Circumstances have already forced me to shuffle the schedule around a bit. Ubaldo Jimenez will come up later this afternoon, and I probably won't get a chance to do the Braves thing until Wednesday or Thursday. The Twins thing is moving up the schedule.
[Editor's Note: Chris Jaffe, writer for The Hardball Times, has written a new book, “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers.” The commentary below is the introductory essay to EBM’s Chapter 5, which is titled “Rise of the Fundamentalists, 1893-1919.”]
The importance of managers peaked at the turn of the century. They inhabited a specific period in the evolution of baseball between two crucial metamorphoses of the game. First, in the late nineteenth century, field generals like Gus Schmelz and Ned Hanlon caused the rise of the modern manager and the extinction of the old business manager. By placing a premium of the preparation of players before contests and handling strategy during them, the position of manager came into its own. A generation later, the rise of the front office diminished the manager’s position by serving as a rival power source within the franchise. Between these transformations, managerial power in the sport crested. Managers ascended into the ranks of ownership with greater frequency than at any other time in baseball history, as there were fewer steps between themselves and owners. Even those who did not own a share of the club frequently had considerable autonomy. When John McGraw became Giants manager, he told the owners which players to keep or remove from the roster, indicating who called the shots for that franchise. Not all managers wielded such authority in this era, and many held considerable power in the future, but they had their strongest opportunity to control the entire franchise at the turn of the century.
Managerial power also reached its zenith because coaching was more important in this period than any other. Old time baseball is often remembered as a glory era, when players dedicated themselves to the craft of the game in a way that modern players with their supposedly softer attitudes never could. Though this attitude is very frequent in the modern day, ideas that the old-timers were better, wiser, and more dedicated are as old as the game itself.
People look at John McGraw and his devotion to those precious fundamentals. He ordered his players come to the park to practice and work out for several hours every day, making the athletes perform precisely in accordance with his formidable will. Other managers, like Frank Chance, made a similar fervent push for sound ball. Chance’s Cubs had a well-earned reputation as the sharpest players in the league.
However, not only was the deadball era far from being the golden era of fundamentals, but the evidence used to make it seem like a Mecca of proper execution are the very facts that indicate otherwise. John McGraw did not want his players practicing constantly because they were so committed, but because those who earned a spot in major league baseball commonly displayed poor fundamentals. The book Crazy ‘08 by Cait Murphy provides an interesting window into baseball during the 1908 NL pennant race. Despite focusing on teams that diligently practiced their basics – McGraw’s Giants and Chance’s Cubs – examples of shoddy play litter the book. It was not a matter of errors; the gloves and conditions of the day made muffed grounders understandable. The problems went deeper. Virtually every game contained at least one boneheaded play that could not be blamed on the conditions. Flies landed between fielders. A base runner would be doubled off on a pop up. An outfielder would misplay a grounder for an inside-the-park home run. These plays still happen, but not nearly as often. If the Cubs and Giants played like that, imagine how the doormats played. There were also some extremely smart plays, but the floor for proper conduct was much lower in 1908.
It seems strange that teams that practiced so religiously played so poorly, but think for a second. Much of what is now received wisdom was still being worked out. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century, players slowly began figuring out how to work together, or back each other up. For example, what should a catcher do when a base runner is caught in a run-down between first and second? Where should the shortstop go when the runner on first heads for third on a single to right? People are not born knowing the answers.
Look at it from the point of view of someone born in 1879 earning a roster slot in 1900. He grew up in a world where even the best players at the highest levels were still learning the core basics. It did not trickle down to Iowa’s cornfields or Pennsylvania’s coal mines overnight. Neither TV nor radio existed to teach him how the pros acted. Odds were very good he had never seen a big league game, and may not know anyone who has. Sandlot baseball has always been self-regulating, but there is usually at least some fundamental knowledge for kids to rely on. When he starts playing semipro ball, his manager was likely another player, probably under 30 years old himself. That man hopefully has some exposure to the basics being threshed out, but that was not guaranteed. Even if the skipper had basic knowledge of fundamentals, perhaps he cannot coach well. Depending on the club’s finances, he might be a business manager. If a kid could hit or possessed a strong arm, he would receive playing time, no matter how ignorant he was of fundamentals.
