Stan “who may be the only reporter who covered that game for a New York paper who’s still alive” Isaacs remembers… And then there was the laughable promotion by MasterCard in 2002 to select the greatest moments in baseball history. MasterCard was more interested in numbers than in fashioning an authentic list. So it was that most of the events people voted on were not moments; they occurred mostly in the post-television age; and were events likely to draw votes in certain quarters, i.e. listing Ichiro Suzuki’s outstanding 2001 rookie season as a way of attracting votes from Japan. Yes, Japanese citizens were eligible to vote. The Thomson-Branca moment did not make the final top ten. Cal Ripken’s feat of playing in the most consecutive games (that’s a lot of “moments”) was voted No. 1. Baseball was made to look ridiculous anew for selling out to a commercial entity. As the contest drew to an end, the MasterCard people sent Thomson and Branca on a round of radio talks to promote the contest. That night they were at Shea Stadium to appear on a Mets’ pre-game show. I was in the Mets clubhouse and watched Branca, a regular visitor to the Mets because manager Bobby Valentine was his son-in-law, leading Thomson around, introducing him to players. I was in Valentine’s office where the talk got around to the MasterCard promotion. Branca vented his anger. “It’s ridiculous that our moment is not high in the running.” he said. “Was Suzuki a moment? Was Ripken a moment?” I could hardly suppress a smile. Here was Branca—the victim of a day that has lived in infamy for him, for the Dodgers and their fans—angry that his “moment” was not being awarded with the votes of the fans. Ah, baseball.

Or as Lack-O-Staats said the other day…“It’ ;s amazing how someone can hit for power one year during his walk-year and then turn around and hit for average the next walk-year!” Right now, the game of figuring out whether the Sox might re-sign Beltre is an act of pure speculation, aside from suggesting that, barring some highly unforeseen circumstance, he will decline his $5 million player option, even if it increases to $10 million should he reach the now-attainable mark of 640 plate appearances. Beltre, a Scott Boras client, is also all-but-certain to test the free-agent waters before discussing a return to Boston. As the elite third baseman on the market, he will be coveted. Will there be alternatives should Beltre head for greener pastures (and dollar figures) this coming offseason? Of course. While Beltre would clearly be the standout third baseman on the market, Kevin Youkilis could afford the Sox the opportunity to pursue either a first or third baseman. That would give the team fallback options in the form of players like Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena and (though unlikely to leave Chicago) Paul Konerko.

In a circus game of highs and lows, the Phillies battled back from oblivion thanks to a nine-run inning and withstood a 20-hit barrage in a wild 12-11 victory in Colorado. There isn’t enough time in the day to revisit everything that happened last night. You could write an entire term paper on Antonio Bastardo’s weird inning alone. In short, Blanton got bombed, the big boys broke out the Black Betsys and the bleary-eyed Phillies finally gained on the Braves....

Mr. Madden, your BrainSeepuStar multi-media virtual video glasses should arrive in time for the Moneyball opening. When you read stuff like this from the Daily News’ Bill Madden, you have to ask yourself two questions: (1) At what point will columnists stop using a now seven year-old book as a hook to write about the A’s? and (2) would Billy Beane have been better off if he had never provided Michael Lewis the access to write “Moneyball” in the first place?   Bud Selig and the major league poobahs ought to be ashamed to be charging major league prices of $100 and stiffly upward for what amounted to be the $200 million world champions vs. Sacramento. What’s especially wrong with this picture, however, is that these are the same Oakland A’s that, in Michael Lewis’ 2003 best-selling book “Moneyball” - now being made into a major motion picture starring Brad Pitt as A’s GM Billy Beane - were depicted as the model franchise for all of baseball because of their ability to make the most out of spending the least. Given the time that has passed—one of the main subjects of the book has retired already for cryin’ out loud—I can’t help but wonder if it’s really all that enlightening to critique the 2010 Oakland Athletics by referencing the book. And really, given that teams like the Yankees owe a lot of their recent success to co-opting and improving upon many of Beane’s ideas, it’s rather amusing to see “Moneyball” slammed over and over again like it is.

“They’re part of the new Ford “Feel” Ford Motor Co. on Thursday settled a Mississippi lawsuit over a 2001 accident in which a New York Mets prospect was killed when his SUV crashed in the Florida Panhandle, a lawyer for the player’s family said. The settlement came shortly after the jury in Jasper County had awarded $131 million in actual damages to Cole’s family and before it was to consider possible punitive damages, Tab Turner, an attorney for the family of Brian Cole, told The Associated Press. Turner, from Little Rock, Ark., said the settlement amount and terms were confidential. “The family is glad this is finally over. I thought the verdict was an appropriate response to the evidence. They put zero percent of the fault on Brian Cole and 100 percent of the fault on Ford Motor Co. for a defective and unreasonably dangerous vehicle,” Turner said. Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans said the accident was a tragedy and the company offered its sympathy to the Cole family for their loss. However, Evans said in a statement that the Mississippi court “denied Ford a fair trial by excluding evidence that the jury should have heard and considered about Brian’s driving and the speculative nature of plaintiffs’ claims.”

Yeah…but who the #### needhams anyway! He’s the master of after-the-fact analysis. If the result of the play was good, it was Niiiiiiiice. If the result of the play was bad, it was bad. Good things never happened on bad plays, nor vice versa. He was the fan in the booth. The loud, obnoxious guy sitting one row behind and two seats over whose comments are entertaining for the first two innings, but by the sixth inning and his sixth beer, you just wanna strangle. The team did well, he cheered or grunted. They did poorly, he ripped those bums. For some people watching at home, that had a real strong appeal. He’s one of us! For others? Ugh. Cretinous meatheadism? Pass. So today was a very, very, very, very good day, and plenty of Nats fans grunted in celebration. But I feel somewhat conflicted. Dibble stinks, but isn’t what the team did to him kind of, well, cheap?

Human Bomb: Bet-A-Million Butler or Betemit? (No comment until the time limit is up) Betemit was signed as a minor-league free agent last fall and since the trade of third baseman Alberto Callaspo, Betemit has suddenly become the Royals’ most dangerous hitter. Betemit is hitting .321 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in just 184 at bats. Projecting those numbers over a full season certainly should make any Royals fan pause to wonder what exactly the Royals have stumbled upon. “He’s been just terrific,” general manager Dayton Moore told me. “The guy gives you professional at bats.” But are Betemit’s numbers for real?  “You got to believe what you’re seeing,” Moore said. “That’s the way I’ve always operated. You have to believe what you’re seeing.”

Associated Press, September 3, 1977:S adaharu Oh smashed the 756th home run of his 19-year pro baseball career before 50,000 roaring fans here Saturday night…breaking the American record held by Hank Aaron. ... Some baseball experts in the United States and elsewhere challenge Oh’s mark, arguing that American major league ball is of higher caliber and that fields are smaller in Japan.There’s more to me than you’ll ever know and I’ve got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.

“Some of the worst trades I’ve ever made were with Walt,” [Kevin] Towers said. “He’s the one guy, every time we made a trade I’d end up saying: ‘You know what? This is not going to be good.’ I always tell him, ‘The only one I ever won on you was Fernando Valenzuela for Danny Jackson, and the only reason I won that deal was because Jackson retired and Fernando didn’t.’ ” At 59, Jocketty has been around long enough to have traded icons of the 1980s like Valenzuela. He is upbeat by nature, and players call him approachable and calm. But only one general manager is older — Jack Zduriencik of the Seattle Mariners, by a month — and Jocketty came to baseball through some of the game’s most colorful characters. ... Fan support is still tepid; the Reds averaged fewer than 17,000 fans in their most recent home series, and they rank 12th of 16 N.L. teams in attendance per game. The hope is that the Reds’ performance will increase the season-ticket base and help add to a payroll that ranked 19th in the majors on opening day. ... “This is the oldest franchise in baseball,” Jocketty said. “There is a history of winning here. People still remember the Big Red Machine, and that’s huge. But other than 1990, there hasn’t been a whole lot in between. It’s now important to get people believing that this can be similar to that era, and that it’s going to be a lot of fun to be a Reds fan.”

