“I’m even madder now. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? Yeah Dodger fans, He’s being as if he’s returning from Iraq or something. “The club has done nothing during the suspension but coddle him and treat him as if he had suffered some life-threatening disease or something and he was trying to make a valiant comeback. “Basically the Dodgers and their fans - a lot of their fans, not all of them, but a lot of them - have pretty much accepted steroids in saying, ‘It’s no big deal. Glad to have you back, Manny. Sorry you were gone.’ It’s all that sort of thing. So it’s really kind of disconcerting. “He’s lost $7 million. I undestand that. Otherwise, it’s been the best summer of Manny Ramirez’s life. “First time in baseball history that a team will devote a section of its stands for people who want to cheer a drug cheat.”

“Thick wavy hair, a little too long”.. From Shadow Morton to shadow Manny! In a further sign of interest in the game, Fox’s Prime Ticket will add an extra right-field camera for the event. The RSN will also have a special road edition of the “Dodgers Live” pregame and postgame show to cover Manny’s return. No word on whether Manny will do to the Western Metal Building what he did to the inside of Green Monster scoreboard, but if so, cameras will be at the ready from every angle. It all is the circus that is Manny being Manny, and you can bet your dreadlock wig that the Dodgers will be the beneficiary of the return at the cash registers, regardless of whether he comes back in mid-season form. For MLB, it means moving past a potentially embarrassing moment, or rather, a moment that was embarrassing, but had a player with incredible barstool likeability at its center. Baseball surely must be signing in relief knowing that Ramirez won’t be in the All-Star Game, unless Charlie Manuel selects him, a long shot to say the least.

I can honestly say I have never heard of this Garrett Jones before.  He’s almost a year younger than Nyjer Morgan and apparently got 77 at-bats with the Twins two years ago. “This is what he’s been doing the whole year—driving the ball,” said Andrew McCutchen, who was Jones’ teammates at Triple-A for two months earlier this season. “When they make a mistake, he makes them pay. It’s real good to have someone like that there.” Jones would then cap his day with a solo homer off Mets reliever Pedro Feliciano in the seventh. “That’s what we knew Garrett could do,” Russell said. “He can provide some punch in the offense. Offensively, we got him in there and some guys started swinging better. That’s what we’re looking for, what we did today.” Jones, who said he has never hit for the cycle at any level, had two other at-bats in the game with which to get a single. He nearly got it in the fifth, when he lined out to reliever Brian Stokes. In the ninth, Jones grounded out to second. Russell has said that he intends to give Jones every opportunity to prove himself as an everyday starter, and Thursday’s…Read More ...

Bah...rumors, rumors. Remember when it was rumored that Don Mincher had invented drooping tear-drop eyeglasses? Wasn’t true. Indians higher-ups say they aren’t likely to trade hitting star Victor Martinez. Not only is Martinez one of the better hitters in baseball, with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs and .313 batting average, but the Indians hold a bargain 2010 club option on Martinez for $7 million. A trade for Martinez still has to be considered something of a long shot. Yet, within the past day or two the Indians dispatched a scout to check out the progress of Boston’s best prospects, according to a league source. The Indians, a realistic early seller, may only be covering their bases. But of course, it could develop into something more, as Boston’s interest in Martinez is well known. Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell’s recurrence of hip trouble has at least temporarily opened first base for Boston (since Kevin Youkilis has switched over to third base). The Red Sox have been seeking offensive aid for months with their protracted winter pursuit of Mark Teixeira and a much shorter try for Hanley Ramirez. Boston is also one of a couple teams that could match up nicely with…Read More ...

This is a blog post about a post by Evan Grant responding to a blog post by Rob Neyer commenting on a blog post by R.J. Anderson. That I came across on Facebook...whew! So this may be a bit meta. In a nutshell, Grant takes issue with Neyer’s endorsement of Anderson’s point, which is that Kevin Millwood hasn’t really been any better this year than in the past few years. Evan makes clear his thoughts on Millwood right off the bat: By almost any evaluation, Millwood has been one of the top five or six pitchers in the AL this season. I guess the problem is how one defines “top pitcher.” In terms of runs allowed or ERA, absolutely, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the league. But when we talk about runs allowed or ERA, we mustn’t forget the Tenth Noble Truth of Bill James: 10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.

• Eric Byrnes - There is no trade market for him, and he’s back on the disabled list. It might be time to consider just eating what’s left on his deal so everybody can move on. ... • Felipe Lopez - Has been everything the Diamondbacks expected when they signed him to a one-year deal to replace Orlando Hudson. Has some value despite his mental lapses. Atlanta needs help at second base. ... • Brandon Webb - The ace of the staff hasn’t played since Opening Day. Team has a difficult decision to make about whether to pick up his contract option next season. ... • Doug Davis - Just the kind of player the buyers will want. Milwaukee and Philadelphia might be interested.

What, you didn’t know Socrates was a baseball junkie? You thought Plato and Nietzsche were so above it all they didn’t have a favorite National League team? Yeah, stupid me, I had no idea either. But this week I paid a visit to my local house of all things psychic: Tattered Glove Palm Reading of Chavez Ravine. With Manny Ramirez back Friday, L.A. is now confronted with a bulked-up existential question: How should we view those who have cheated the system by using banned substances? What should we think of those who appear willing to do anything to win? How do we forgive? Searching for answers, I convened an emergency meeting with the spirits of some of the prime shapers of Western thought. It actually wasn’t hard to get this group together; it’s a little-known fact they have been meeting regularly to philosophize on baseball since the White Sox World Series scandal of 1919. First up? Socrates (Manny-applicable quote: “An honest man is always a child."). What, I asked, do we make of this Ramirez mess? “Well, let me say it is good, my friend, that you’re asking questions. That’s what I’m all about: pondering. The most important question is this:…Read More ...

So instead, the reaction to Manny, from Albuquerque to Ensenada, has been—what else?—downright hero worship. You’d think the guy had spent the past 57 days curing cancer, dousing tensions in Iran and smoothing out plot glitches for the final season of “Lost.” But why? That’s the question we’ve been struggling with since Manny-mania busted out in Albuquerque last week. Why is America so ready to forgive this guy, of all guys? Because he has fun hair? Because he has a lovable smile? Because he has a long, not necessarily proud, history as baseball’s foremost goofball? Why would that be enough to outweigh his disgraceful exit from Boston, his indisputable guilt in this case and the dubious alibi his spin doctors typed up to explain his way out of this mess? Why? We posed that question to four men who have thought about it a lot themselves: esteemed Columbia School of Journalism professor Sandy Padwe, cerebral journalist/author Robert Lipsyte and two of the most thoughtful players we have ever covered, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt and a man who has turned into an official New York Times op-ed columnist, Doug Glanville.

Paul Lo Duca Position: Catcher How it went down: On Dec. 13, 2007, Lo Duca was cited in the Mitchell Report as a user of steroids and human growth hormone. He was also accused of referring former Dodgers teammates Eric Gagne and Kevin Brown to his drug supplier. Upon his arrival with the Washington Nationals on Feb. 17, 2008, Lo Duca issued a statement in which he apologized for “mistakes in judgment,” but he did not say what those mistakes entailed. How he fared on the field: Lo Duca started the 2008 season in Washington as the team’s least productive batter, hitting .200 in 50 at-bats. He then fractured his right hand and went on the disabled list from early May to mid-June. The Nationals released him July 31, 2008, after he batted .230 with no home runs and 12 runs batted in in 139 at-bats. The Florida Marlins picked Lo Duca up in a minor league deal on Aug. 8 and he was called up eight days later, hitting .294 with three RBIs in 34 at-bats. He became a free agent after the season and remains unsigned. Andy Pettitte Position: P How it went down: On Dec. 13, 2007, Pettitte…Read More ...

