he has a shot at developing into a workhorse inning-eater. . .with some potential to pull a Nick Blackburn on us." I gave him a Grade C+ this year.
Bergesen is indeed pulling a Nick Blackburn, being 5-2, 3.53 in 14 starts for the Orioles, with a 46/19 K/BB in 92 innings, 87 hits allowed.These ratios are extremely similar to what Blackburn did in his surprise season for the Twins last year:
Bergesen 2009 4.5 K/9 1.9 BB/9 8.5 H/9 1.16 WHIP 3.53 ERA
Blackburn 2008 4.5 K/9 1.8 BB/9 10.4 H/9 1.36 WHIP 4.05 ERA
The difference so far is that Bergesen has a lower hit rate this year compared to Blackburn's last year, but everything else is a carbon copy.
Scouting-wise, Blackburn and Bergesen aren't exactly identical, as their pitch/fx data shows: Here is Bergesen pitch/fx Here is Blackburn. Their fastballs has similar movement but their other pitches work differently and they use different areas of the strike zone.
Physicall, Blackburn is two inches taller and throws harder, his fastball averaging 91 MPH as opposed to 89 for Bergesen. Bergesen gets more grounders and has a lower home run allowed rate so far in his career. I still believe that both pitchers have to prove they can succeed consistently; their strikeout rates still concern me as a long-term indicator.
All that said, Bergesen has done very well this year, and as long as he remains healthy he can be an effective strike-throwing inning-eater, a good example of how a pitcher without piles of press clippings and a 97 MPH fastball can sneak up on us if he has a feel for his craft. And the statistical parallel to what Blackburn did last year is uncanny. My psychic powers must have been working well when I wrote that comment.



Last week I looked at the horizontal angle of a ball in play as a function of the location in the zone where it was hit. Although there is some trend for lower pitches to be pulled more, most of the trend is dictated by the horizontal location of the pitch. As expected inside pitches tend to be hit to the pull field and outside pitches more to the opposite field.
Below I reproduce the trend for just the horizontal location. I found the average angle of a ball in play as a function of the horizontal location of the pitch. The center of the strike zone is 0 and negative numbers indicate pitches that are inside to right hand batters and positive numbers outside. The strike zone extends from -1 (inside edge to a RHB ) to 1 (outside edge to a RHB). The angle of a ball in play follows the -45/0/45 convention (-45 is the third base line, 0 2nd base and 45 the first base line), so negative numbers indicate the pull field for a righty.

Starting away and moving towards the batter more and more balls are pulled, with the trend slowing and stopping at about the inside edge of the plate. Here you can see the overall pull tendency. At x=0, the middle of the plate, the average ball is hit to about 7.5° to the pull field and at x=1, the outside edge of the plate, the average ball is hit right up the middle.
I was interested in how this varied by pitch type. I expected that slower pitches would be pulled more, as hitter have more time to 'get around' on such pitches.

The results confirm our expectations. The slower a pitch type the more it is pulled, so that through much of the strike zone the average curveball or changeup is pulled 10° more than the average fastball in the same horizontal location. This shows part of the danger of coming inside with breaking and off-speed pitches. These pitches, if they are hit, will tend to be pulled heavily, which is where most hitters have the greatest power.
I also wanted to see how much speed affected pull, regardless of pitch type. Here I plot the average angle of a ball in play by pitch speed for three horizontal locations, away (but in the zone), down the middle and inside (but in the zone).

The effect of pitch speed is strong, nonlinear and interacts with location. So for inside pitches there is not much effect of speed, the pull rate of a very slow and very fast pitch are not that far off. Similarly there is not a lot of difference in the pull rate of very slow pitches across location, they are all pulled heavily. But outside pitches are strongly affected by pitch speed, with slow ones being pulled and fast ones going to the opposite field. And very fast pitches are strongly influenced by location, with inside ones being pulled and outside ones going to the opposite field.
The results here are not that surprising, but nicely confirm long-held baseball expectations.
A few of our favorite Nats-related quotes from today's papers...
Former Expos manager Felipe Alou, commenting on the sorry state of the Nationals in the Montreal Gazette:
"The way I see it, they are the Washington Nationals now. And they are true to the last few years in Montreal - a last-place team, no fans, a beautiful stadium. It's too sad.