MIN 77-57 [1-1 in SEPT] CHW 73-60 [1-0 in SEPT] (3.5 GB) Yahoo!: Twins stumble late, fall to Tigers in 13 innings The Twins sure could have used the extra bodies as they wrapped up their series against the Tigers with a 10-9 loss in a 13-inning contest that lasted four hours, 47 minutes at Target Field. Gerald Laird blasted a solo home run off right-hander Nick Blackburn, who had been scheduled to start on Friday against the Rangers, with one out in the 13th to give Detroit the victory. MLB.com: [Scott] Baker exits game early with right elbow pain

Tell the truth, Poz and Michael Schur…tell the truth. Which brings us to the main character of our blog saga … Derek Jeter. I have been thinking a lot about Jeter the last couple of days because (name drop alert) I went to have drinks with Michael Schur — brilliant creator of “Parks and Rec,” and Ken Tremendous of Fire Joe Morgan — and the entire conversation was more or less about Derek Jeter. Michael admits that he spends most of his leisure minutes these days thinking about Derek Jeter. Well, what else is there to think about? His Red Sox are toast. Tiger Woods’ story has gotten repetitive (He’s back! Oh, wait, no he’s not back! Excuse me, yes, he IS back. Oh, no, wrong, he’s not back). The NFL preseason might be bizarrely popular (the NBC preseason games have been the No. 1 shows on television for the week) but they aren’t much to think about. That leaves Jeter and what promises to be the most fascinating ending in the history of professional sports. ...But now he’s back to the player he looked to be two years ago. As Schur points out, not without some glee, Jeter’s sub-par numbers this year — let the record show that on Sept. 2, 2010 Yuniesky Betancourt (95 OPS+) had a higher OPS+ than Derek Jeter (94 OPS+) — don’t even tell the whole story. Jeter’s stunning numbers (.266/.331/.374) are really pumped up by the energy and hitting atmosphere of Yankee Stadium. On the road he’s hitting .230/.294/.307. We can argue about how much Jeter has left … but when you have a 36 year old shortstop with a .314 lifetime average suddenly hitting .266 in September — it sure smells of serious and irreversible decline.

PHI 76-58 [2-0 in SEPT] SFG 74-60 [1-0 in SEPT] (2 GB) MLB.com: Utley’s slam lets Phils break free

ATL 78-56 [1-1 in SEPT] PHI 76-58 [2-0 in SEPT] (2 GB) MLB.com: Damage in first too much for Hudson Plague d by a lack of hustle and an Omar Infante throwing error, [Tim] Hudson surrendered four hits during the two-run first inning that gave Santana enough support to help the Mets claim a 4-2 win over the Braves on Thursday night at Turner Field. MLB.com: Utley’s slam lets Phils break free With both the Phillies and Rockies coming from the West Coast for a single makeup game, the Phillies victimized the Rockies with a nine-run rally in the seventh to take the lead en route to a 12-11 victory that was packed with all the drama of a three-game set.

Coming up: short-season sleepers, Starlin Castro Crystal Ball, Michael Stanton Crystal Ball, Lars Anderson vs. Anthony Rizzo, minor league notes, beginning preliminary work on the 2011 book and top prospect lists. Feel free to suggest other stuff. Also feel free to order .pdf copies of the 2010 book. Lots of you asked for it....order it!

Because I’m tired of “sabermetriflinging ” this out to a number of friends… AL Cy Young If there has ever been an award race that loomed as a referendum on where we stand on New Age versus Old Time award values, this is it. We’re about to find out exactly how sabermetrified our trusty Cy Young electorate has become. If this were 1963, or even 2003, there’s no doubt who would win this Cy Young. That would be Sabathia, a big-time ace who is 18-5, has gone 14-2 since the beginning of June, just ripped off a streak of 16 straight quality starts and has a shot to become the AL’s first 24-game winner in two decades. So for voters fixated on the old win column, Sabathia currently owns eight more wins than King Felix. And it wouldn’t shock anyone, given the state of their two teams, if that gap inflated to nine, or 10 or 11 wins by the end of the season. It’s one thing for the voters to hand a Cy Young to 15- and 16-game winners over a 19-game winner, the way they did last year for Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. It’s another thing to deliver a Cy Young to a 13-game winner over, say, a 22-game winner. But remember, this is a performance award, period. And King Felix leads the league in every meaningful sabermetric pitching stat on Earth except adjusted ERA+ (where Buchholz is No. 1—and Sabathia ranks ninth). Even if you compare more traditional numbers, though, Hernandez has an ERA that’s three-quarters of a run lower than Sabathia’s, an opponent OPS that’s 74 points lower, more innings pitched, a better strikeout rate and a better WHIP. So if you truly analyze the big picture, Buchholz (your ERA leader) and Wilson (whose team is 15-2 in his past 17 starts) should rank ahead of Sabathia in this race. But are voters really ready to ignore that win column completely? We’ll find out. Won’t we?

Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15) and the Phillies wrap up their West Coast fling against Jhoulys Chacin (7-9, 3.79) and the Rockies tonight at 7:05. Brian Schneider represents the only lineup change. In news from around the organization, the Phillies won the Gulf Coast League championship this afternoon with a 10-4 victory over the Rays. Ross Gload will play his second rehab game tonight in Clearwater. No word yet on the next wave of call-ups or the emergency starter who will...

MLB.com: CC allows just one hit as Yanks sweep A’s CC Sabathia continued his regular-season unbeaten streak at Yankee Stadium, turning in a dominant performance as the Yankees completed a four-game sweep of the Athletics, 5-0, on Thursday. Curtis Granderson, who replaced an injured Nick Swisher in the second inning, provided the bulk of the offense with a pair of home runs in New York’s sixth consecutive win NYY 84-50 [2-0 in SEPT] TBR 82-51 [1-0 in SEPT] (1.5 GB)

Alex Rodriguez is no longer represented by Scott Boras, the power agent who negotiated for him the two highest-paid contracts in baseball history, USA Today reports. The Yankee slugger now is working with Pittsburgh sports attorney Jay Reisinger and Washington lawyer Jim Sharp, who have been handling his legal and government affairs since February 2009. The USA Today report says Reisinger confirmed the relationship.

I’m surprised no one put this up.. Cardinals President Bill DeWitt III said, “Fan sentiment and feedback” were important factors in the decision to go back to KMOX. He added that the business climate has changed considerably in the half-decade since the club bought a 50 percent interest in KTRS and moved the broadcasts there. “I don’t think there are any regrets,” DeWitt said about the original decision to leave KMOX. He said the team will be open to offers about buying its portion of KTRS, which it purchased for $2 million, according to numerous sources. Now they’re stuck with KTRS, with no sports teams associated with that station.  Good luck on that!