FOUND! Rare footage of Sam actually finding David. We need David Norman back for eyes-own assessments of minor leaguers. Very few of my business trips take me to Danville or Myrtle Beach. Nonetheless, some notes of interest from the farm. The Myrtle Beach Sun News confirms that three Pelicans have been promoted to AA-Mississippi. Top of the class is the Braves offensive version of Tommy Hanson. Jason Heyward is only 19 but was tearing up Carolina League pitching to the tune of 296/369/519. That .519 SLG% stands out considering his home park is notoriously pitcher friendly. Heyward projects to relieve Atlanta of our long Frenchified nightmare in RF come 2011. If he fares well in MS this year he could skip AAA-Gwinnett altogether. He’s that good. Heyward is to Tommy Hanson as Freddie Freeman is to Kris Medlen. Overshadowed and rightly so, Freeman still projects to take over 1B in Atlanta about the same time Casey Kotchman goes free agent (2011.) Freeman posted a better than respectable 302/394/447, again in MB’s power-killing Coastal Field. Pelican closer Thomas Palica gets the call to MS as well. The 21 year old was striking out a man an inning with decent K/BB rates, continuing…Read More ...

Right field: Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta: Apologies to Justin Upton, but when baseball no longer has a place for the likes of Francoeur, a player so extravagantly talented that he can hold down a major league job despite seemingly having little more idea of what to do with that talent than a tomcat, baseball will no longer be worth watching. May as well agitate for a contract extension while you’re at it, Tim. Sheesh.

Screw Hanley Ramirez...Morneau’s already a top run producer! Justin Morneau: Elite Run Producer, or lucky to be batting behind Joe Mauer? Over the past three years, no one on the Minnesota Twins has driven in more runs than the 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau: 2006: 130 RBI 2007: 111 RBI 2008: 129 RBI That’s a lot of RBIs. Buthow much of this is Morneau the elite run producer, and how much does he take advantage of hitting behind one of the truly elite OBP guys in Joe Mauer? Let’s take a look at the number of RBI opportunities Morneau has had relative to the rest of MLB. “Expected" Runs Batted In How do we normalize each batter’s RBI opportunities? First we must create a baseline. I collected data from the entire 2008 and partial 2009 (through 7/1) seasons, counting the total number of RBI for each inning situation (e.g., one out, runner on second base). I used this data to calculate the average number of RBI that one would “expect” a batter to drive in for a given situation. I call this “Expected RBI”, or “eRBI”. Not surprisingly, bases empty, zero or one out (0.028 eRBI) is the least RBI-friendly situation, and…Read More ...

Diane, LaVern, Josephine...hell, even Ginger. But Dusty? For example, I posted the numbers in last night’s game thread that Taveras had led off 16 games where he has failed to get on base even a single time. The Reds are not only 3-13 in those games, but 5 of those 13 losses are by 2 runs or less. Sure, 3 of those 13 losses were blowouts, so it probably doesn’t matter if we had Bonds leading off, but the Reds could VERY reasonably be in 5-10 more games this year with one SIMPLE SIMPLE change. That’s a potentially HUGE impact. Think about it, it’s a pretty crazy stat. All you need is 2-3 more runs over those games, which should be SUPER easy because we are talking about replacing 0 (or even NEGATIVE) production. The Reds have been among the worst teams in baseball for a handful of years now. But a lot of the time, it has been because of a bad GM signing bad players — in particular pitchers — and the Reds manager not having much choice. In this case, Dusty has options…the fault falls squarely on him (not on Willy). Is this the single worst thing a…Read More ...

What happens when you cross Gainesville, Fla., with Topton, Pennsylvania? You get a name like Cedrick Bowers, 31-year-old left-handed reliever with the IronPigs. What’s not to love about a 1.43 ERA and .169 BAA over 37 2-3 innings? Mr. Bowers, a name that if you yelled loudly at the Kutztown Folk Festival, no fewer than 10 men would turn and look, was once a fourth-round pick Chuck Lamar’s Devil Rays in 1996 and, much like Les Walrond (the name you...

The Jerk Who Saved Baseball By Jonathan Eig, Washington Post Sunday, July 5, 2009 Manny Ramirez returned to the majors this weekend, to the delight of Dodgers fans, following a 50-game suspension. Yet, when the news broke in early May that Los Angeles’s star outfielder would be punished for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy, it was another slugger who called a news conference—Jose Canseco, best-selling author and baseball’s steroidal sage. . . .

The Toronto Blue Jays called up outfielder/designated hitter David Delluci from Triple-A Las Vegas on Friday morning in New York. He is the left-handed bat manager Cito Gaston hopes might add balance to his lineup. The move had been anticipated since Wednesday when Russ Adams was seen getting handshakes from teammates after Toronto closed out its nine-game home stand at the Rogers Centre. Adams, who hit .238 in eight games with the Blue Jays, was designated for assignment and must be traded, released or re-assigned within 10 days. Thanks to Geo.

Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen

Brad Bergesen was drafted by the Orioles in the fourth round in 2004, out of high school in Foothill, California. He showed a 90-95 MPH fastball in high school, but his secondary pitches and command needed a lot of work, and he needed to be bought away from the University of San Diego. The Orioles did so, then sent him to the Appy League for his pro debut. He pitched six relief innings, allowing five runs but fanning six with three walks. I put him in the 2005 book as a Grade C prospect, noting his arm strength but also his need for polish and experience.

Bergesen moved up to the New York-Penn League for 2005, going 1-3, 4.82 with a 54/14 K/BB in 71 innings, 89 hits allowed. His walk rate as low, but otherwise his performance was unimpressive. I rated him as a Grade C arm but did not put him in the 2006 book due to space reasons. There are a lot of guys in A-ball like this at any one time, and he didn't stand out statistically or scouting-wise.

Promoted to the Sally League in 2006, Bergesen went 5-4, 4.27 with a 49/10 K/BB in 86 innings, allowing 97 hits. Again, his walk rate was very low, but the K/IP and hit rates were not impressive. He was showing he could throw strikes with his sinker, but his secondary pitches remained substandard. Still a Grade C.

Bergesen began 2007 with Delmarva again, going 7-3, 2.19 with a 73/17 K/BB in 94 innings, 75 hits allowed. Scouts reported he still had the excellent command, and his strikeout rate and hit rates were improved due to a better changeup and slider. However, he went backwards after being moved to the Carolina League, going 3-6, 5.75 in 10 starts with a 35/9 K/BB in 56 innings, 78 hits allowed. Again, the control was there, but the strikeouts and hits slipped again. I still had him as a Grade C.

The turnaround came in 2008. He began at Frederick, posting a 2.08 ERA in 17 innings with a 15/6 K/BB. Promoted to Double-A, he showed that the improvements with his slider and changeup were for real, going 15-6, 3.22 with a 72/27 K/BB in 148 innings, 143 hits. The strikeout rate was still low, but scouting reports were positive.

In the book this year, I wrote that Bergesen's margin for error wasn't great, but "he has a shot at developing into a workhorse inning-eater. . .with some potential to pull a Nick Blackburn on us." I gave him a Grade C+ this year.

Bergesen is indeed pulling a Nick Blackburn, being 5-2, 3.53 in 14 starts for the Orioles, with a 46/19 K/BB in 92 innings, 87 hits allowed.These ratios are extremely similar to what Blackburn did in his surprise season for the Twins last year:

Bergesen   2009   4.5  K/9   1.9  BB/9    8.5   H/9    1.16 WHIP    3.53 ERA
Blackburn   2008   4.5 K/9    1.8  BB/9   10.4  H/9   1.36  WHIP   4.05 ERA

The difference so far is that Bergesen has a lower hit rate this year compared to Blackburn's last year, but everything else is a carbon copy.

Scouting-wise, Blackburn and Bergesen aren't exactly identical, as their pitch/fx data shows: Here is Bergesen pitch/fx   Here is Blackburn. Their fastballs has similar movement but their other pitches work differently and they use different areas of the strike zone.

Physicall, Blackburn is two inches taller and throws harder, his fastball averaging 91 MPH as opposed to 89 for Bergesen. Bergesen gets more grounders and has a lower home run allowed rate so far in his career. I still believe that both pitchers have to prove they can succeed consistently; their strikeout rates still concern me as a long-term indicator.