Thus you end up with the following story told by baseball historian Fred Stein. In 1897, a rawboned young buck called Honus Wagner began playing for the Louisville Colonels. His manager, a not yet 25-years-old Fred Clarke, told the kid to “lay one down” in his next at bat. Instead, Wagner hit a home run. Appreciative of the result but curious as to why the rookie ignored his instructions to bunt, Clarke asked Wagner what happened. Shamefacedly, the future Hall of Famer shortstop admitted he had never heard the phrase “lay one down” before. He had no idea what his manager was talking about. This was the situation Clarke, McGraw, and Chance contended with.
Fundamentals first have to be developed. Then they diffuse. Next, their instruction becomes institutionalized. Once the lessons become second nature to one generation, the next wave can be fully and immediately immersed in them. Nowadays, high schoolers are better versed in solid fundamentals than many big leaguers a century ago. After enough years and decades go by, fundamentals are so ingrained even Little Leaguers learn them, and you assume that everyone getting paid to play the game knows them by heart. Even a poor kid from the Dominican Republic has access to more knowledgeable adults and coaches than was the case for an 1890s Wisconsin farm boy.
This might oversell the point. At SABR’s annual convention in 2007, I heard Cait Murphy talk about what she learned from researching her book, and she was surprised at how advanced the level of play sometimes was. Examples of intelligent play existed – for instance the Cubs had worked out an impressive system of defensive signals amongst each other. However, such plays coincided with embarrassing miscues, as the floor for acceptable play was quite low. A wide discrepancy existed in the quality of fundamental ball played in these years. The more advanced examples of shrewd gamesmanship were often the result of major league managers instilling those values into their charges.
This explains why coaching fundamentals mattered so much for this generation of managers. The basic ideas of how to play had been worked out, now it was a time to diligently instruct them to the players. McGraw, Chance, and their ilk focused on the fundamentals because their players so sorely lacked knowledge that these pointers could significantly improve squads.
A century later, in his bestseller Moneyball, Michael Lewis introduced the phrase “market inefficiency” to baseball fans. He argued the 2002 A’s won 103 games despite a low payroll because they realized the baseball world undervalued the importance of on-base percentage. By exploiting this gap between reality and perception, A’s GM Billy Beane made his team a winner. A century earlier, the market inefficiency was fundamentals. The best managers, such as McGraw and Chance, were those who could transform raw clumps of talent into majestic creations. One should not underestimate how important sound play was back then. In the early twentieth century some teams made 100 fewer errors a year than their rivals. Combined with improved base running, solid mental play, and all those other little things, proper fundamentals were worth many wins.
Chris Jaffe is an instructor of history and a columnist for the The Hardball Times. He lives in Schaumburg, Illinois. For more information about Chris Jaffe and Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, visit the author’s website.
I'm told that there is some sort of non-baseball sporting event that is attracting some attention this evening.
Feel free to use this thread to discuss the non-baseball competition. Or you can head on over to the game thread at SBNation.com and discuss the game with many like-minded fans from around the SB Nation websites.
Not a Rookie: Marc Rzepczynski
Here's a look at Blue Jays lefty Marc Rzepczynski, one of the more successful rookie pitchers in baseball last year.
Rzep (I'm not typing that name again) was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth round in 2007, out of the University of California-Riverside. He was considered a second or third round talent before the college season, but his stock dropped slightly after he missed several weeks of pitching time with a sore elbow and a broken knuckle. He pitched very well in college (2.72 ERA, 84/25 K/BB with zero homers allowed in 73 innings), and continued to pitch very well after signing, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 49/17 K/BB in 46 innings in the New York-Penn League. Scouting reports indicated an 88-92 MPH sinking fastball, a good curveball, and a workable slider and changeup, giving him a four-pitch arsenal. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2008 book, writing that he was a big sleeper heading into the season and using the "Sleeper Alert!" tag on his comment.