Continuing “Commercials Week”

I come back from a one-way ticket to Polizzi-ville to find this sitting on my mesc?! I had the chance to see both Bonds and Clemens play the game. For Bonds, he broke in with the Pirates in 1986. He was a skinny kid, but had more talent in his little finger than most players in the majors. He was hitting homeruns then, and continued to hit them (762) until he retired in 2007. He was something to watch, and he could play the game. If the accusation of him using performance enhancing drugs is true, do I believe he belongs in the Hall of Fame? No! Period! Using performance enhancing drugs does just what it says it suppose to do. Enhance your performance. For me, that’s cheating, and you should never be rewarded for cheating. That’s the chance you take when you cheat. If you don’t get caught, you prosper, if you do, you lose. Simple as that. ...Baseball’s Hall of Fame is a special place. It is a place for those who were the best in this great game of baseball. It’s a place for such greats like Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and others. Is it a place for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Pete Rose? Time will tell, but for me Pete Rose is the real deal. Nothing enhanced about that!! Thanks for reading and remember, Never Strike Out Peace

“The Mariners knew all about Josh Lueke’s 96-mph fastball when they acquired him from the Texas Rangers in the Cliff Lee deal. But Mariners executives insisted they knew nothing before the July 9 trade about the 25-year-old minor-leaguer facing felony charges in a rape and sodomy case in which he later pleaded no contest to a lesser charge. However, new information appears to contradict the Mariners’ original version of events. Former Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair said he told general manager Jack Zduriencik about Lueke’s troubles well before the deal.”

This is the most Jason Kendall thing I have ever read: “He got to the point where he couldn’t even raise his arm,” Yost said. “He got to the point where he had to take his glove and push his arm back into a throwing position — and he was still throwing runners out.”

When Latin-American and Asian players sign professional contracts, they are typically immersed in English-language classes and, in some cases, assigned translators. Max St. Pierre wasn’t so fortunate. Taken by Detroit in the 26th round of the 1997 draft out of French-speaking Quebec City, the now 30-year-old catcher came into pro ball with neither a support system nor teammates who spoke the same language. What followed was a tumultuous ride through the minor leagues, one which featured not only loneliness but also a battle with alcohol abuse. Not a new article, but an interesting Q&A with Maxime St.Pierre, who was called up yesterday by the Tigers after 14 years in the minors.

Who would you rather have on your favorite major league team for the next six years, Aroldis Chapman or Julio Teheran?

(NOTE: the selection of the Chapman picture is not intended to influence the vote. I just don't have a good one of Teheran so I can't post both.)

Poll

Who would you rather have, Aroldis Chapman or Julio Teheran?

• Aroldis Chapman
• Julio Teheran

  796 votes | Results

A night after bowling over the catcher, Nyjer Morgan gets a pitch behind him. Morgan goes after the pitcher, when — BAM! — Gaby Sanchez out of nowhere. The (Marlins?) announcers tend to blame the whole thing on Morgan. While he is obviously not without some blame, Volstad is the guy throwing behind him. I didn’t see the game live, but apparently after they hit Morgan earlier in the game he stole a couple of bases? The Nats were down a lot, so I don’t see the logic in saying that’s why he deserved to get thrown behind again. Also, Gabby Sanchez has a heck of a right cross.

One thing ownership won’t do, Ricketts said, is favor a managerial candidate for marketing and fan-draw value, such as Ryne Sandberg. ‘‘The fact is, it’s Jim’s job to decide which manager to bring in,’’ said Ricketts, who expects to get involved as part of the interview process once Hendry has a short list of finalists. ‘‘But it’s about winning, not about marketing. ‘‘I don’t think we need a marquee name to sell tickets. What we need is a team that produces on the field. That’s really what’s most important to us.’‘

Jose Bautista is the bomb!

What’s the over/under on how many secons before Vazquez gets booed? For all the tumult that has engulfed the Yankees’ rotation during Andy Pettitte’s absence, it will probably not look much different when he returns. For one thing, Javier Vazquez will be back. And A. J. Burnett’s spot is safe, regardless of how he pitched Wednesday night against Oakland. Manager Joe Girardi announced these moves about 30 minutes before Pettitte continued making progress in his recovery from a left groin injury, throwing 55 pitches at a high intensity.

Off Topic: My Favorite Music

Today is a travel day for me, so here is some off-topic amusement, a list of my favorite songs and albums of all time.

Note that I also love classical music, particularly Mozart and Mahler, but today we'll stick with the rock genre.

Most of this is stuff that influenced me when I was growing up.

FAVORITE SONGS
10) TIE, "Big Bottom" and "Sex Farm" by Spinal Tap. HAHAHAHA. The only 80s hair metal band that people will listen to twenty years from now. And they are fake.
9) "Dazzle" by Siouxsie and the Banshees. The strings, and her voice...I could listen to this song for hours, and have done so.
8) "Hummingbird" by B.B. King. Love the imagery of love here, and the gospel singers at the end get to my heart every time.
7) "After the Gold Rush": by Neil Young.
6) "Synchronicity II": by the Police. Suburban alienation and a hard driving beat. The Loch Ness Monster imagery represents the "stuff under the surface" of the protagonist's mind that can no longer be suppressed.
5) "Crimson and Clover": the Joan Jett cover version. Lust music at its best.
4) "Violet" by Hole. Pure rage.
3) "Comfortably Numb" by Pink Floyd. This song is not about drugs.
2) "The Final Cut" by Pink Floyd. "There's a kid who had a big hallucination."
1) "Across the Universe": by the Beatles. The first song that ever actually expressed what I felt about things spiritually, this helped keep me sane during a difficult period in high school. It did more good for me than the hymns in church ever did.

The last five are very important to me. Lust, anger, alienation, fear...but in the end, Love. I use music for emotional purgation.

FAVORITE ALBUMS
10) Abbey Road, The Beatles
9) Let it Be, The Beatles
8) The Doors, by The Doors
7) Amused to Death, Roger Waters
6) Live Through This, Hole
5) Decade, Neil Young
4) Synchronicity, the Police
3) Dark Side of the Moon, Pink Floyd
2) The Wall, Pink Floyd
1) The Final Cut, Pink Floyd: I know a lot of people don't like this one, but I find it completely brilliant, even more now that I'm old enough to understand it better.

Favorite rock lyricist and general musician of all time is Roger Waters, without question. Favorite guitarists are David Gilmour, Eric Clapton, Joe Walsh, and Jeff Beck. Other artists/groups I greatly respect though they don't place a specific item on the list above include Jimi Hendrix, Cream, Jefferson Airplane (Jefferson Airplane, not that Starship crap), Kurt Cobain, The Smiths, Green Day, and Weird Al Yankovic, who is a total genius.

Everyone is all atwitter over yesterday's tweet from ESPN's Molly Knight that the McCourts' business plan called for a "significant" reduction in player salaries, later expanded on in a Times article. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with that, but it constrains the team's freedom of movement to keep together an aging-but-productive core, should one arise. (Whether that's the case with the current team is a subject for another day.)

One thing is clear, however, and that is that the Dodgers are deeply in debt, so much so that no fewer than three entities — Citibank, and two private syndicates — refused Frank cash to continue operations. The McCourts have operated the Dodgers like a sort of ATM, to be perfectly blunt about it, extracting as much present value for as little of their own operating capital as possible. As we have seen, the Dodgers have spent very little internationally since at least 2007, and only recently spent even mid-pack in domestic draft bonuses (9th overall in 2010). In short, the problems I worried about with the McCourts when they first came to town have actually come true.

If anything at all is clear from this disaster of a shamockery, it's

1. Frank and Jamie McCourt were never going to be good owners.
2. Any doubts about their ability to operate the team over the long term have been utterly erased.
3. Both need to be removed as soon as possible for the good of the team.

Joshua Fisher won't be in town today for a late-scheduled fourth day of the trial, but Molly Knight — whose tweets I have been following — is doing a bang-up job on this.

The Not Very Good Day

Today got off to a bad start when my 4 year old got up for the day at 3 AM.  It was my turn to take emergency nighttime kid duty.  Since I didn't get to sleep myself until almost 2, today took place under conditions of sleep deprivation.