All that said, Bergesen has done very well this year, and as long as he remains healthy he can be an effective strike-throwing inning-eater, a good example of how a pitcher without piles of press clippings and a 97 MPH fastball can sneak up on us if he has a feel for his craft. And the statistical parallel to what Blackburn did last year is uncanny. My psychic powers must have been working well when I wrote that comment.

Try as they might, the Mets simply couldn't give this game away but perhaps that's what happens when you meet your Triple AAA match in a Major League game.


Capps could certainly dunk on Tatis, if it ever came up...

Tim Redding, the post-modern Ollie Perez, was absolute rubbish yesterday, an embarrassment to all pitchers, worldwide, lasting only one out into the third inning before giving way to the likes of Nowhereman Misch after nearly blowing the game early, 5 earned runs, 6 hits, two walks and a hit batsman as the Mets fell behind by what in most Met games is an insurmountable 5-0 margin.


It's raining Met victories all the sudden, two in a row...

I don't know about the rest of you but it was about then I was torn between vomiting in disgust and finishing construction of my Tim Redding Urinal Cakes.

But lo and behold, these Pirates, they are determined to stink worse than the Mets and even against a marginal lineup with a semi-pro batting order feel to it, their pitching managed to surrender that lead over the course of the 4th and 5th innings, punctuated in a way, by Murph's improbable pinch hit, two-run double to raise his batting average ALL the way up to .245. Simply dizzying. By the 7th, the Mets were actually WINNING by 3 runs.

Of course, not to be outdone, after three impressive shut out innings of relief, Pedro Feliciano managed to give one of those runs back before Sean Green of all people turned off the faucets to lead the red carpet glory way to Frankie Boy.

Now Frankie Boy, to be fair, hasn't had much to do lately. Over the last 9 days he's seen action only 3 times and if there's any closer who needs work and lots of it to stay warm, it's Frankie Boy. Still, blowing a two-run lead to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 9th borders on criminal negligence and for the second time in one game, it felt near certain that the Mets were going to lose yet again.

But the incompetence of the Pirates came to the rescue again, as Matt Capps retired the first two Mets (oh, a strikeout by David Wright when it matters - shocking) before mysteriously hitting the Human Bullseye, Fernando Tatis who was then allowed to steal second so Ryan Church could drive in the winning run.


The anti-Wright, drives the winner home...

That's 10 hits in his last 18 at bats for Mr Church who could show David Wright a thing or two about hitting in the clutch.

And then Frankie Boy, out to redeem himself, set them down 1-2-3 in the 10th, 48 pitches later, the victory, by default to the Mets.

*****

In anticipation of nightmares in Philly, here is the Mets All-Nightmare Team. My only quibble is that Rey Ordonez didn't make it as starting shortstop.

And of course, not to be missed: The Metsterpiece Theatre, best show on earth:

One thing you can say about these Royals: They are reliable. I went out Thursday night with the tentative idea of writing about the remarkably bad base running they have exhibited this year. And it has been legendarily bad. But here’s the thing about choosing a column topic before the game — the game has a knack of killing early ideas. I mean: If you go out to write about how well a team is pitching, the starter probably will give up nine runs. If you go out to write about how well a team is fielding, they’ll make three errors. It’s just how things work. So, I had backup plans if the Royals ran the bases well on this night. I was open to writing something else if the Royals had given me something else. I should not have worried about it. First inning, Willie Bloomquist was on first and he took off on what looked like a hit-and-run play. Billy Butler hit a lazy fly ball to center field … Bloomquist did not see it. “Willie checked and couldn’t pick it up,” Royals manager Trey Hillman said. White Sox center fielder Brian Anderson caught the pop-up, had plenty of…Read More ...

But to be great at such a solitary task a lot of other things had to suffer. As the film points out, those included three wives and as many children. For years, it also included the fans who bellowed his name but also booed it because as great as he was he never beat the Yankees and didn’t deliver in the only World Series he played. Williams wept after his Series failures against the St. Louis Cardinals in 1946, when he had only five singles and one RBI in 25 at bats, but the fans didn’t. They booed out of frustration and because he often was, like many geniuses, a temperamental cuss so obsessed with one act that there was little room for niceties. After stroking the ultimate “walkoff” home run in his final at-bat at the age of 41, Williams was sent back to left field. Trotting behind him was his replacement, Carroll Hardy. It was a last chance for his fans to cheer and him to acknowledge them. He didn’t. According to Pumpsie Green, the shortstop that day and the first black player in Red Sox history, Williams mumbled as he went by, “Isn’t this a crock?” What wasn’t…Read More ...

It’s come to this: The Cleveland Indians are off today, but if they lose tomorrow night’s game against the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field, they’ll reach the season’s halfway point with a 31-50 record. Double that, and it’s 62-100, which would be the sixth 100-loss campaign in the 109-year history of the franchise. ... 1971, 60-102 Besides the eight fielders who started the most games at each position, the other 13 position players combined to hit .204 (302 of 1,484), which is really bad. None of those guys batted above .225. Once-promising pitcher Steve Hargan was 1-13, allowing 200 baserunners in 113 1/3 innings. Nobody wanted to see this team. The Indians drew 22,036 fans to their last eight games at old Cleveland Municipal Stadium, an average of 2,755. In their final three road games, at Washington against the Senators, a total of 4,512 crazies showed up - an average of 1,504. The Senators moved after the season to Texas, where they remain as the Rangers. plus, Eric Wedge, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez: Should they stay or should they go? and Cleveland Indians add yet another bullpen pitcher, acquiring Winston Abreu from Tampa Bay

Manny Acta spoke earlier this season about “changing the culture” around the Washington Nationals’ clubhouse, a veiled reference to what he believed was an aspect of the organization’s rebuilding effort just as important as drafting top prospects and making smart trades. The Nationals’ clubhouse the last two seasons boasted too many players who, while possessing talent, didn’t stack up in the character department. Plenty of people in the organization said that has been a significant factor in Washington’s losing record and poor reputation around the sport. Slowly but surely, though, the Nationals are attempting to fix that problem. And two major transactions this week underscored that. On Tuesday, the Nationals traded Class AAA Syracuse outfielder Lastings Milledge and reliever Joel Hanrahan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Nyjer Morgan and left-hander Sean Burnett. The deal made sense because Washington needed a good defensive center fielder and a reliable reliever, but both Acta and acting general manager Mike Rizzo went out of their way to laud Morgan and Burnett as “good character” guys who would have a positive influence in the clubhouse. plus, the Washington Post says Dukes Won’t Be Around To Run

At least Merv didn’t call him a young rascal or something… Part of the reason batters wear helmets with earflaps nowadays is the unfortunate incident that happened to Red Sox star Tony Conigliaro back in 1967. Just two seasons removed from leading the league in homers as a 22-year-old, the outfielder was smashed in the face by a Jack Hamilton pitch, crumpling to the ground with a broken cheekbone and a damaged retina. His career lasted a few more productive years before he was forced to retire due to worsening eyesight. At the same time his baseball career was taking off, he was signed by RCA Victor to a recording contract and made a few appearances on the Merv Griffin show, as evidenced below:

The Major League Rules is a sprawling, dense, little-known, 254-page document, periodically updated, that governs the business side of baseball. Among other things, it lays out, in painstaking legalese, the process and guidelines for the sport’s annual draft, and in recent years, these sections have provided a road map for a certain notorious agent bent on circumventing the draft itself. In 1996, agent Scott Boras exploited a loophole to help gain free agency for four draftees who did not receive contract offers from the teams that selected them within 15 days of the draft, as required. A year later, he unsuccessfully attempted to make Philadelphia Phillies draftee J.D. Drew a free agent by taking him to the independent Northern League and thus changing his official status from “amateur” to “professional.” This summer, Boras has another high-profile client, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg, for whom he would love nothing more than to blow apart baseball’s draft system, allowing Strasburg to be compensated in line with his talent—his asking price is believed to be around $50 million—as opposed to within the parameters of the current system, in which no player has ever received more than $10.5 million. Even before talks began with…Read More ...