"Hopefully, it'll work in the future, but it's like a warning of some sort."
(Felipe Alou, via Montreal Gazette, 7/3/2009)
Lastings Milledge, from today's Bradenton Herald: He just needs a chance!
"I need a chance, like last year. I just need somebody to believe I can get it done and be patient, because I’m not a very good April, May guy. Sometimes that kind of hurt me. I just need time to play. There’s always going to be somebody breathing down your back, but to the extent where I still have a chance."
(Lastings Milledge, via Bradenton Herald dot com, 7/3/2009)
Mike Rizzo on why Lastings Milledge didn't deserve a fair shake in Washington: Sorry, Lastings, it's about Character!
"It's a huge part of the puzzle...It's a huge part of the makeup of a championship-caliber club. I've been on several championship clubs in the big leagues, and you don't win unless you have guys in the clubhouse that have character, that stick together and that play as a unit."
(Mike Rizzo, via Washington Times, 7/3/2009)
Joel Hanrahan, on why he stunk in Washington, from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: He wasn't pitching inside enough!
"I don't know what it was...I made some good pitches over there that they were getting hits on. I probably wasn't pitching inside enough."
(Joel Hanrahan, via Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 7/3/2009)
Finally, here's DC Lawyer Stanley M. Brand, from today's Washington Post, on why Scott Boras won't be able to pull off his Strasburg-to-Japan trickery:
"It's an important concept under the law," Brand said. Strasburg, he said, "wasn't born [in Japan]. He hasn't voted there. He doesn't own property there. [A claim of residency] looks like what it is: a ruse to get around the draft."
(Stanley Brand, via Washington Post, 7/3/2009)
Imagine you're Kyle Blanks for a moment, a 22-year-old rookie not even a month in the Major Leagues. You're a first baseman by trade, but you're in left field, learning a brand new position and trying to just slide under the radar.The bees (not the Salt Lake variety) left peaceably, and so did the Padres. Of course, as they pointed out in the Angels broadcast tonight, Manny Ramirez is scheduled tomorrow in left at Petco. Huh.The plan is working just fine. It's a sun-splashed day at PETCO Park in the ninth inning in what has become an otherwise forgettable game with most of the crowd of 23,284 long gone as the Padres are trailing the Houston Astros by six runs.
Suddenly, standing there in left field, Blanks notices a bee milling around his head. And then another. He's not allergic to bees, or at least he doesn't think so, but Blanks and bees don't mix, he would say after the game.
"I saw one or two floating around my head, and then I turned around and there was just a wall [of bees]," Blanks said. "There was just a ton of them. I started walking in and tried to get out of there. It's not something I want to tempt."
Who could blame him?
It was probably a smart, as what the Padres estimated were 2,000 bees had flown in from center field, passed high over the left-field seats and then settled down near Blanks in left field.
John Lackey was much better than we've seen him lately, and despite giving up a pair of runs he did it over eight innings, and hooray. Just a great cruise to the finish line for the boys tonight, something they haven't had much of lately.
Before I go: Torii Hunter had several great plays in center, including the last out of the ninth on a difficult running catch off Luke Scott's line drive to left-center with a man on first; miss it, and you've got men on second and third easy, and maybe another run across. I was commenting to Helen after the game how, despite my general aversion to owning player-specific memorabilia after having been burned by David Eckstein, I might think about a Hunter t-shirt. He's that good.
Happy 4th of July weekend, everybody.
And only 24 hours (I hope the bribe of some Angels tickets to the AT&T sales guy worked) until I get my new iPhone 3GS.
Hit and Run, July 2, 2009
**I'm going to start using the Hit-And-Runs to update player grades when appropriate.
**Indians prospect Nick Weglarz got off to a terrible start at Double-A Akron this spring, hitting .089/.243/.143 in April. However, he turned that around with a .329/.431/.624 May and a .281/.434/.573 June, giving him a current line of .248/.381/.479. Another notable part of Weglarz's profile is a reverse platoon split: .276/.415/.539 against lefties (he's a lefty hitter) but just .234/.364/.449 against right-handers. He's also got a sharp home/road split, .269/.407/.529 at home but just .226/.353/.428 in the rest of the Eastern League. Weglarz has always had strong plate discipline (71/78 BB/K last year, 47/54 so far this year) but he's never quite broken out with the big season that scouts have projected. He's hitting .298/.432/.606 since May 1st. . .is the breakout now in progress? It looks possible, but I'm always leery of arguments that begin with "if you take Month X out of the numbers"....the slump counts too. Book Grade was B-, will stick with that.