After morning duty that saw me spill two drinks in the living room, I drove five hours to Northwest Arkansas, through heavy rain much of the way. Omaha and Tulsa had the same 40% chance of rain that Northwest Arkansas did, so I figured I'd gamble on the team with the best prospects. The rain stopped by the time I got here at 6, and when I left the hotel at 6:30,  the radar was clear. I congratulated myself on making the right call.

That was premature.

By 7 pm a thunderstorm had formed directly over the stadium. And it rained. And rained. And rained.  They finally called the game, to be made up with a doubleheader tomorrow. It stopped raining about 10 minutes after they cancelled the game.

Unfortunately, I can't be here tomorrow; I have to drive back home. This was just a one day window for me, and I picked the wrong city. So I'll have wasted 10 hours of road time, money for gasoline, food, and lodging, and came away empty handed.

This was not a good day.

But I made it here safely, and in the big picture that is the important thing.

Kelly Gruber, 1989 Topps

What’s up, broskies? Grube here. How’s it hangin’? Short and to the left? Ha, ha! Gotcha! Grube style.

Me? Just maxin’ relaxin.’ Spent most of the offseason at the ski lodge in Vail. The ushe. Defeated some lame bros in the Annual Ski Slope Bonanza Tournament. Won it with my signature 360-reverse-spider-twist, but this year I added a little flava to it. Can’t explain it, really. You had to be there. So sweet though.

Some fine females there this year, too. Spent some time chillin’ with a nice chica named Kelly. Hottie. They dubbed us, “Kelly Squared.” Ha, ha. I didn’t really get it –- too mathy -- but, whatever. I told her to head to the T-dot-O-dot to check my swing, ya’ know, but she had to head back to her folks in SoCal. We’ll catch up on the road. What’s that? Details? Bro. For real? You know the Grube doesn’t kiss and tell! Let’s just say…what’d I hit last year? Sixteen home runs? Make it seventeen. Hit me off with hi-fizive! (Slap!)

Couldn’t BE more ready for the 8-to-the-9. This is my year, bro. Been workin’ with some baseball sage dude from like, Guatemala or something. He told me, it’s all in my head, ya’ know? Baseball, man -– it’s an emotional game. Last week he showed me how to catch a ground ball with my feelings. I’m not even thinkin’ anymore out there! Just letting my inner Grube take over. Put me down for 40 ding-dongs this year. Call the President. Tell him the Blue Jays are coming to the White House! I hope he likes birds. Blue ones.

And none of you muchachos better leave me hanging this year! Head out to the ballpark and cheer me on. Make a sign or something. Hey, here’s a good sign for ya’…check it out: “Who’s on third? Gruber!” Ha, ha! Get it? It’s a nod to that old Three Stooges bit where they can’t figure out who’s playing where, so they start hitting each other in the eyes! Hilarious. Plus, I play third base. So it makes sense. Topical, bro.

Anyway, wish me luck! Not that I need it. The Grube’s got this, bros. But still, wish me luck just in case. I like having those vibes on my side, ya’ know? I’ll check you broskies on the flipside, alright? Signing off,

Grube

Who are your greatest intellectual influences, baseball or otherwise? In other words, who has helped shape the way you see the world, including baseball, of course?
 
I'm asking this because I find it interesting, it helps me get to know you guys better, and because I'm about to start working on the book soon and will be totally immersed in baseball research and writing soon (even more than usual! haha) and want to think about some non baseball stuff for awhile.

It doesn't have to be someone famous or fancy. Influences can come from anywhere.

Mine, in no particular order, would be Bill James, Aldous Huxley, Ken Wilber, David Hume, my college philosophy and history professors Dr. Hopper and Dr. Frucht, Walt Whitman, Roger Waters, Gene Roddenberry, Thomas Merton, Robert Heinlein, and my mother and father. 

 I don't actually like Heinlein that much...he's got some serious fascist tendencies, but I read Stranger in a Strange Land when I was 13 and that had a huge impact.

Prospect Retro Redux: Brett Gardner

Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner is hitting .286/.387/.383 this year in 464 plate appearances, with 61 walks, 80 strikeouts, and 37 steals in 44 attempts. He's shown improved patience compared to last year (last year he had 26 walks in 284 plate appearances), and his overall production of 113 OPS+ is much better than last season's 93 mark or the 53 he put up in 2008. His defense in left field is excellent. WAR rates him highly at 4.1 this year, up from 2.2 in 2009.

What was he like as a prospect?

I did a Rookie Profile of Gardner about two years ago, in September of 2008.

 

Brett Gardner was drafted by the Yankees in the third round in 2005, from the College of Charleston. Speed was his calling card, speed and the ability to draw walks, but his power was questionable. He hit .284/.377/.376 with 19 steals for Staten Island in the New York-Penn League after signing. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book, noting that I thought he was a slight overdraft, but that I thought he could be a useful player if he showed enough pop to survive at higher levels.

Gardner hit .323/.433/.418 with 30 steals in 63 games for Class A Tampa in 2006, then .272/.352/.318 with 28 steals in 55 games for Double-A Trenton. I kept him as a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, noting his speed, willingness to take walks, and defensive ability, but remaining doubtful that he would show enough pop to start. I wrote that he had "an outside chance to become Juan Pierre, but I think Jason Tyner-with-more-walks is more likely."

Returning to Trenton to begin 2007, Gardner hit .300/.392/.419 in 54 games with 18 steals, then hit .260/.343/.331 in 45 games for Triple-A Scranton with 21 steals. My analysis didn't change: I kept him at Grade C+ in the 2008 book, again noting his ability to get on base and swipe bags, but again noting the lack of power and projecting him as a fourth outfielder.

Gardner hit .296/.414/.422 this year for Scranton, with 37 steals in 94 games. In his major league action, he's hit .202/.263/.279 in 104 at-bats. Obviously that kind of performance is unacceptable. He's stolen 11 bases in 12 attempts, which is excellent, but otherwise he's been quite weak offensively. His plate discipline, which was terrific in the minors, has not translated well to the majors, with just eight walks and 26 strikeouts in 104 at-bats. And the lack of power is obvious for all to see.

What does the future hold? Despite the early problems, I still think he's got a future as a fourth outfielder. Gardner's track record is to thrive at one level, then struggle a bit in his first shot at the next level before adjusting and doing better in the second try. The lack of power is always going to be an issue, but he should get at least some of the plate discipline back. Not all of it: he doesn't have enough pop to scare pitchers into giving him excessive walks, but I expect much of the patience will return in time. His MLEs show him as a .250-.280 hitter with a .340-.370 OBP. The bottom range of that is unacceptable for a regular, but the upper range would be OK given his speed and glovework.

I think the original assessment of Gardner as Jason Tyner with more walks is still a good one. Whether that's enough to be a regular depends on the style of team I suppose. Gardner's glovework in center field is well-regarded; his arm is weak but he has excellent range. If you're getting enough power at other positions, Gardner in center field is plausable, but personally I still think he's best off as a fourth outfielder. HIs offense will be marginal for a regular, although if he hits at the top end you can make a case.

 

This year at least, Gardner has performed at the upper range of my projections for his career, with a batting average pressing .290 now. He got the patience back, as I expected, but overall he's developing towards the maximal range of his potential outcomes.

Is he "Jason Tyner with more walks?" Tyner hit .275/.314/.323 in his career. Gardner is at .271/.357/.368 so far. He's shown a bit more pop than Tyner, and yeah, a lot more walks, plus he's a better defender than Tyner was. Overall, Gardner has turned out a bit better than I anticipated two years ago, at least this year.

Yankees fans: would you be satisfied with Gardner as your regular left fielder for the next few  years?

When Marlon Byrd signed his 3-year, $15 million contract with the Cubs this past off-season, it was seen as yet another indicator that Jim Hendry was out of touch. Why add a 32-year old center fielder with a flimsy track record of success to a team with a $144 million payroll and legitimate championship aspirations?