We’ve got a habit of forgetting that professional athletes are subject to a lot of the same difficulties in life as everyone else. Whether because of their salaries or their fame, it’s often assumed that life is easier for them. This baseball season is telling a different story, however. We’ve seen several players head to the disabled list with diagnoses of anxiety or stress disorders. Last week Ian Snell of the Pirates raised some eyebrows when he admitted that he asked to be sent down to AAA, a move that seemed odd until he admitted on Wednesday that he’d been dealing with suicidal thoughts during his time in the big leagues. Coming on the heels of the struggles of Khalil Greene, Joey Votto and Dontrelle Willis, Snell’s issues cast further light on an issue that has probably always been part of the lives of baseball players but was rarely spoken about. Major League Baseball’s official party line is that mental illness is treated no differently than physical injury, but that’s only half the story.

Not sure who’s working today, but if you are, this might be a pleasant distraction from your toils.

And do Drunkard’s Walk more than DiMaggio did? All this and more! DiMaggio’s hitting streak was an inspiration in troubled times. The pursuit of any record comes with pressure—Roger Maris lost some of his hair during his attempt to break Babe Ruth’s home-run record in 1961—but most records forgive you an off day as long as you compensate at other times. Not so with a streak, which demands unwavering performance. And so DiMaggio’s streak has been interpreted as a feat of mythic proportion, seen as a heroic, even miraculous, spurt of unrivaled effort and concentration. But was it? Or was this epic moment simply a fluke? Recent academic studies have questioned whether DiMaggio’s streak is unambiguous evidence of a spurt of ability that exceeded his everyday talent, rather than an anomaly to be expected from some highly talented player, in some year, by chance, something like the occasional 150-yard drive in golf that culminates in a hole in one. No one is saying that talent doesn’t matter. They are just asking whether a similar streak would have happened sometime in the history of baseball even if each player hit with the unheroic and unmiraculous—but steady—ability of an emotionless robot. That randomness…Read More ...

Ratatat Remixes Vol. 3? La Russa cares only about a player’s contribution to the success of the team. He has always had a reputation as a veterans’ manager and for good reason: La Russa does not mentor. He considers the main part of his job to be filling out the best possible lineup every day, which is why America’s hotel bars are littered with napkins containing his scribble. He fathered daughters, not sons, and has not been a father figure to his players. This is by no means a flaw. La Russa has been successful, and so have his teams, which is what matters in the world of sport. After Dave Kingman embarrassed the A’s organization by sending me a gift-wrapped rat in 1986, La Russa wanted to bring Kingman back in 1987 because he felt Kingman’s bat would have lifted the A’s record. The A’s did not sign Kingman, and neither did anyone else. But La Russa would have; it wasn’t about character, it was about home runs. ...Disgraced or not, Canseco and Mark McGwire were the core Bash Brothers on a team that became generally known as such for its showy power and dominating offense. If Canseco was good…Read More ...

Last week I looked at the horizontal angle of a ball in play as a function of the location in the zone where it was hit. Although there is some trend for lower pitches to be pulled more, most of the trend is dictated by the horizontal location of the pitch. As expected inside pitches tend to be hit to the pull field and outside pitches more to the opposite field.

Below I reproduce the trend for just the horizontal location. I found the average angle of a ball in play as a function of the horizontal location of the pitch. The center of the strike zone is 0 and negative numbers indicate pitches that are inside to right hand batters and positive numbers outside. The strike zone extends from -1 (inside edge to a RHB ) to 1 (outside edge to a RHB). The angle of a ball in play follows the -45/0/45 convention (-45 is the third base line, 0 2nd base and 45 the first base line), so negative numbers indicate the pull field for a righty.

Starting away and moving towards the batter more and more balls are pulled, with the trend slowing and stopping at about the inside edge of the plate. Here you can see the overall pull tendency. At x=0, the middle of the plate, the average ball is hit to about 7.5° to the pull field and at x=1, the outside edge of the plate, the average ball is hit right up the middle.

I was interested in how this varied by pitch type. I expected that slower pitches would be pulled more, as hitter have more time to 'get around' on such pitches.

The results confirm our expectations. The slower a pitch type the more it is pulled, so that through much of the strike zone the average curveball or changeup is pulled 10° more than the average fastball in the same horizontal location. This shows part of the danger of coming inside with breaking and off-speed pitches. These pitches, if they are hit, will tend to be pulled heavily, which is where most hitters have the greatest power.

I also wanted to see how much speed affected pull, regardless of pitch type. Here I plot the average angle of a ball in play by pitch speed for three horizontal locations, away (but in the zone), down the middle and inside (but in the zone).

The effect of pitch speed is strong, nonlinear and interacts with location. So for inside pitches there is not much effect of speed, the pull rate of a very slow and very fast pitch are not that far off. Similarly there is not a lot of difference in the pull rate of very slow pitches across location, they are all pulled heavily. But outside pitches are strongly affected by pitch speed, with slow ones being pulled and fast ones going to the opposite field. And very fast pitches are strongly influenced by location, with inside ones being pulled and outside ones going to the opposite field.

The results here are not that surprising, but nicely confirm long-held baseball expectations.

Apparently, there was a 52-minute delay in today's Padres game while the team called a beekeeper to tranquilize a swarm that had infested left field and chased Padre Kyle Blanks in the top of the ninth.

Imagine you're Kyle Blanks for a moment, a 22-year-old rookie not even a month in the Major Leagues. You're a first baseman by trade, but you're in left field, learning a brand new position and trying to just slide under the radar.

The plan is working just fine. It's a sun-splashed day at PETCO Park in the ninth inning in what has become an otherwise forgettable game with most of the crowd of 23,284 long gone as the Padres are trailing the Houston Astros by six runs.

Suddenly, standing there in left field, Blanks notices a bee milling around his head. And then another. He's not allergic to bees, or at least he doesn't think so, but Blanks and bees don't mix, he would say after the game.

"I saw one or two floating around my head, and then I turned around and there was just a wall [of bees]," Blanks said. "There was just a ton of them. I started walking in and tried to get out of there. It's not something I want to tempt."

Who could blame him?

It was probably a smart, as what the Padres estimated were 2,000 bees had flown in from center field, passed high over the left-field seats and then settled down near Blanks in left field.

The bees (not the Salt Lake variety) left peaceably, and so did the Padres. Of course, as they pointed out in the Angels broadcast tonight, Manny Ramirez is scheduled tomorrow in left at Petco. Huh.

Yahoo box

To read the mattwietersfacts.com website, you might believe that, Chuck Norris-like

• sliced bread is the best thing since Matt Wieters
• Matt Wieters Will See Another 300 Game Winner In His Lifetime. Matt Wieters Is Immortal.
• Matt Wieters Eyesight Is So Good That He CAN See Russia From His House.

etc., etc., etc. Well, no doubt but that he'll be a good, possibly very good player in the Joe Mauer mold very soon, but really, the story was Bobby Abreu and his uncharacteristic two home runs in the very same game; it's something he's done 13 times previously, the last time with the Yanks on September 18, 2008, with the Yankees 9.5 games back of the new-look Rays (the horror, the horror) and days from elimination. Too little, too late, of course, but this year, much earlier and better, especially coming on the heels of a drubbing by his team's division rivals. Bobby, I salute you.

John Lackey was much better than we've seen him lately, and despite giving up a pair of runs he did it over eight innings, and hooray. Just a great cruise to the finish line for the boys tonight, something they haven't had much of lately.

Before I go: Torii Hunter had several great plays in center, including the last out of the ninth on a difficult running catch off Luke Scott's line drive to left-center with a man on first; miss it, and you've got men on second and third easy, and maybe another run across. I was commenting to Helen after the game how, despite my general aversion to owning player-specific memorabilia after having been burned by David Eckstein, I might think about a Hunter t-shirt. He's that good.

Happy 4th of July weekend, everybody.

And only 24 hours (I hope the bribe of some Angels tickets to the AT&T sales guy worked) until I get my new iPhone 3GS.