He missed April 2008 recovering from a fractured bone in his pitching hand, but took the mound in May and was very impressive for Lansing in the Midwest League, posting a 2.83 ERA with a 124/42 K/BB in 121 innings, allowing 100 hits and just two homers. He posted a 3.00 GO/AO ratio to go with the low homer rate. He showed tremendous polish for the Midwest League, but at age 22/23 he was a bit old for the level. I gave him a positive review in the '09 book, renewing the Grade C+ rating but noting that the Double-A transition would be critical for him.
Rzep began '09 with Double-A New Hampshire and transitioned well, going 7-5, 2.93 with an 88/36 K/BB in 77 innings with just one homer and a 2.58 GO/AO. Promoted to Triple-A, he pitched well in two starts (16/4 K/BB, one run in 11.1 innings) and was rewarded with a promotion to the majors. For the Blue Jays, he went 2-4, 3.67 in 11 starts, with a 60/30 K/BB ratio in 61 innings, allowing 51 hits with a 4.14 FIP. His GO/AO was 1.84. The Jays shut him down on September 1st to avoid overworking his arm.
Obviously this was very good rookie performance, and given his minor league track record I don't think it was a fluke. Sabermetrically, all indicators have always been positive for Rzep, and his components deteriorated by a very normal amount in the majors. The main thing he needs to do numberwise is lower his walk rate.
Scouting-wise, his fangraphs data indicates a fastball ranging between 86 and 91 MPH, averaging 88. He used his two-seam and four-seam fastballs 55% of the time, mixing in a slider 37% of the time, but making more limited use of his changeup (6%) and curveball (just 2%). Fangraphs rates his slider as his most effective pitch. He used the curveball and changeup more often in the minors than in the majors, and I'd like to see him mix in those pitches more frequently as he moves forward. I don't see any huge red flags in his delivery, which looks pretty smooth to me, although that's no guarantee that he won't get hurt of course. The Blue Jays did the right thing shutting him down in September in my opinion.
Rzep doesn't have the pure stuff to project as an ace, but if he can sharpen his command a bit more, I think he can be a good number four starter for a long time to come. His debut was impressive and I think he's still an underrated pitcher who will have a better career than many guys who get more publicity.
Upcoming schedule after the jump. Keep in mind that, as always, things may slip a bit if real life interferes.
Note that there is some mild cheesecake below the fold, so if you are at work or something you might want to make sure the boss isn't close by.
Minor League Ball Upcoming schedule
Sunday: Not a Rookie: Marc Rzepczynski
Monday: Not a Rookie: Ubaldo Jimenez
Tuesday: Elbert vs. Morales Smackdown
Wednesday: Not a Rookie: Josh Johnson
Thursday: Why Most Prospects Need Both Double-A and Triple-A Experience
Friday: European Prospects in the Twins system
Weekend: Pitchers in the Braves system: A Look at the 2009 Rome and Myrtle Beach starting rotations
OTHER ARTICLES IN LINE SOMETIME SOON
Grade C/C+ Pitchers who Might Break Out
Grade C/C+ Shortstops who Might Break Out
European Prospects in the Twins system
Not a Rookies for Luis Valbuena, Dexter Fowler, Saltalamacchia, and Hochever
I'll also be doing an "Under the Radar for 2010" piece for Rotowire this week.
I have fond memories of, as a child, reading box scores in the newspaper. In the pre-internet, or at least pre-internet in my house, days box scores in newspapers was the medium by which I, and I assume, most people consumed baseball data. The data were all there, tightly yet efficiently packed in a format that allowed you to pull out any or all you wanted without feeling overwhelmed. Each was small enough for box scores for all the day's games to fit on one page.