Here is Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus reacting to the acquisition:

My initial response on Twitter (@ChristinaKahrl) was that Byrd won't slug .420 away from Texas, and while that was a flip comment*, the more I think about it, the more I'm comfortable with the idea. It might cost less than half as much as signing Gary Matthews Jr. did, but that doesn't make the signing less than half as dumb. That's the basis of comparison I'm operating from, because we've heard this story before: toolsy 31-year-old ex-fourth outfielder has big year in a superheated bandbox, gets big money, and becomes a permanent punchline on his general manager's highlight reel. No doubt Jim Hendry's moved beyond the laughter, since he's on the downslope of the Milton Bradley experience.

Byrd's performance record is entirely unmysterious.

Kahrl thought the one silver lining of the move would be that Sam Fuld, a 28-year old who hasn’t managed a .400 SLG in the PCL in 2010, might be able to get some playing time more quickly given Byrd’s ability to shift to the corner outfield positions. Christina was not alone. There was a guy named Sullivan right here at Baseball Analysts who wrote the following:

It's hard not to think back to the Milton Bradley episode and how much it distracted Chicago when looking at their moves this off-season. Losing Bradley and picking up Carlos Silva and Marlon Byrd, wherever you come down on the argument that they just had to part ways with Bradley, amounts to wheel-spinning. Byrd is no better than Bradley, Silva is just awful.

Ouch.

So how has Byrd performed? He’s hitting .302/.358/.446, good for a .356 wOBA and a 119 wRC+. Byrd ranks 3rd among National League center fielders in Runs Above Replacement. When you factor defense, his season looks even more impressive. He sits 12th in Fangraphs WAR among all National League position players. By any measure whatsoever, the Byrd signing has been a masterstroke for the Cubs, albeit a bittersweet masterstroke for Cubs fans as they ponder what might have been if their team’s other pieces were up to par.

A lot of Byrd’s success offensively has been tied to a high in-play average of .338, but then again his career figure is .325. He’s murdered lefties to the tune of a .953 OPS, and in case you think his output is tied to Wrigley, he’s been much better on the road than he has at home. Defensively, as you can deduce from his WAR number, he appears to have been terrific this season. Just five months into a 3-year deal, the complete story of the Byrd acquisition is as yet unwritten. He is hitting just .245/.268/.340 over the last 28 days. Nonetheless he's been good enough to date that it warranted attention.

I wanted to post this for a couple of reasons. The first was simply to point out a ray of light in an otherwise miserable Cubs season. Byrd seems to have exceptional make-up and character – check out his blog here – and has quickly become a fan favorite. When I attended Wrigley in late June to watch the Cubs take on Pittsburgh, I noticed how much the fans seated in the bleachers adored Byrd, cheering wildly as he took the field in the first inning. And Byrd impressed me by how much he seemed to be relishing the opportunity to patrol the Wrigley outfield in front of such appreciative fans. Byrd would be one of the great stories of 2010 if Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez had come to play this year.

Another reason I wanted to post this was to consider what it means when the saberists get it so wrong. A 32-year old whose offensive value had been tied to hitting in Texas, who had not even experienced real Big League success until age 29...well that’s not a guy worth inking to a guaranteed 3-year deal, right? That’s how my thinking went anyway. But there are considerations that teams take into account, granted inaccurately at times, that performance analysts do not.

I don’t know if what follows is true, but I bet a lot of it is, and I also bet this represents much of the case for Byrd that refutes the reasons not to sign him that Christina and I exclusively considered. Here goes:

Byrd is a guy with outstanding character who works hard and has never been in better shape. He will be a remarkable influence on his teammates, and the opportunity to play for a team with a rich tradition like the Cubs will not be lost on him. Whatever drop-off a move away from Arlington entails, consider all of these factors enough to counteract it. He’s a mature player, a true professional who got a late start but is now ready to take his game to a new level into his mid-30’s.

I bet there’s a scout out there, probably working for the Cubs, who had written something precisely to that effect on Byrd. That scout was dead right, and I know as a result of the Byrd case I will be looking into factors I previously had not considered when analyzing player movement.

According to Joe Christensen in the Star-Tribune Twins blog. Van Mil was a highly-thought-of prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically after a horrible 2010 season, bringing a 6.15 ERA split between two levels (single-A Ft. Myers and AA New Britain) with a 1-3 record in 26 appearances, all in relief. He was previously on the Dutch national team in the World Baseball Classic, in which he had a 0.71 ERA. At 7'1", he is the tallest player in the minors.

Related update: Jason Bulger and Brian Stokes were activated from the 15-day DL.

I can't say I'm too surprised to see separate, related stories on a state investigation into potential misuse of payroll by the Dodger Dream Foundation from both the New York Times and Los Angeles Times; as Steve Dilbeck put it,

There have been plenty of organizational mistakes made the last few years, but this one feels just plain sleazy. This one has earned an investigation.

Yeah. The McCourts are playing games, and not on the field.

Double-A Transition Monitor

     The transition from A-ball to Double-A often seperates the wheat from the chaff among prospects. Here are four players making that transition this year. None of them were super-hot prospects pre-season.

 

**New York Mets prospect Josh Satin: Satin had a decent year in the Sally League in 2008, then hit .316/.406/.459 in 58 games for High-A St. Lucie earlier this year. An older player at age 25, he does not excite scouts with his tools by any means, but has some pure hitting skills. His Double-A transition has gone smoothly: .319/.409/.489 for Binghamton, with 34 walks and 65 strikeouts in 254 at-bats. His plate discipline and component ratios were unchanged after the promotion, a good marker, and on the year he's hit 38 doubles and 11 homers. Satin is being groomed as a utility player around the infield, spending most of his time at second base but also seeing some action at first base and third. His range afield is poor, but he doesn't make many errors.

**San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt: Technically this is a Triple-A transition; he just moved up to Fresno last week. He's just 1-for-17 so far in five games, but has drawn six walks, and his one hit was a homer. Belt earned this promotion with a .337/.413/.623 mark for Double-A Richmond in 46 games, on the heels of his .383/.492/.628 explosion in the Cal League in the first half. He retained strong plate discipline after moving up, and scouting commentary about him is increasingly positive. I'm very impressed, and he has to be ranked among the best first base prospects in the game now, at least if performance means anything. And it isn't like his tools are bad.

**San Diego Padres prospect Jeremy Hefner: He pitched in the California League in 2009, going 14-9, 4.12 with a 142/38 KBB in 151 innings for Lake Elsinore, 165 hits allowed. Moved up to Double-A San Antonio this year, Hefner is 10-8, 3.10 with a 103/49 K/BB in 154 innings, 144 hits allowed. San Antonio is a friendly environment for pitchers and the Texas League in general isn't the high-offense haven it once was. Hefner has a 2.20 ERA at home this year and a 3.86 on the road, but his FIP is actually identical (3.85) in both environments. Overall, he is having a decent transition, although the strikeout rate has declined which is a caution flag for the future. The 24-year-old Oral Roberts product has a 90 MPH fastball and an excellent changeup, but his breaking ball still needs some polish.

**I talked about him in the AQA last week, but Astros outfielder J.D. Martinez is having a decent transition for Corpus Christi, hitting .304/.362/.422 since being promoted from Low-A Lexington in July. His Sally League numbers were remarkable: .362/.433/.598, 15 homers, 31 doubles in just 348 at-bats, 33 walks, 55 strikeouts. He's seen a power slippage since being promoted and his BB/K ratio has deteriorated somewhat, but considering that he was jumping directly from the Sally League without High-A exposure, I think he's doing pretty well. The 23 year old Nova Southeastern product has decent tools and could be more than just a minor league bat.