Yahoo box • Angels recap

Hit and Run, July 2, 2009

**I'm going to start using the Hit-And-Runs to update player grades when appropriate.

**Indians prospect Nick Weglarz got off to a terrible start at Double-A Akron this spring, hitting .089/.243/.143 in April. However, he turned that around with a .329/.431/.624 May and a .281/.434/.573 June, giving him a current line of .248/.381/.479. Another notable part of Weglarz's profile is a reverse platoon split: .276/.415/.539 against lefties (he's a lefty hitter) but just .234/.364/.449 against right-handers. He's also got a sharp home/road split, .269/.407/.529 at home but just .226/.353/.428 in the rest of the Eastern League. Weglarz has always had strong plate discipline (71/78 BB/K last year, 47/54 so far this year) but he's never quite broken out with the big season that scouts have projected. He's hitting .298/.432/.606 since May 1^st. . .is the breakout now in progress? It looks possible, but I'm always leery of arguments that begin with "if you take Month X out of the numbers"....the slump counts too. Book Grade was B-, will stick with that.

**He missed much of June with injury, and Jason Heyward hasn't hit quite as well since returning to action at Myrtle Beach, hitting .283 with a .391 SLG since coming off the DL. His season line is still very strong at .292/.367/.519 with 10 homers, but his power production has dropped noticeably since he came back. The 11-game sample size is miniscule, but we need to monitor his power output over the coming weeks to see if it's a random blip or a trend. His plate discipline has remained very strong, so I'm not worried about his approach or his long-term outlook as a prospect. Book grade was A-, will stick with that.

**On the other hand, I am starting to get concerned about Pedro Alvarez. Since moving up to Double-A Altoona, he's 3-for-25 (.120) with one walk and ten strikeouts. All three of his hits have been for extra bases (a double and two homers), but his plate discipline has been terrible. Is he just pressing, or is it finally time to conclude that there is something seriously wrong with him? He hit .247/.342/.486 at Lynchburg, with an impressive 14 homers and 37 walks in 243 at-bats, but he also struck out 70 times in 66 games. Power and patience were his two positives in the Carolina League. If he loses the patience against advanced pitching. . .well, that's obviously not what the Pirates are looking for. It is still way too early to panic here. . .the samples involved are too small. But he obviously needs to make adjustments, and the fact is indisputable that Alvarez has not lived up to his full potential since hurting his wrist at Vanderbilt last spring. And that's just the bat; Carolina League observers I've spoken with are pretty convinced that he'll have to move to first base, increasing the pressure on his bat. Book grade was A-, and I'm reducing that to B+. Further reductions are possible if he doesn't get the bat going by the end of the year.

**Tim Beckham is hitting .283/.342/.417 for Bowling Green, not exceptional performance but not bad. He needs to improve his plate discipline, as his 21/63 BB/K in 284 at-bats isn't particularly good. However, overall he's made progress since his mediocre hitting performance last year in the Appalachian League. Defense is another issue; his range and arm strength are reportedly very impressive, but he's made 27 errors in 60 games and has to improve on his .907 fielding percentage going forward. Given his age, the range and arm strength are more important than the reliability, which should improve in time. All told, Beckham is holding his own, but I expect the Rays will be conservative about promoting him, which makes perfect sense to me. Sticking with the book Grade B+ for now.

**I am planning a trip to Burlington, Iowa, next week, to take a good look at Eric Hosmer, the young Royals pitching, and Brett Lawrie of Wisconsin. Another Midwest League trip should follow the week after that, then I'll swing south again to the Texas League and/or PCL. I intend to be on the road a lot in August. As always, travel commitments are dependent on outside factors, so I have to keep plans loose, but the Burlington thing looks firm.

MILB:
R - YW Chang SP - ND, 5.1 IP, 3 R - 2 ER, 3 H, 5 K's, 3 BB's

R - SW Tseng 1 IP, 2 R, 2 H, 2 K's, 3 BB's

A ss - CC Chen 0-2, BB, RBI

A ss - CH Chen 2-4, 2 2B's - 0%CS (0-2)

A+ - CH Lin 1-5, OF Assist / CH Chiang 2-4, RBI, SB (2)

AAA - CL Hu 1-4, BB




NPB:
Dragons 4 - Tigers 1: WC Lin 0-1



Brett Cup:
Taipei-County (Banqiao) 4 - Taiwan Coop Bank 3

TaiPower 5 - Taiwan Beer 3



MLB:
A's 5 - Tigers 1: FT Ni 0.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 K, 0 BB's
*Updated

As if going to Pittsburgh for a one game rainout makeup isn't exciting enough, the Mets were also able to catch the phenomenon known as Anthrocon 2009, a convention where people can dress like animals. Boy, it was the club's lucky day ... let alone Kevin Burkhardt's lucky day.

This has to be the reason that Tim Redding has such an awful start today ... apparently, Redding's goatee was a keynote speaker at the event. Who knew?

But in this period of time where we're all kinda waiting for the bottom to drop out, we might be seeing the beginnings of evidence that maybe nobody should be throwing in the towel on this team just yet. Down 5-0 to the Pirates' best starter on a one-game stopover (akin to spending seven hours at Atlanta International) would have been an easy game to throw in the towel on. But not only did the Mets actually string some hits together to get some runners on base, they strung some more hits together to actually drive those runs in! Eight of them!!!

And believe it or not, at 8-5 ... even at 8-6, I didn't have that nagging feeling of doom that I usually have with this franchise. Honestly. I honestly thought there was no way that doom can befall them again. Law of averages, right?

Wrong!

Because it was then that Frankie came in with a two run lead in the ninth, and two batters later the freakin' game was tied. And not only tied, but tied by Adam "Carlos Beltran is a no-good classless goon who doesn't make enough plays to win baseball games" La Roche. If you thought I tore the house apart, not to worry. I just laughed.

However my cat, on the opening of the Furry Beast Convention, was quite pissed. So pissed in fact, that she briefly joined the Pittsburgh faithful in their heckling of Frankie.


Can you blame her? She's been through so much ... to have a blown save on a day dedicated to animal fur was just too much for her cat-like patience to take. She snapped, as I'm sure most of you did. But alas, more grit to come as Fernando Tatis was hit with a pitch to top off a big day for him, and Ryan Church drove him in to help seal the deal. And even Frankie came back to have a big tenth inning after coming within about a foot of losing the game completely in the ninth on a two-out line drive. Yes, the "resiliency" and the "grit" has been there more this season than in the last two ... but no more so than Thursday.

Unfortunately, this game probably means the Mets will be without Rodriguez's services on Friday against the Phillies. But speaking of the Phillies, I'm going to keep gettin' positive on you: Not that the Mets' three starters are any guarantees (Livan Hernandez, Fernando Nieve, and even Johan Santana isn't a guarantee these days), the Mets are facing Rodrigo Lopez (yes, Rodrigo Lopez), Jaime Moyer (who the Mets have hit this year), and Joe Blanton (who's improved lately in the way that you can improve from dog meat to merely beatable). The series is winnable, boys and girls. I know the Mets have made some struggling pitchers look like Bob Gibson, but Lopez hasn't pitched in the majors in two years. The Mets absolutely can't welcome him back to the majors by making him into a stud. And the other two pitchers aren't lights out by any means. So two out of three is not impossible (or, if you're not into double negatives, possible), especially if Tatis has indeed found his stroke and lost his looping swing.

From the press release... presumably no spontaneous combustion resulted:

New York, NY (July 1, 2009) – Longtime Brooklyn and LA Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley, sluggers Steve Garvey and Paul O’Neill, longtime umpire Jim Joyce, veteran sportscaster Vin Scully and Ed Lucas, a blind reporter who has covered the Yankees and Mets for more than 40 years, will be inducted into the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday, July 7, 2009 at Noon.

The Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame is housed at Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant ( 18 W. 33rd St. ) in Manhattan and, with a blessing from Cooperstown , recognizes current and former players, managers, executives, journalists and entertainers of Irish descent.

The game of baseball has welcomed immigrants from its earliest days -- when an estimated 30 percent of players claimed Irish heritage -- up to today as major league teams regularly sign players born in Latin America, Japan , Canada , and elsewhere. Honorees are chosen based on a combination of factors: impact on the game, popularity, contributions to the community, and, of course, ancestry.