**He missed much of June with injury, and Jason Heyward hasn't hit quite as well since returning to action at Myrtle Beach, hitting .283 with a .391 SLG since coming off the DL. His season line is still very strong at .292/.367/.519 with 10 homers, but his power production has dropped noticeably since he came back. The 11-game sample size is miniscule, but we need to monitor his power output over the coming weeks to see if it's a random blip or a trend. His plate discipline has remained very strong, so I'm not worried about his approach or his long-term outlook as a prospect. Book grade was A-, will stick with that.
**On the other hand, I am starting to get concerned about Pedro Alvarez. Since moving up to Double-A Altoona, he's 3-for-25 (.120) with one walk and ten strikeouts. All three of his hits have been for extra bases (a double and two homers), but his plate discipline has been terrible. Is he just pressing, or is it finally time to conclude that there is something seriously wrong with him? He hit .247/.342/.486 at Lynchburg, with an impressive 14 homers and 37 walks in 243 at-bats, but he also struck out 70 times in 66 games. Power and patience were his two positives in the Carolina League. If he loses the patience against advanced pitching. . .well, that's obviously not what the Pirates are looking for. It is still way too early to panic here. . .the samples involved are too small. But he obviously needs to make adjustments, and the fact is indisputable that Alvarez has not lived up to his full potential since hurting his wrist at Vanderbilt last spring. And that's just the bat; Carolina League observers I've spoken with are pretty convinced that he'll have to move to first base, increasing the pressure on his bat. Book grade was A-, and I'm reducing that to B+. Further reductions are possible if he doesn't get the bat going by the end of the year.
**Tim Beckham is hitting .283/.342/.417 for Bowling Green, not exceptional performance but not bad. He needs to improve his plate discipline, as his 21/63 BB/K in 284 at-bats isn't particularly good. However, overall he's made progress since his mediocre hitting performance last year in the Appalachian League. Defense is another issue; his range and arm strength are reportedly very impressive, but he's made 27 errors in 60 games and has to improve on his .907 fielding percentage going forward. Given his age, the range and arm strength are more important than the reliability, which should improve in time. All told, Beckham is holding his own, but I expect the Rays will be conservative about promoting him, which makes perfect sense to me. Sticking with the book Grade B+ for now.
**I am planning a trip to Burlington, Iowa, next week, to take a good look at Eric Hosmer, the young Royals pitching, and Brett Lawrie of Wisconsin. Another Midwest League trip should follow the week after that, then I'll swing south again to the Texas League and/or PCL. I intend to be on the road a lot in August. As always, travel commitments are dependent on outside factors, so I have to keep plans loose, but the Burlington thing looks firm.
"We intend to be aggressive."
(Stan Kasten, via Washington Post, 6/9/2009)
All quiet on the Stephen Strasburg front until news broke yesterday that Scott Boras's Land Rover was smashed up outside a restaurant on Monday night (via Costa Del Mar Today, H/T to Deadspin):
Someone caused $2,000 in damage to sports agent Scott Boras’s Land Rover while he was parked at Bandera Restaurant on Monday evening, police records state.
The agent told police that his car was parked in the lot at 3201 East Coast Highway between 9:15 and 10:10 p.m. Monday when someone used an unknown hard, long object (baseball bat maybe?) to strike the front and driver’s side window. No other details were available Wednesday morning.
Anonymous sources with no knowledge of the situation tell the Nationals Enquirer that Stan Kasten was seen fleeing the area; Stan told the Washington Post in June he intends to be aggressive in the Strasburg negotiations with Boras, but this might be taking it too far.
As if going to Pittsburgh for a one game rainout makeup isn't exciting enough, the Mets were also able to catch the phenomenon known as Anthrocon 2009, a convention where people can dress like animals. Boy, it was the club's lucky day ... let alone Kevin Burkhardt's lucky day.