This article is cross-posted at Red Sox Beacon, a site I started with Baseball Prospectus writer Marc Normandin. We're not sure where it will go but for now it's just a repository for a handful of us to jot down our thoughts on the Boston Red Sox. I will still be contributing here at least every Wednesday, and occasionally on weekends as well.

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Fresh off a series loss in St. Pete and with their playoff chances inching from slim towards none, there is a new narrative taking hold here in Boston . It's difficult to follow but the best I can boil it down to is "The Red Sox knew this was a ‘bridge year’ all along and are not going for it.” Those who hold this belief - ostensibly at least - point to the lack of deal-making at the deadline and to Theo Epstein's terribly misunderstood "bridge year" remark before the beginning of the year. That the team continues to rely on the likes of Daniel Nava and Darnell McDonald to claw back into the most competitive division in baseball means the front office is content to let the season slip away, or so it goes. Some examples:

Tony Massarotti, August 30th

At any point, to blame it all on the injuries is rather elementary and downright blind.

Fenway Park has gone from among the most fashionable places to be seen to just another ballpark, and the timing could not be worse for a Red Sox administration that might have been planning for another lean year.

Seriously, might not that be, above all else, the reason the Sox put in a claim for Johnny Damon? The Sox lack star power. The Sox lack appeal.

Joe Haggerty’s Twitter feed, August 28th

Hawpe is just an example. The main point is that the #redsox lack of movement toward any players = not going for it

Chris Gasper, who basically took to Boston.com to throw a temper tantrum yesterday

Last night's defeat at Tropicana Field and the series weren't just lost over the weekend. They were lost in the last month, when fatal flaws went unfixed by the front office. While teams like the San Diego Padres (Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada) and Minnesota Twins (Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes) have addressed needs, the Sox have preferred to stand pat and apply internal patches. The Padres and Twins look playoff-bound, the Sox do not.

Actions speak louder than words. Francona's actions tell the tale of a team that waited for reinforcements from its front office that never came.

Dan Shaughnessy in today’s Boston Globe

It’s not like they didn’t warn us. Remember Theo’s comments in December about the “bridge period’’? He said that’s not what he really meant, but it was a moment of truth. The reality is the Sox figured they were in for a soft season.

A number of reactions come to mind as I read mainstream writing along these lines, but the first is to spell out exactly what the Red Sox have been through this year. Let's start with the obvious. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, conservatively, are two of the 20 best position players in baseball. They’re probably two of the 15 best and possibly both top-10. Combined, they’ve missed 85 games in 2010. Imagine if the Brewers were without Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, the Rays without Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria, or the Yankees without Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira. You could stop right there and forgive the Red Sox for merely being a .565 team playing in baseball’s (sports’?) toughest division.

Of course the story of Boston’s misfortune runs much deeper. Jacoby Ellsbury, an established 3-win player entering his 26-year old season, has played in just 18 games. Victor Martinez, one of the best catchers in all of baseball, has missed 33 games. Since health is a skill, it’s hard to get too upset about Mike Cameron’s plight in 2010, but nonetheless the fringe Hall of Fame candidate who was coming off consecutive 4+ win seasons according to Fangraphs, has not been healthy all year long. At 37, some durability issues could be expected, but Cameron has managed just 180 largely ineffective plate appearances.

On the performance side, key Sox players have struggled. Josh Beckett has been terrible in his limited action this year. John Lackey has not pitched nearly as well as he is capable. J.D. Drew has managed a couple of hot streaks but he has not been able to piece together a typical Drew offensive season despite remaining healthy as his teammates fall all around him.

The Red Sox have endured as much adversity as any team in baseball. Just a few of the items mentioned above breaking their way and Boston’s in the thick of this race. This was a bridge year in the sense that Boston needed to ink some veterans to short contracts in order to remain a top-flight team while they waited for their youngsters to develop. Marco Scutaro, Cameron and Beltre all fall into this camp, but how do any of those signings indicate that Boston's front office thought they would have a soft year? They would probably be baseball’s best team with any luck at all in 2010. I look at the 2003, 2004 and 2007 clubs and I don't know - I think this may have been the very best Red Sox roster of the Theo Epstein era. This team was designed to compete and all year long, it has.

But that first point – that the Red Sox intended to try to win the World Series all along - is only partially responsive to the complaints circling the Boston airwaves and filling the broadsheets. The notion that they’re not “going for it” by failing to make trades is preposterous on its face. Whom would you like to have seen the Red Sox acquire?

If only the Red Sox had managed to get Brad Hawpe, then at least they’d be making a go of it. Had the Red Sox traded for bats like Ludwick or Tejada, then at least we’d know they were serious. Their bullpen has been so bad. How could they NOT add Matt Capps or Brian Fuentes. And for goodness sake, things have become so dour down in the baseball ops offices, the marketing folks are now calling the shots. How else to explain the attempt to acquire Johnny Damon?

It’s hard for me to unravel the logic of these complaints but for our purposes, let’s consider the Los Angeles Dodgers. On July 31st, they sat 5.5 games out of a playoff spot, just like the Red Sox. Ned Colletti was aggressive, acquiring Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel at the deadline for a number of promising pieces in the Dodgers farm system and a couple of established Big Leaguers. For the short-term, the moves have worked out really nicely. Theriot has managed a 109 OPS+ as a Dodger, and Lilly is 5-1 since arriving on the west coast. Dotel has been spotty at times, but he’s only tossed 11 innings.

So the Dodgers made moves and were rewarded with very good productivity from their new acquisitions. Meanwhile, the Red Sox did virtually nothing at the deadline. After looking at potential moves – say Scott Downs for Casey Kelly as an example – the Red Sox decided that the market just wasn’t shaping up the way it would need to in order to compel them to deal. A month later, LA’s playoff odds have dwindled to 4% while the Red Sox chances are also slim, but still two times that of the Dodgers. Making trades for the short-term guarantees nothing.

But even when the Red Sox gave it an honest shot with the Johnny Damon waiver claim, they were not insulated from this line of attack. Damon chose not to join the club, but you can’t say the Red Sox have not been active. But folks like Mazz claim that the Damon attempt was driven by the business side of things, since, you know, the Red Sox aren't really going for it. I’m still waiting for any actual reporting on the subject. It’s speculation, and flies in the face of how the Red Sox have operated under John Henry's ownership group. Baseball Ops has total autonomy once made aware of their budget.

Boston is on pace to win 92 games in 2010. This despite as bad a non-New York Mets injury season as I can recall. Oh, those poor 2009 New York Mets. After winning 89 games in 2008, they had high hopes last year. Like the Red Sox, they got crushed by the injury bug, losing Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana among others. Unlike the Red Sox, they won 70 games.

I understand that you have to fill space in newspapers but the simple explanation for the 2010 Boston Red Sox is “shit happens.” It’s unsatisfying, but it’s the truth. They had a plan, assembled a great roster and on any number of fronts they’ve run into just awful luck. 92 wins might cut it in any other division in baseball, but in the AL East it means you might not qualify for the playoffs. And as a result, while Kevin Youkilis looks on in a splint and Dustin Pedroia gets set for surgery, an entitled, spoiled, silly media gets to spend the final month of the season grasping at straws assigning ex post facto blame as to why the Red Sox didn’t win a handful more games.

Yesterday we discussed disappointing prospects. We will be more positive today and talk about Positive Prospect Surprises. Who are your favorite prospects who have had surprisingly good seasons?

Qualifications: No one who has appeared in the majors this year. And try to avoid guys who were well-known before the season.