“Our goal is to celebrate the contributions of Irish Americans to the game of baseball, both on and off the field,” said Shaun Clancy, founder of the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame and owner of Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant, where it is housed. “We’re honored that Steve Garvey and Peter O’Malley, who will represent his father and the O’Malley family, are flying in to attend the ceremony.”

“The Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame is the first New York City organization in the past half-century to honor Walter O’Malley. His Dodger teams won four World Series and 11 N.L. Pennants during his years of ownership,” Clancy continued. “Significantly, he was co-owner and legal counsel for the Dodgers when Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947. This part of his resume had as much impact on the game as any of his other accomplishments, which also include his team’s legendary World Series victory in 1955.”

“This is a great honor,” said former Dodger great Steve Garvey, one of the most popular players of the 1970s and early 80s. “I’m as proud of my Irish roots as I am my accomplishments on the baseball field.”

“My father was most proud of his Irish heritage and would have loved this honor, particularly since it is in New York , where he was born,” said Peter O’Malley, son of the longtime Dodgers owner and a former president and owner of the team.

Many of baseball’s biggest stars at the turn of the 20th century were Irish immigrants or their descendants, including Michael “King” Kelly, Roger Connor (the home run king before Babe Ruth), all-time ERA leader Big Ed Walsh and NY Giants manager John McGraw. In fact, the large 1945 class of inductees enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame included nine Irish Americans: Roger Bresnahan, Dan Brouthers, Fred Clarke, Jimmy Collins, Ed Delahanty, Hugh Duffy, Hughie Jennings, King Kelly, and Jim O'Rourke.

Shaun Clancy, an amateur baseball historian, created the Hall after learning about the rich heritage of Irish Americans in the sport dating from its infancy – a legacy that has been overshadowed in recent years by other ethnicities. He decided to celebrate his roots and those who helped make the game great by creating a shrine to Irish Americans in baseball in 2008. Inductees include players, managers, team executives, umpires, journalists, broadcasters, entertainers. In addition to giving each inductee a copy of his plaque, Foley’s will make a donation to Umps Care and Ed Randall’s Bat For The Cure in their names.

“As an immigrant myself, I am so proud of the positive response to the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame from both the inductees and visitors. Learning the game helped me fall in love with America ’s national past time and my adopted homeland,” said Shaun Clancy, owner of Foley’s, which features one of the country’s most extensive public displays of baseball memorabilia outside of Cooperstown . “We’re thrilled to host and celebrate the honorees here today and celebrate their impact on the game and the community.”

The 7x9 inch brass plaques feature the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame logo, an image of each inductee with a brief list of career and personal accomplishments, as well as Irish roots and/or connections and the date of induction. The plaques were designed by engravers Ashburns, Inc.

The “Starting Nine” inductees last year were: the late Mets and Phillies reliever Tug McGraw, Yankee announcer John Flaherty, sportswriter Jeff Horrigan, NY Mets groundskeeper Pete Flynn, retired sluggers Mark McGwire and Sean “The Mayor” Casey, Kevin Costner, star of Field of Dreams and Bull Durham, legendary owner/manager Connie Mack, and longtime official scorer and columnist Red Foley.

About Foley’s NY Pub & Restaurant

A popular destination among baseball players, executives, umpires and fans, Foley's NY Pub & Restaurant (www.foleysny.com) is located on 18 W. 33rd St. , across the street from the Empire State Building . The "Irish bar with a baseball attitude" features walls adorned with 2,000 autographed baseballs, hundreds of bobbleheads, game-worn jerseys, stadium seats and other artifacts that make Foley’s the best baseball bar in New York and one of the best sports bars in America.

• Manny brings an early Christmas.

  'Twas the night before Manny, and all through the ball park,
  Not a creature was stirring, not even a McCourt;

  The helmets were hung by the dugout with care,
  In hopes that St. Dreadlock soon would be there;

• "The Lonesome Death of Russell Martin's Power":

  ... a funny thing happened on the way to the Dodger Hall of Fame. Martin simply doesn't hit for power anymore. It was a little troubling last season, when Martin followed up his breakout .469-slugging, 19-homer 2007 with a .396 slugging percentage, but I'll never be disappointed in a catcher with a .385 on-base percentage. Besides, Martin was sure to improve this year because of his improved attitude and maturity. He even started doing yoga.

  It hasn't helped. In the 126-year history of the Dodgers, there have been 34 different seasons in which a catcher has posted a slugging percentage under .300 (with at least 200 plate appearances). The king of these seasons is Bill Bergen, the worst hitter in the history of baseball. Bergen played eight seasons with Brooklyn, from 1904-1911. He has the seven lowest slugging percentages ever by a Dodger catcher, and the only reason he doesn't have eight seasons is because he only had 143 PA. Only six of these sub-.300 seasons have come since 1941. Russell Martin's slugging percentage in 2009 is .298 at essentially the halfway point this season.

Jason Bay had a rough road trip in Baltimore, Atlanta and Washington. Stupid road trip with a bunch of young pitchers you've hardly seen in your career.The low light was the 5 Ks in yesterday's come from behind win at Camden Yards, and went 0 for 15 in that Baltimore series, and 6 for 36 overall. It's pretty yucky, but given his talent, I doubt this slump lingers. He says his timing is off (as

George Kottaras congratulates Jonathan Papelbon on save #133. (AP Photo)

This recent trip to Fenway South seemed so promising at its onset, however it was beginning to look more like a disappointment as yesterday afternoon crept into the early evening. The Red Sox entered the 9th inning with zero walks on the day. Dustin Pedroia however quickly turned that around earning the first walk of the day for the Red Sox, as Kevin Youkilis shortly after deposited a two-run HR into the stands, and like that, the Sox were suddenly back in the game. The meat of the order couldn't further convert as Jason Bay (who earned the platinum Golden Sombrero yesterday) and David Ortiz both struck out.

On a side note here, while talking to my Dad about baseball he stated how he's never seen this many Red Sox take so many called third strikes. Of course I disagreed initially here because, well, I am his child and must therefore question everything, but the more I've been watching and thinking about it, I have to agree with him. I don't know if this is a direct result of the modern day ballplayer being more patient at the plate and seeing more pitches per plate appearance, but the hitters seem to be very comfortable now with two strikes. I'm not noticeably seeing them choke up on the bat, close their stance, and swing if it's close, and as my Dad said, Ted Williams would be having a fit if he saw this. I'll be looking into the validity of this more, however keeping an eye open on it, because it's happenig a lot.

So after the back-to-back K's the Sox chances were looking pretty bleak, however with a couple more walks and some magic from the pride of Rhode Island the Sox were able to tie up the game. It only seemed fitting at this point in the series that it'd be Julio Lugo who'd drive in the winning run for the Sox as the weird kept turning. Say what you will about Lugo, but through his entire benching the guy's been a Grade A Professional as he's stayed prepared to play, and has not outwardly complained to the media really about his playing. It can't be easy to be benched in the way he is, and seeing him still come through for us like this is nice to see. Still, what an odd series, and I think some Fenway Loving is more then needed right now. Now about that rain in Boston...

This is the third part of what has been a three part series on the MLB Draft. Part one created a model for the expected value of each draft pick, while part two calculated probabilities of becoming a certain caliber player, as well as expanded on the conclusions in part one.

Today's article focuses on individual teams and how much control they have over the draft process. Is drafting more or less a complete crapshoot, or does the success of a draft vary greatly depending on the front office and the team who is doing the drafting (and oftentimes developing the players as well). Is there much to distinguish a great drafting franchise from a poor one, or is the difference mostly due to luck?

To review, the data I had at hand was gleaned from Sean Smith's WAR database and Baseball Reference, and contained overall picks #1-50, as well as a handful of picks after that (every 5th pick through #100, every 10th pick through #500, and every 25th pick through #1000). While not every pick for every team is covered, this data gives each team a sample of well over 100 draft picks, including all of a team's very high selections. Data used in this study, will focus only on each player's "first six year" WAR, since the team only gains from drafting a valuable player during the years in which it does not have to pay market value. The data is also limited to those players drafted in 2001 or earlier, since more recently drafted players have not had a chance to come up and show their full value.