New York, NY (July 1, 2009) – Longtime Brooklyn and LA Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley, sluggers Steve Garvey and Paul O’Neill, longtime umpire Jim Joyce, veteran sportscaster Vin Scully and Ed Lucas, a blind reporter who has covered the Yankees and Mets for more than 40 years, will be inducted into the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday, July 7, 2009 at Noon.The Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame is housed at Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant ( 18 W. 33rd St. ) in Manhattan and, with a blessing from Cooperstown , recognizes current and former players, managers, executives, journalists and entertainers of Irish descent.
The game of baseball has welcomed immigrants from its earliest days -- when an estimated 30 percent of players claimed Irish heritage -- up to today as major league teams regularly sign players born in Latin America, Japan , Canada , and elsewhere. Honorees are chosen based on a combination of factors: impact on the game, popularity, contributions to the community, and, of course, ancestry.
“Our goal is to celebrate the contributions of Irish Americans to the game of baseball, both on and off the field,” said Shaun Clancy, founder of the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame and owner of Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant, where it is housed. “We’re honored that Steve Garvey and Peter O’Malley, who will represent his father and the O’Malley family, are flying in to attend the ceremony.”
“The Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame is the first New York City organization in the past half-century to honor Walter O’Malley. His Dodger teams won four World Series and 11 N.L. Pennants during his years of ownership,” Clancy continued. “Significantly, he was co-owner and legal counsel for the Dodgers when Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947. This part of his resume had as much impact on the game as any of his other accomplishments, which also include his team’s legendary World Series victory in 1955.”
“This is a great honor,” said former Dodger great Steve Garvey, one of the most popular players of the 1970s and early 80s. “I’m as proud of my Irish roots as I am my accomplishments on the baseball field.”
“My father was most proud of his Irish heritage and would have loved this honor, particularly since it is in New York , where he was born,” said Peter O’Malley, son of the longtime Dodgers owner and a former president and owner of the team.
Many of baseball’s biggest stars at the turn of the 20th century were Irish immigrants or their descendants, including Michael “King” Kelly, Roger Connor (the home run king before Babe Ruth), all-time ERA leader Big Ed Walsh and NY Giants manager John McGraw. In fact, the large 1945 class of inductees enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame included nine Irish Americans: Roger Bresnahan, Dan Brouthers, Fred Clarke, Jimmy Collins, Ed Delahanty, Hugh Duffy, Hughie Jennings, King Kelly, and Jim O'Rourke.
Shaun Clancy, an amateur baseball historian, created the Hall after learning about the rich heritage of Irish Americans in the sport dating from its infancy – a legacy that has been overshadowed in recent years by other ethnicities. He decided to celebrate his roots and those who helped make the game great by creating a shrine to Irish Americans in baseball in 2008. Inductees include players, managers, team executives, umpires, journalists, broadcasters, entertainers. In addition to giving each inductee a copy of his plaque, Foley’s will make a donation to Umps Care and Ed Randall’s Bat For The Cure in their names.
“As an immigrant myself, I am so proud of the positive response to the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame from both the inductees and visitors. Learning the game helped me fall in love with America ’s national past time and my adopted homeland,” said Shaun Clancy, owner of Foley’s, which features one of the country’s most extensive public displays of baseball memorabilia outside of Cooperstown . “We’re thrilled to host and celebrate the honorees here today and celebrate their impact on the game and the community.”
The 7x9 inch brass plaques feature the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame logo, an image of each inductee with a brief list of career and personal accomplishments, as well as Irish roots and/or connections and the date of induction. The plaques were designed by engravers Ashburns, Inc.
The “Starting Nine” inductees last year were: the late Mets and Phillies reliever Tug McGraw, Yankee announcer John Flaherty, sportswriter Jeff Horrigan, NY Mets groundskeeper Pete Flynn, retired sluggers Mark McGwire and Sean “The Mayor” Casey, Kevin Costner, star of Field of Dreams and Bull Durham, legendary owner/manager Connie Mack, and longtime official scorer and columnist Red Foley.
About Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant
A popular destination among baseball players, executives, umpires and fans, Foley's NY Pub & Restaurant (www.foleysny.com) is located on 18 W. 33rd St. , across the street from the Empire State Building . The "Irish bar with a baseball attitude" features walls adorned with 2,000 autographed baseballs, hundreds of bobbleheads, game-worn jerseys, stadium seats and other artifacts that make Foley’s the best baseball bar in New York and one of the best sports bars in America.
'Twas the night before Manny, and all through the ball park,
Not a creature was stirring, not even a McCourt;The helmets were hung by the dugout with care,
In hopes that St. Dreadlock soon would be there;
... a funny thing happened on the way to the Dodger Hall of Fame. Martin simply doesn't hit for power anymore. It was a little troubling last season, when Martin followed up his breakout .469-slugging, 19-homer 2007 with a .396 slugging percentage, but I'll never be disappointed in a catcher with a .385 on-base percentage. Besides, Martin was sure to improve this year because of his improved attitude and maturity. He even started doing yoga.It hasn't helped. In the 126-year history of the Dodgers, there have been 34 different seasons in which a catcher has posted a slugging percentage under .300 (with at least 200 plate appearances). The king of these seasons is Bill Bergen, the worst hitter in the history of baseball. Bergen played eight seasons with Brooklyn, from 1904-1911. He has the seven lowest slugging percentages ever by a Dodger catcher, and the only reason he doesn't have eight seasons is because he only had 143 PA. Only six of these sub-.300 seasons have come since 1941. Russell Martin's slugging percentage in 2009 is .298 at essentially the halfway point this season.

This recent trip to Fenway South seemed so promising at its onset, however it was beginning to look more like a disappointment as yesterday afternoon crept into the early evening. The Red Sox entered the 9th inning with zero walks on the day. Dustin Pedroia however quickly turned that around earning the first walk of the day for the Red Sox, as Kevin Youkilis shortly after deposited a two-run HR into the stands, and like that, the Sox were suddenly back in the game. The meat of the order couldn't further convert as Jason Bay (who earned the platinum Golden Sombrero yesterday) and David Ortiz both struck out.
On a side note here, while talking to my Dad about baseball he stated how he's never seen this many Red Sox take so many called third strikes. Of course I disagreed initially here because, well, I am his child and must therefore question everything, but the more I've been watching and thinking about it, I have to agree with him. I don't know if this is a direct result of the modern day ballplayer being more patient at the plate and seeing more pitches per plate appearance, but the hitters seem to be very comfortable now with two strikes. I'm not noticeably seeing them choke up on the bat, close their stance, and swing if it's close, and as my Dad said, Ted Williams would be having a fit if he saw this. I'll be looking into the validity of this more, however keeping an eye open on it, because it's happenig a lot.
So after the back-to-back K's the Sox chances were looking pretty bleak, however with a couple more walks and some magic from the pride of Rhode Island the Sox were able to tie up the game. It only seemed fitting at this point in the series that it'd be Julio Lugo who'd drive in the winning run for the Sox as the weird kept turning. Say what you will about Lugo, but through his entire benching the guy's been a Grade A Professional as he's stayed prepared to play, and has not outwardly complained to the media really about his playing. It can't be easy to be benched in the way he is, and seeing him still come through for us like this is nice to see. Still, what an odd series, and I think some Fenway Loving is more then needed right now. Now about that rain in Boston...
This is the third part of what has been a three part series on the MLB Draft. Part one created a model for the expected value of each draft pick, while part two calculated probabilities of becoming a certain caliber player, as well as expanded on the conclusions in part one.
Today's article focuses on individual teams and how much control they have over the draft process. Is drafting more or less a complete crapshoot, or does the success of a draft vary greatly depending on the front office and the team who is doing the drafting (and oftentimes developing the players as well). Is there much to distinguish a great drafting franchise from a poor one, or is the difference mostly due to luck?
To review, the data I had at hand was gleaned from Sean Smith's WAR database and Baseball Reference, and contained overall picks #1-50, as well as a handful of picks after that (every 5th pick through #100, every 10th pick through #500, and every 25th pick through #1000). While not every pick for every team is covered, this data gives each team a sample of well over 100 draft picks, including all of a team's very high selections. Data used in this study, will focus only on each player's "first six year" WAR, since the team only gains from drafting a valuable player during the years in which it does not have to pay market value. The data is also limited to those players drafted in 2001 or earlier, since more recently drafted players have not had a chance to come up and show their full value.