I saw, out of the corner of my eye, Manny Ramirez' final at-bat of his Dodgers stint in an embarrassing 10-5 blowout by the Rockies in Colorado; Manny notoriously took one pitch for a called strike one, argued and got ejected. This led to the usual smear from Bill Plaschke (whose moods change by the week). Strange to tell: Manny may, in fact, have actually quit on the team, as he allegedly refused to start on Sunday, according to helpfully anonymous sources allegedly within the Dodgers organization. Whatever, he's just as gone now.

Geoff Young of Ducksnorts reimagines the 1981 draft at The Hardball Times. Excerpt:

8. Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual pick: Dan Opperman, RHP, Valley HS (Las Vegas, Nev.), N/A
Revised pick: Albert Belle, OF, Louisiana State U. (Baton Rouge, La.), 37.4 WAR

Drafted out of the same high school that produced Mike Morgan (en route to 17 losses for the Mariners that year) and Greg Maddux (then taking his lumps as a rookie for the Cubs), Opperman never reached the big leagues. He worked a tick over 300 innings in his minor-league career before retiring at age 23. Apparently there had been concerns about Opperman's elbow before the draft and the situation deteriorated from there.

Belle slipped to the second round. After a couple false starts, he made an impact with the Indians in 1991, hitting .282/.323/.540 (134 OPS+). Had he done that in Los Angeles, it might have made a difference.

The Dodgers went 93-69 that year, finishing one game behind Atlanta in the NL West. The Dodgers started Kal Daniels in left field; his WAR was 1.0. Belle's WAR in 1991 was 2.2. It is possible that Belle's presence might have been enough to lead the Dodgers past Atlanta and push them into the NLCS against Mussina's Pirates.

With Belle, the Dodgers almost certainly win the NL West in '96. Todd Hollandsworth enjoyed a fine rookie campaign, but there is no comparison between him and Belle that year:

Player         PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Belle         715 .311 .410 .623 158
Hollandsworth 526 .291 .348 .437 113

Add in the fact that the Padres don't have Caminiti (who won NL MVP that year) or Finley, and it's looking good for LA. How well the Dodgers would have done in the postseason is another story altogether. They hit just .147/.204/.221 while being swept by Atlanta, and Hollandsworth is the only guy who contributed anything on offense.

Of course, if the Dodgers had drafted Belle, this would have affected another organization as well, although perhaps not as much as you might think. The Indians produced some terrific young talent in the early-'90s (Belle, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome), and although they would have taken a talent hit without Belle, they also ran away with the AL Central in 1995 (finishing 30 games ahead of the White Sox) and 1996 (winning by 14.5). After the '96 campaign, Belle signed with the White Sox, who—you guessed it—finished second to Cleveland.

According to news reports in Taiwan, the Yankees have determined that their contract with Tzu-Wei Lin was invalid.   Supposedly, his father had signed off on the contract, but TW Lin's signature was nowhere to be found.  Yankees Sr. VP of Baseball Operations Mark Newman confirmed that the deal was never finalized.   
  
This leaves Lin with the opportunity to continue his HS career, avoid potential problems with his HS and amateur governing baseball bodies, and also perhaps seek greener pastures in the near future (when he graduates from HS).   The rumored $600 K offer from the Twins and ~$500 K offers from the Braves and Pirates greatly exceeded the $350 K (+ $64K for school) offer from the Yankees.

The drama has also casted a shadow on Lin's reps - Octagon (for helping Lin to consider signing a contract before his HS graduation and also for taking an inferior financial offer from the Yankees).




*Deja Vu - The boys from Kaohsiung won their consolation game at the LLWS on Sunday after a crushing defeat in extra innings the day before to Japan.   Similar to 2007 during LLWS play, Japan rallied from behind to tie things up in their last AB and then win in extra innings.   Hat tip to Japan on winning the LLWS.


*The minor league season is coming to a close.   Overall, the season has been a disappointment (injuries to CJ Lo and CL Hu, the dreadful debuts of several minor league farmhands - particularly with the Pirates, and poor performances from minor league veterans) save a few bright spots (CH Chen, CH Lin, CC Lee, CH Chiang, etc.).   First year players - ZF Pan (.331 BA) and PC Chen (.292 BA, 10 SB) did manage to hold their own offensively.
Over in Japan, TH Lee has been impressive at the plate as well (.303 BA, 9 HR) while Yi-Hao Lin (3 W's, 2.93 ERA) has begun to fulfill some of the promise he once exhibited as a 15 year old.

Minor League Notes, August 30, 2010

**The first time I saw Jared Goedert play was in 2006 when he played for Kansas State University. He looked pretty decent at the plate, with some bat speed and a good approach, leading to a .337/.466/.609 line for the Wildcats, with 39 walks and 25 strikeouts in 184 at-bats. His tools were average, and he was drafted by the Indians in the ninth round that year. He had a terrific first half at Lake County in the Sally League in '07 (.364/.575/.715) which got him on the radar, but his season ended early with a shoulder injury, and he had mediocre seasons in '08 and '09, with more injury issues last year. 2010 has been another matter: .325/.382/.540 in 44 games at Double-A, .271/.354/.549 in 73 games in Triple-A, .290/.364/.545 composite line with 26 homers, 50 walks, and 104 strikeouts in 514 at-bats. At age 25 he isn't young as prospects go, but when healthy Goedert has legitimate pop and still has the aforementioned fairly polished approach at the plate. He's a fair defensive third baseman, and has also seen time at second base and the corner outfield spots. I could see him having some surprisingly good seasons in his late 20s, sneaking up on people.

**Another third baseman sneaking up on people is Cardinals prospect Matt Carpenter, currently hitting .326/.425/.509 with 12 homers, 63 walks, and 80 strikeouts in 371 at-bats for Double-A Springfield. A 13^th round pick in '09 out of Texas Christian, he's shown admirable contact hitting skills in the Texas League this year, with a good feel for the strike zone. I'm not sure what kind of home run power he'll show at higher levels, but at worst he'll hit for average and get on base at a good clip. Reviews of his defense at third are mixed. Some scouts and coaches are quibbling about his footwork and the way he handles grounders, but statistically the results are outstanding: a .975 fielding percentage, a strong range factor, just seven errors compared to 18 double plays in 98 games. Minor league range factors are prone to problems, so I want to see what the TZR says at the end of the year and what the final scouting reports are like, but based on what objective evidence we do have, his glove is a strength.

**Dodgers prospect Brian Cavazos-Galvez put up some excellent numbers last year at the University of New Mexico, hitting .392/.439/.737 in 54 games, with 15 homers and 17 steals. He has decent tools, too, with more athleticism than is typical for a guy listed at 6-0, 215. He has a strong throwing arm (his dad Balvino was a major league pitcher). But he played his college ball at a thin air bandbox, and scouts weren't sure how his skills would translate into pro ball, so he fell to the 12^th round in the draft. So far, his skills are translating very well: .316/.342/.510 in the Midwest League this year, with 40 doubles, 15 homers, and 42 steals in 55 attempts. He is very aggressive at the plate and has drawn just 12 walks, however he makes contact and has fanned just 58 times in 471 at-bats, an impressive number considering how much pop he's shown in a league that favors pitching. The main negatives here are his age (23) and the low walk rate, but his ability to make contact and drive the ball is notable and augers well for higher levels. Buzz among Midwest League sources is similar to what it was in college: he's got some tools, and his performance has been impressive, but there's still a bit of skepticism until we see him at higher levels.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Angels catcher Mike Napoli has been claimed on waivers by an unknown team.

Update 8/30: The Angels did not reach an agreement with the Red Sox, so with LAAnaheim he stays.

I will have Minor League Notes for you this afternoon. This morning, let's discuss your Biggest Prospect Disappointments of 2010.

Ignore anyone who has missed significant time with an injury, and anyone who has played in the majors this year. With that in mind, what minor league players are you most disappointed in this year?

Schedule

Stuff this week, exact order to be determined.