Draft WAR By Team

So, how did the teams fare? For what it's worth, the table below shows team's drafts based on the sample of picks which I have (which includes all top picks and a smattering of picks after that).

As you can see, the Red Sox are the clear #1, while the Padres, Cubs, and Rangers rank near the bottom. As a Cubs fan, the news comes as no surprise, since for nearly all of my first several years of following the team (I started following in 1987), the Cubs never seemed to have a home grown player contribute to meaningfully to the team. Likewise, it seems as though the Red Sox have had an endless array of talent coming up through their farm system.

Of course, this still doesn't account for the fact that teams have undoubtedly changed a great deal since 1965, and the philosophy and scouting behind a team's drafting and development strategy when the draft first began likely bears no resemblance to the operation of today. Additionally, the WAR Above Average per Pick value is tough to extrapolate to the entire draft since the data I have is heavy on top picks and those top picks have higher WAR and a higher variability in WAR.

While the numbers are interesting, and give a snapshot of how teams have done with their past drafts (again, this is only a sample of picks, not all picks - perhaps another study has shown WAR by team for all picks - if so, that would be superior to the above table), we can't fully get at the question of how large a difference there is between a smart drafting organization and a poor drafting organization without fuller data and a more refined unit of analysis.

Draft WAR by General Manager

Perhaps more relevant than a team's drafting record is the record of individual general managers. For study this I compared 10 current general managers with substantial draft records dating to back before the 2001 draft. I went back and obtained all picks (not just the sample I previously had) for each of these GM's during their tenure so that I had a substantial amount of data to work with.

Comparing each GM's actual WAR to the expected WAR from the model and then comparing the GM's to each other, gives us an idea of how successful each GM has been relative to the others. The table below shows each GM and his drafting record.

As you can see, of the 10 GM's studied, Billy Beane is unsurprisingly at the top of the heap, followed closely by Walt Jocketty, former GM of the Cardinals and current GM of the Cincinnati Reds. Bringing up the rear are Brian Cashman of the Yankees and Brian Sabean of the Giants.

So, Beane has had good drafts and the Sabean has had bad drafts. Is this a real difference, or is this a simple artifact of luck? To investigate this, we first calculate the weighted variance of the GM's WAR Above Average per pick. This observed weighted variance is .036. Then we calculate the expected weighted variance if all teams were equally good at drafting (with an expected WAR Above Average value of 0 and a SD of 2.0, which is the SD of WAR Above Average over all picks). This expected variance is .013. Taking the square root of the difference of the two variances gives an estimate of the standard deviation of the true drafting talent across GM's. (Observed Variance - Expected Variance due to Noise = True Variance). Calculating this with our numbers tells us that the true distribution of GM talent (including scouting, development, etc.) has a standard deviation of .150 WAR per pick.

With each team making about 45 picks per year, this means that the SD of the GM talent over an entire draft is a staggering 6.75 WAR. Basically a good GM will net his team an extra 6 or 7 wins above that of an average GM in a single draft. An outstanding GM (top 3% of all GM's) can net his team 13 wins above that of an average GM. Of course the signs can be reversed when talking about poor GM's. This distribution shows just how valuable a good GM can be. As we can see here, the difference in draft quality is more due to skill than chance (though of course, chance plays a major role), and a good GM and scouting system can make all the difference.

According to Moneyball, Billy Beane at one point was to be essentially traded for Kevin Youkilis. While Youkilis has become an outstanding player, the trade would not have been a good one. Beane, in just 4 years of the draft between 1998-2001, brought the A's essentially the equivalent of a Hall of Fame player, giving the A's 46 extra WAR over what the average GM would have been able to acquire. This advantage was gained on his drafting skills alone, not even accounting for his ability to make expert trades or sign free agents. Of course, time will tell how Beane's drafts will turn out during the years that followed the proposed trade, but the point is made - GM's have an enormous impact on a team's successes, even when considering their ability to draft alone.

Even when we scale back the WAR Above Average per Pick by about 25% to account for the regression effect (.15 estimated true standard deviation divided by the .20 observed standard deviation = .75), we still find that Beane is good for about 9 extra WAR per draft, while Sabean and Cashman are losing their teams about 9 WAR per draft.

Unfortunately, because draft picks take so long to develop, it makes it difficult to tell in "real time" how a GM is doing. However, this short study of 10 current long-time GM's shows us just how valuable a good GM can be.

For obvious reasons, 2004 was a good year to start this blog, but it's had one problematic side effect: every year, I look for the game of the year, the game that channels the spirit of The Fight Game and demonstrates that deep down, the Sox have what it takes to gel as a team when they need to most. I know full well it's a fatuous exercise: even in 2004, the trade that put together the final

Signs that Aramis Ramirez' dislocated shoulder might be longer-lasting than expected: the Cubs traded for Jeff Baker, according to Yahoo Sports. Baker was used as a utility infielder last year, amassing a career-high .268/.322/.468 line in 333 plate appearances, appearing mostly at second and first with some time at third and in the outfield. It's unknown what the return will be.

Update: The Cubs have DFA'd Ryan Freel, according to an unsourced report from Al Yellon.

A fan post at Purple Row cites the return as Andy Alburquerque according to a report by Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago.

Michael Jackson's attorney John Branca is the nephew of Dodger pitcher Ralph Branca. (It wasn't entirely his fault.) An interesting story besides, about the making of the "Thriller" video:

Such projects back then cost about $50,000. Jackson was letting his inspiration run free to the tune of $1 million. That raised the question of how he was going to pay for it. Branca had an inspiration of his own.

"He suggested we make a separate video filmed by somebody else about the making of the 'Thriller' video," Jackson recalled in his autobiography. "It seemed odd that no one had ever thought of this before."

Branca pitched the idea to MTV and Showtime. He came back with $1.2 million in financing.

The deal still might have fallen apart because Jackson's mother was a Jehovah's Witness and some of her fellow congregants suggested he was supporting evil by appearing as a werewolf.

Jackson was reportedly poised to scratch both the video and the video about the video when Branca pitched another idea, this one to the star. Branca noted that Bela Lugosi had resolved religious misgivings about portraying Dracula by insisting on a note at the start of the film saying he was in no way pro-vampire.

1. Tom Hicks has folded the marketing group selling the Rangers, splitting employees into their respective teams. (It was also plugging the Dallas Stars hockey team.)
2. The Rangers borrowed $15M from MLB to make payroll.

   The chatter arose Wednesday after a local blog reported hearing on a national radio broadcast the team had borrowed $15 million from MLB to make its most recent payroll obligations and to fund ongoing operations. Asked about the reports, Hicks referred questions to team spokesman John Blake, who said the team would have no comment on the financial situation. Club president Nolan Ryan declined to comment after the Rangers’ 9-7 win over Los Angeles, which pulled them within a half game of the Angels in the AL West.

   Club sources, however, said the team has paid its employees for the most recent pay period and that Hicks remains in control of the organization.  According to a source familiar with the situation, the Rangers are continuing normal operating procedures and have financial resources to sign both draft picks and international free agents. The source, however, did not mention the possibility of increasing payroll at the trading deadline.

   According to a source, a scenario has been in place for several weeks that would have allowed the Rangers to borrow from the MLB fund. It would not mean MLB would take control of the club, but under those circumstances, it’s likely MLB would have much more say on spending matters. The Rangers top two draft picks, LHP Matt Purke and RHP Tanner Scheppers, are both demanding bonuses well in excess of the current MLB-recommended “slotting” system.

Well, that will be interesting.

I genuinely hate getaway day games, not least because I forget about them as they're going on. In this case, it turned out to be a good thing, because by the time I tuned in it was the eighth inning and Rafael Furcal came to the plate to pinch-hit for reliever Ramon Troncoso, and pinch-runner Russell Martin at second, only the second Dodger baserunner in scoring position all day. Of course, Furcal came through with an RBI single, and the Dodgers got away with a win on another excellent performance by Jonathan Broxton.