Draft WAR By Team
So, how did the teams fare? For what it's worth, the table below shows team's drafts based on the sample of picks which I have (which includes all top picks and a smattering of picks after that).
As you can see, the Red Sox are the clear #1, while the Padres, Cubs, and Rangers rank near the bottom. As a Cubs fan, the news comes as no surprise, since for nearly all of my first several years of following the team (I started following in 1987), the Cubs never seemed to have a home grown player contribute to meaningfully to the team. Likewise, it seems as though the Red Sox have had an endless array of talent coming up through their farm system.
Of course, this still doesn't account for the fact that teams have undoubtedly changed a great deal since 1965, and the philosophy and scouting behind a team's drafting and development strategy when the draft first began likely bears no resemblance to the operation of today. Additionally, the WAR Above Average per Pick value is tough to extrapolate to the entire draft since the data I have is heavy on top picks and those top picks have higher WAR and a higher variability in WAR.
While the numbers are interesting, and give a snapshot of how teams have done with their past drafts (again, this is only a sample of picks, not all picks - perhaps another study has shown WAR by team for all picks - if so, that would be superior to the above table), we can't fully get at the question of how large a difference there is between a smart drafting organization and a poor drafting organization without fuller data and a more refined unit of analysis.
Draft WAR by General Manager
Perhaps more relevant than a team's drafting record is the record of individual general managers. For study this I compared 10 current general managers with substantial draft records dating to back before the 2001 draft. I went back and obtained all picks (not just the sample I previously had) for each of these GM's during their tenure so that I had a substantial amount of data to work with.
Comparing each GM's actual WAR to the expected WAR from the model and then comparing the GM's to each other, gives us an idea of how successful each GM has been relative to the others. The table below shows each GM and his drafting record.
As you can see, of the 10 GM's studied, Billy Beane is unsurprisingly at the top of the heap, followed closely by Walt Jocketty, former GM of the Cardinals and current GM of the Cincinnati Reds. Bringing up the rear are Brian Cashman of the Yankees and Brian Sabean of the Giants.
So, Beane has had good drafts and the Sabean has had bad drafts. Is this a real difference, or is this a simple artifact of luck? To investigate this, we first calculate the weighted variance of the GM's WAR Above Average per pick. This observed weighted variance is .036. Then we calculate the expected weighted variance if all teams were equally good at drafting (with an expected WAR Above Average value of 0 and a SD of 2.0, which is the SD of WAR Above Average over all picks). This expected variance is .013. Taking the square root of the difference of the two variances gives an estimate of the standard deviation of the true drafting talent across GM's. (Observed Variance - Expected Variance due to Noise = True Variance). Calculating this with our numbers tells us that the true distribution of GM talent (including scouting, development, etc.) has a standard deviation of .150 WAR per pick.
With each team making about 45 picks per year, this means that the SD of the GM talent over an entire draft is a staggering 6.75 WAR. Basically a good GM will net his team an extra 6 or 7 wins above that of an average GM in a single draft. An outstanding GM (top 3% of all GM's) can net his team 13 wins above that of an average GM. Of course the signs can be reversed when talking about poor GM's. This distribution shows just how valuable a good GM can be. As we can see here, the difference in draft quality is more due to skill than chance (though of course, chance plays a major role), and a good GM and scouting system can make all the difference.
According to Moneyball, Billy Beane at one point was to be essentially traded for Kevin Youkilis. While Youkilis has become an outstanding player, the trade would not have been a good one. Beane, in just 4 years of the draft between 1998-2001, brought the A's essentially the equivalent of a Hall of Fame player, giving the A's 46 extra WAR over what the average GM would have been able to acquire. This advantage was gained on his drafting skills alone, not even accounting for his ability to make expert trades or sign free agents. Of course, time will tell how Beane's drafts will turn out during the years that followed the proposed trade, but the point is made - GM's have an enormous impact on a team's successes, even when considering their ability to draft alone.