Look at Rookie Ball sleepers. Off-topic music post. Minor League Notes. Retro Redux on Brett Gardner. Double-A Transition Monitor. I am also going to take a quick scouting trip to either Omaha, Tulsa, or Northwest Arkansas. Also on the burner is Anthony Rizzo vs. Lars Anderson, and Starlin Castro Crystal Ball but I don't know if they will get done this week.

Rookie Profile: Kila Ka'aihue

Royals slugger Kila Ka'aihue is one of the more controversial prospects of the last few years. He's torn up Double-A and Triple-A two of the last three seasons, but the Royals were reluctant (it seemed) to give him a full chance. He's playing now, albeit with unimpressive results. Who is this guy, where did he come from, and can he hit major league pitching?

Kila Ka'aihue was drafted by the Royals in the 15^th round in 2002, out of high school in Honolulu, Hawaii. He could have gone several rounds higher due to his power potential and baseball background (his dad was a Triple-A player), but had a University of Nebraska scholarship he was expected to use. He didn't use it, signing with the Royals. Sent to the Gulf Coast Rookie League, he hit .259/.381/.381, showing excellent plate discipline but not unleashing his power yet. I didn't put him in the 2003 book.

Sent to Low-A Burlington for 2003, Ka'aihue hit .238/.355/.380, with 67 walks and 80 strikeouts in 395 at-bats. He hit 11 homers and posted a slightly positive +7 percent OPS. I saw him play that year for Burlington, and was impressed with his strength and feel for the strike zone, although he seemed to have problems with his swing mechanics. In the '04 book, I gave him a Grade C, but wrote that he had "a lot of potential as a power hitting first baseman" but that he was still trying to refine his swing. He also showed me good mobility for a big guy, although he was still raw with the glove.

Returning to Burlington for 2004, Ka'aihue hit .246/.361/.431 with 15 homers, 64 walks, and 98 strikeouts in 390 at-bats, slight progress although he was repeating the league. I gave him another Grade C in the '05 book, writing that "he works the count well and is strong enough to hit for a lot of power, but his swing goes through phases where it is excessively mechanical, resulting in long slumps." I also noted that he was scheduled to play at High Desert in 2005 and could put up big numbers in that environment.

He did exactly that, hitting .304/.428/.497 with 20 homers, 31 doubles, 97 walks, and 97 strikeouts in 493 at-bats in '05. I wrote that "he did make real progress, just not as much as you might think." His OPS increased from +11 percent in 2004 to +14 percent in 2005; a lot of the improvement was due to the change in environmental conditions, although scouts did think he made at least a little genuine progress. I raised his grade one notch to a C+ in the '06 book, writing that it was "still an open question whether he can hit for average sufficiently and make contact at higher levels."

Promoted to Double-A Wichita in 2006, Ka'aihue had a very bad season, hitting just .202/.305/.303. He still controlled the zone well (49 walks) but struck out a lot (73 in 327 games). I saw him several times, and his bat simply looked too slow against Double-A pitching. His weight (always an issue) was getting out of control, and he was bothered by knee problems that seemed to impact his weight shift at the plate. I did not put him in the 2007 book.

He began to show signs of life again in 2007, hitting .251/.360/.420 in 60 games for High-A Wilmington, then .246/.359/.447 in 70 games in Wichita. He combined to hit 21 homers and draw 76 walks against 78 strikeouts in 451 at-bats. I saw him play several times for Wichita. He had some of his bat speed back and was doing a fine job with the strike zone (as usual), although some scouts told me he was too passive at the plate and unaggressive on hittable pitches. On the other hand, he had lost a lot of mobility since I first saw him at Burlington in '03. I put him back in the book at a Grade C in '08, writing that he was young enough at age 24 to take a step forward, but that the risk was high he'd end up as a minor league slugger.

He took that step in '08. He came to camp in better physical condition, taking some stress off his knees and restoring some of his old mobility. He got off to an amazing start in Double-A, hitting .314/.463/.624 with 26 homers, 80 walks, and a mere 41 strikeouts in 287 at-bats. Promoted to Triple-A, he tore through the PCL in late July and August, hitting .316/.439/.640 with 24 walks and 26 strikeouts in 114 at-bats. He went 6-for-21 with a homer and three walks in 12 games for the Royals. It was a flawless season statistically; lots of power, lots of walks, with an incredibly low strikeout rate for a guy with that much power (37 homers, 67 strikeouts, 104 walks).

From seeing him in person, and from talking with sources, it looked to me like he'd made some genuine progress, combining his always-strong batting eye with a more aggressive approach, without sacrificing contact. He did a better job against the fastballs that previously ate him up inside, showing improved bat speed. Oddly, Royals officials seemed more skeptical about him than observers from other teams. I gave him a Grade B in the '09 book, writing that I thought much of his progress was sustainable, although I still saw him as more of a .250ish hitter in the long run, albeit with good power and OBP.

The Royals showed what they thought of his season when they signed Mike Jacobs as a free agent in 2009. Rumor had it that Ka'aihue was very disappointed in spring training, and he seemed to be discouraged early in the year at Omaha, according to PCL observers. He still showed excellent plate discipline, but was trying too hard to hit homers, to force his way back to the majors. Scouts reported that his previous vulnerability to inside pitches had returned. He did knock 17 bombs, but his overall line of .252/.392/.433 was disappointing. Plate discipline remained a strength with an 102/85 BB/K ratio, but a lot of people now agreed with the Royals and wrote his '08 off as a fluke. Bad luck may have had something to do with his season; "normalizing" his BABIP resulted in a line of .290/.420/.480 at Omaha, more like what was expected. The Royals didn't give him a September call-up, further indication of what they thought about him. I lowered his rating to a Grade C+ in the book this year.

2010 was more like 2008: .319/.463/.598 at Omaha, 24 homers, 88 walks, 69 strikeouts in 323 at-bats. He's received 78 at-bats for the Royals so far in 22 games, hitting .179/.256/.282 with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. He's going to have to pick up the hitting in September to have a clean shot at a job in '11, and even if he does that, he has Eric Hosmer breathing down his neck in the organization.

So, what do we make of him?  Is he just a minor league slugger, or is there more here?

Sabermetrically, the thing that stands out most about Kila is his BB/K ratio. He always draws a lot of walks, but unlike many power/patience hitters, he does not strike out very much. Even his current major league struggles amount to a less-than-100 strikeouts in 600 plate appearances pace. Generally speaking, high walks/low strikeouts is a good statistical profile for future success.

Scouting wise, I'm not sure what to make of him. I have seen him a lot over the last few years. Sometimes, he shows very good bat speed and clean swing mechanics. I've seen him handle those inside pitches just fine. Other times, his swing gets long and mechanical, and he gets locked up on the fastballs and struggles. The fangraphs data so far does indicate problems with fastballs in the majors, granted a 78-AB sample size is too small to draw permanent conclusions. He seems to be streaky, with long cold spells but also huge hot streaks. He also seems vulnerable to pressing at the plate, and takes time to adapt to a new level.

My guess is that Ka'aihue never gets untracked in Kansas City, ends up somewhere else, destroys Triple-A again, gets another major league shot somewhere at age 28 or 29, has a good year or two as a DH, then fades out in his early 30s.

Killed off a surprising number of Angels blogs just now, including the now-defunct Travelerocity, whose penultimate post from July 23, 2009 seems horribly prescient now. But there were some others that got the axe (Steve Bischeff's short-lived Angels blog at the Times, and the LA News Group's defunct Halos Happenings) that hadn't been updated since 2009. I hate it when that happens ...

I expect I'll have to do the same with the Dodgers blogs presently. It seems like everybody started a new Dodgers blog in the last year, and I really don't expect many of them to survive.