The box tells me that Clayton Kershaw wobbled through five, giving up as many walks as strikeouts (five apiece); the Dodgers' steady bullpen did the rest. On the other side of the game, Jason Hammel pitched a complete game and lost, a fact that may have been yet another Jim Tracy boneheaded maneuver. That is, knowing you have to face Broxton in the ninth with a Dodger lead, why leave your starter in there?

In any case, Hammel appears to be one of the nicer little trades the Rockies have executed in some time, getting a 26-year-old starter with an ERA+ of 116 with 7 quality starts in 13 tries, that mostly because he hasn't met the innings requirement. Outside of three bad starts on May 8, May 30, and June 20, he's been a very solid performer for the Rockies. In fact, here's something I hadn't even suspected about the Rockies this year: four of their five pitchers in the starting rotation have an ERA+ well over 100. They're righting the ship over there.

And, oh yeah, win #50. Good show, guys.

Yahoo box • Dodgers recap

Partly as a consequence of not one but two power outages at the office, I wasn't able to pay close attention to this game, and I'm glad I didn't; Weaver was uncharacteristically bad, although you could argue that a flyball pitcher in Texas is like an armadillo on an Arlington highway: roadkill waiting to happen. The Angels' inspiring-but-not-quite-enough comeback in the ninth was more than made up for by Justin Speier's surrendering of a two-run jack to Hank Blalock.

About the only thing worse to see was Torii Hunter wincing during his at-bat in the top of the ninth; he appeared to be clutching at his belt, which could be a really serious sports hernia of some kind. Let's hope it isn't.

Vlad must never attempt to steal a base this season, again. I didn't see Chone Figgins leadoff auto-erasure to lead off the ninth, trying to stretch a double into a triple, but from the radio call, it sounded like a really stupid maneuver.

Yahoo box • Angels recap

It had to happen sometime.

Surely the Mets couldn't lose every game they played the rest of the season. Not even with that pathetic lineup they roll out every night.


The New Mets Beefcake

And with Big Pelf pitching like he never had before, all the of the sudden the Brewers were beatable.

The big play came in the 7th when Prince Fielder, in his Manny Ramirez baggy, oversized clown uniform ran himself out of the inning - it was almost certain after he was balked over by Pelf that Pelf would immediately see his composure meltdown but a brainy play by David Wright to allow a sure sacrifice bunt roll foul, followed by the pick off of Fielder was a rare moment of Mets competence. Savour it, you might not see such action again for a long while.

Wright, by the way, three exceptionally pathetic flailing strikeouts (two with a man in scoring position) and a weak grounder to go along with another one of his patented "Oh I'll just throw it somewhere in the vicinity of first base but not actually TO first base" throwing errors he's so fond of didn't quite merit Man of the Match honours but let's face it, allowing that bunt to roll foul was the one of the smartest plays he's made all season.

Pelf of course, after pitching by far his best game of the season, left the game after 107 pitches and runners on first and second with two out for the dubious Sidewinder Sean.

Much like the 4th inning, when the Brewers had two men on and none out, you could sense the game, in typical Mets fashion would get away from them. You might have wondered why Jerry didn't have Frankie Boy up and ready to go to get the last four outs. But in the end, there was no need to second guess. Sidewinder Sean prevailed. Now you KNOW this wasn't a normal day.

And after all that, Frankie Boy earned his 21st save of the season and the Mets had a nice and neat little 1-0 victory to take with them for their inevitable beating in Pittsburgh tomorrow.

So after five straight days of hair-pulling hell, the Mets finally get a result. Let's hope we don't have to wait until after leaving Philly to see another.

And maybe Jerry should starting holding meetings every night.

Somebody needs to FIX IT! Image by Brent and MariLynn via Flickr

Arroyo hasn't been good this year. He's 8-7, but has a 5.69 ERA, a 6.03 FIP, a 5.15 xFIP, a 6.79 tRA, and a 5.59 tRA*. None of those is encouraging.

Last night, he said this:

“That’s the way it goes, man,” Arroyo said. “There’s nothing to say as far as why I’m giving up so many homers. I’ve always given up a decent amount. Physically, I feel good. I feel strong. I’m able to throw 90 if I need it.

“I’m in one of those ruts where I can’t get over the hump, get on the plus side, winning 3-0, 4-1. I’ve been chasing it the last couple times. All you can do is take the ball every fifth day and try to dig yourself out of it.”

The following all comes from his fangraphs page.

His home run rate is up a fair bit this season:

Predictably, his HR/FB rate is as well, and that's usually thought to fluctuate randomly. Even better, his ground ball rate is actually up this year. This is why his xFIP is so much better than his FIP. So that's good news.

What's bothering me about Arroyo is his strikeout rate. In particular, look at this graph:
What I'm seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I've long believed that Bronson's bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.

I'm no scout, so I can't give you a precise cause. But let's play a bit: his fastball run value has taken a huge hit this year, and appears to be where the problem lies among his major pitches from the pitch value data. But his fastball velocity, as he said, is essentially unchanged vs last year. And his fastball pitchf/x movement looks similar (maybe a slight drop in vertical movement, but not as large as 2007 vs 2008). Run values on his curve ball and change are actually improved this year, and are mostly unchanged on his slider, so those pitches look fine.

His walk rate is up this year. So, here's a hypothesis: Arroyo's not spotting his fastball this season, and so he can't use it to properly set up his breaking slop as he usually does. And he's behind in the count more than usual, causing him to give better pitches to hit. I can't do my own pitchf/x at this point, but would someone like to test this who can assess strike zones? Maybe compare balls vs strikes on all 3-1 and 3-2 counts in 2009 vs. 2008 in which he threw a fastball? I've gone as far as I can go.

The Reds need Eddie to come back strong. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've updated the power rankings at BtB.

Not a good week for the Reds. Well, sort of. Their expected winning percentage improved from 0.409 to 0.414. So there's that. But other teams near their spot improved even more, causing the Reds to fall to ...28th in the rankings. Out of 30 teams.

This gives me no pleasure. But this Reds team just hasn't been very good. The fielding's great, and that's nice to see. But the hitting has been horrid, and the pitching is "only" average. I know they're only 4 games out....but unfortunately, unless some pitchers get back on track, and Encarnacion + Votto can carry the offense, I don't know if there's enough here to catch a team like the Brewers.

The Dodgers activated pitcher Eric Stults as one of a string of roster moves preparing for Manny Ramirez' return:

• Stults will rejoin the Dodgers to either start or rejoin the bullpen, but the starting job is his to lose.
• Third-string catcher A.J. Ellis was optioned back to AAA Albuquerque.
• OF Mitch Jones was designated for assignment.
• Claudio Vargas is expected to return to the 25-man on Friday as well, since his DL stint is up. Since he will need a 40-man roster spot as well, the Dodgers will move Hong-Chih Kuo to the 60-day DL. It is possible, however, that Vargas may be allowed to become a minor league free agent.

The Red Sox blew their biggest lead in over two decades last night. (AP Photo)

Watching this game slip like sand through the Sox fingers was as painful as watching a sunburn grow in redness on an unprotected forearm through a salty sunglasses view. Immediately after the "two-out walk-off the field incident" the game took a drastic turn for the bad, and our untouchable bullpen suddenly was fondled at will by the O's, as they ringed out hit-after-hit. I'm not going to dwell too much on this game, however the loss of the game along with Mike Lowell to the DL is helping make the Red Sox appear much less intimidating, and helps bring us back to down to the harsh competitive realities that the AL East presents. It looked like the Sox may have been able to put a decent gap in the division entering the All-Star break, however the continued competition should be expected, and you just hope their fight stays there. Coming into June we were down half a game to the Yanks, and exiteing June we're currentlly 2.5 games up, so all-in-all it's been a great month.

Beckett's the perfect pitcher to have on the mound today though, and while I'm at work, I'll be listening via MLB Audio, and you can follow my thoughts on the game via Twitter here: http://www.twitter.com/sawxblog

Let's Go Sox!