Even when we scale back the WAR Above Average per Pick by about 25% to account for the regression effect (.15 estimated true standard deviation divided by the .20 observed standard deviation = .75), we still find that Beane is good for about 9 extra WAR per draft, while Sabean and Cashman are losing their teams about 9 WAR per draft.
Unfortunately, because draft picks take so long to develop, it makes it difficult to tell in "real time" how a GM is doing. However, this short study of 10 current long-time GM's shows us just how valuable a good GM can be.
Update: The Cubs have DFA'd Ryan Freel, according to an unsourced report from Al Yellon.
A fan post at Purple Row cites the return as Andy Alburquerque according to a report by Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago.
Such projects back then cost about $50,000. Jackson was letting his inspiration run free to the tune of $1 million. That raised the question of how he was going to pay for it. Branca had an inspiration of his own."He suggested we make a separate video filmed by somebody else about the making of the 'Thriller' video," Jackson recalled in his autobiography. "It seemed odd that no one had ever thought of this before."
Branca pitched the idea to MTV and Showtime. He came back with $1.2 million in financing.
The deal still might have fallen apart because Jackson's mother was a Jehovah's Witness and some of her fellow congregants suggested he was supporting evil by appearing as a werewolf.
Jackson was reportedly poised to scratch both the video and the video about the video when Branca pitched another idea, this one to the star. Branca noted that Bela Lugosi had resolved religious misgivings about portraying Dracula by insisting on a note at the start of the film saying he was in no way pro-vampire.
The chatter arose Wednesday after a local blog reported hearing on a national radio broadcast the team had borrowed $15 million from MLB to make its most recent payroll obligations and to fund ongoing operations. Asked about the reports, Hicks referred questions to team spokesman John Blake, who said the team would have no comment on the financial situation. Club president Nolan Ryan declined to comment after the Rangers’ 9-7 win over Los Angeles, which pulled them within a half game of the Angels in the AL West.
Club sources, however, said the team has paid its employees for the most recent pay period and that Hicks remains in control of the organization. According to a source familiar with the situation, the Rangers are continuing normal operating procedures and have financial resources to sign both draft picks and international free agents. The source, however, did not mention the possibility of increasing payroll at the trading deadline.
According to a source, a scenario has been in place for several weeks that would have allowed the Rangers to borrow from the MLB fund. It would not mean MLB would take control of the club, but under those circumstances, it’s likely MLB would have much more say on spending matters. The Rangers top two draft picks, LHP Matt Purke and RHP Tanner Scheppers, are both demanding bonuses well in excess of the current MLB-recommended “slotting” system.
The box tells me that Clayton Kershaw wobbled through five, giving up as many walks as strikeouts (five apiece); the Dodgers' steady bullpen did the rest. On the other side of the game, Jason Hammel pitched a complete game and lost, a fact that may have been yet another Jim Tracy boneheaded maneuver. That is, knowing you have to face Broxton in the ninth with a Dodger lead, why leave your starter in there?
In any case, Hammel appears to be one of the nicer little trades the Rockies have executed in some time, getting a 26-year-old starter with an ERA+ of 116 with 7 quality starts in 13 tries, that mostly because he hasn't met the innings requirement. Outside of three bad starts on May 8, May 30, and June 20, he's been a very solid performer for the Rockies. In fact, here's something I hadn't even suspected about the Rockies this year: four of their five pitchers in the starting rotation have an ERA+ well over 100. They're righting the ship over there.
And, oh yeah, win #50. Good show, guys.
About the only thing worse to see was Torii Hunter wincing during his at-bat in the top of the ninth; he appeared to be clutching at his belt, which could be a really serious sports hernia of some kind. Let's hope it isn't.
Vlad must never attempt to steal a base this season, again. I didn't see Chone Figgins leadoff auto-erasure to lead off the ninth, trying to stretch a double into a triple, but from the radio call, it sounded like a really stupid maneuver.
So it's everyone on the bus ... team unity and such. But hey, it worked. So who am I to argue? At last check, the Mets bus made a stop along I-90 so that winning pitcher Mike Pelfrey could solve a groovy mystery on the way to Pittsburgh. Here's hoping nobody gets thrown under it before the all-star break. Kumbaya!
"It's been a long year for us. Everything [goes] right for them every time they play us. We made some errors; we're not able to bring guys home from third with less than two out; our bullpen's not doing the job. It's just a combination of everything."
(Julian Tavarez, via Washington Post, 7/1/2009)
According to sources with no knowledge of the situation, the Nationals just stranded another runner on base.
Hey, nice debut for Sean "Burn Baby Burn" Burnett and his crooked cap! He'll fit right in around here - blows the lead to the first batter he faced as a National in the 7th; Julian Tavarez and Mike MacDougal team up to blow the game in the 8th.
Another wasted effort: Solid start for Jordan Zimmermann; plus 2 hits and an RBI. But he needed to go nine today to win this one.
Silver lining: Just one E for Ryan Zimmerman!

Somebody needs to FIX IT! Image by Brent and MariLynn via Flickr
“That’s the way it goes, man,” Arroyo said. “There’s nothing to say as far as why I’m giving up so many homers. I’ve always given up a decent amount. Physically, I feel good. I feel strong. I’m able to throw 90 if I need it.The following all comes from his fangraphs page.
“I’m in one of those ruts where I can’t get over the hump, get on the plus side, winning 3-0, 4-1. I’ve been chasing it the last couple times. All you can do is take the ball every fifth day and try to dig yourself out of it.”

What I'm seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I've long believed that Bronson's bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.
The Reds need Eddie to come back strong. Image by Getty Images via Daylife


Watching this game slip like sand through the Sox fingers was as painful as watching a sunburn grow in redness on an unprotected forearm through a salty sunglasses view. Immediately after the "two-out walk-off the field incident" the game took a drastic turn for the bad, and our untouchable bullpen suddenly was fondled at will by the O's, as they ringed out hit-after-hit. I'm not going to dwell too much on this game, however the loss of the game along with Mike Lowell to the DL is helping make the Red Sox appear much less intimidating, and helps bring us back to down to the harsh competitive realities that the AL East presents. It looked like the Sox may have been able to put a decent gap in the division entering the All-Star break, however the continued competition should be expected, and you just hope their fight stays there. Coming into June we were down half a game to the Yanks, and exiteing June we're currentlly 2.5 games up, so all-in-all it's been a great month.
Beckett's the perfect pitcher to have on the mound today though, and while I'm at work, I'll be listening via MLB Audio, and you can follow my thoughts on the game via Twitter here: http://www.twitter.com/sawxblog
Let's Go Sox!
Austin Kearns, Ronnie Belliard somehow survive Mike Rizzo's axe for another day.
Rizzo and Manny Acta say it's for Dukes' own good, but we don't believe they believe that for a second. Our "sources" with no knowledge of the situation say there's a 50/50 chance you'll never see Elijah Dukes in a Washington Nationals uniform again.
"I didn't see the consistent at-bats I wanted Elijah to have. I think he understands this is a developmental process... He can use this time to right himself down there."
(Mike Rizzo, via Nationals Journal, 7/1/2009)"He's not a finished product. Obviously, he was in a little bit of a slump the last month here. He needs to get down there and get his swing back. But for the most part, just work on his overall game. He's still very young and talented, and that's basically it. I don't think we were going to be doing him any help by just sitting him here."
(Manny Acta, via Chatter, 7/1/2009)
And so, it's the beginning of the end of the Elijah Dukes Era in D.C. Manny Acta hates him (or, rather, strongly dislikes him, since, as Manny pointed out on his blog yesterday, "I try not to use the hate word in my vocabulary."). Mike Rizzo hates him. And his teammates...well, we're guessing the Nationals clubhouse is a happier place today.
Then there's this interesting tidbit from the Washington Times' Mark Zuckerman. Dukes showed up late to work today just before learning of his demotion. Maybe he should've called in sick?
There is one other angle to all this, of course, and that is Dukes' non-playing issues. There are still plenty of people in the organization that don't believe he has the right attitude to succeed up here. And that feeling was only strengthened when Dukes reported late to the ballpark this morning. Yep, players were supposed to be dressed by 10 a.m. Dukes didn't arrive until after that, at which point he was told of his demotion. (via Chatter, 7/1/2009)