I still read box scores, the medium has changed to the internet, but the box score itself is largely the same. I guess the format has stayed largely the same since the mid-1800s. Some of the stats are different but the layout is very similar. Over 150 years with little change shows that the format is remarkably successful, but that does not mean there cannot be innovations. FanGraphs's WPA charts are not box scores per se, but are a very effective way of presenting what happened in a game.
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to attempt to create a new box score. I wanted it to retain the original box score's quality of presenting a relatively large amount of information in a relatively small space, but making that data accessible and not overwhelming. Beyond that I hoped my new method gave a more immediate feeling for the pace and tenor of the game, like the WPA chart does.
Here is my attempt. The image is may be too small, but I kept it that way so that it didn't push out the right margin of the page. You can click on it for a larger version. I used game one of the 2009 World Series for the example.

Each at-bat is represented by a bar, the height of which denotes the base the batter reached. White bars are for outs, black for hits or walks. The batter's progression around the rest of the bases that inning is indicated in gray (steals have a vertical black line through them). Runners on-base during an at-bat are indicated in red: circles for those not moved over in the at-bat, lines to show their progression as a result of the at-bat and an 'ex' if they were thrown or tagged out in that at-bat.
The score can be counted along as the black or gray bars reach the top. That also allows you to count individual batter's runs scored or pitcher's runs allowed. Red lines that reach the top are RBIs.
Compared to a traditional box score it is harder to find an individual player's line. For example to see that Chase Utley went 2-4 with 2 HRs, 2 runs, 2 RBIs, a strikeout and a walk you have to go through, find his at-bats and count all of the events. But the trade-off is, I think, this formulation gives a better feel for the pace of the game, and allows the events to be easily recreated: in the top of the first CC Sabathia escaped a base-loaded two-outs jam; Phil Hughes took over to start the eighth and walked the only two batters he faced, both of whom came around to score on Raul Ibanez's single; Utley's two solo-HRs were the only runs through the first seven innings; Cliff Lee didn't allow a runner past first until the ninth, and up to that point faced just three batters over the minimum; the Yankees burned through five relievers, who gave up four runs, in the last two innings; the top of the ninth ended with Shane Victorino getting thrown out at home on a Ryan Howard double and the game ended with two more Cliff Lee strikeouts. All of this can be easily seen through a close, but not difficult, reading of the chart.
What do you think of this format: Complicated and poorly laid out? Hard to read? Brilliant? I welcome constructive criticism in light of what you want from a representation of a baseball game.
Here is an All Questions Answered Thread. Comments are now closed, but thanks to everyone who participated. I also got some good fodder for future articles here.
GROUND RULES
1) Only one question per poster please.
2) Please try not to ask questions like "rank these 50 players in order"
3) I am still dealing with Jeri being sick, so it will take me time to work through the questions. Please be patient.
Jeri is feeling somewhat better and I hope to be fully operational Saturday. I was involved in two seperate and unrelated car accidents today, and that kind of ruined my day and kept me from working on this until now.
Adam Kennedy is coming to Washington.
And the bad news is: Desmond is out at short? Cristian Guzman will continue doing his Washington Monument impression at shortstop for another season? Via Ken Rosenthal:
Kennedy, 34, is expected to be the Nationals’ second baseman, enabling Cristian Guzman to remain at shortstop.
The Nats had talked about moving Guzman to second to clear short for rookie Ian Desmond. The addition of Kennedy will allow Desmond more time to develop at Class AAA.
Booooooo!! Why?
Details of the deal: $1.25 million, with a $2 million option in 2011, according to MASN's Ben Goessling:
Confirmed terms on the Kennedy deal--$1.25 million for this year, $2 million team option next year.
(Ben Goessling, masnNATS/Twitter, 2/5/2010)
So I guess the question now is this: When does that Fernando Martinez for Yorvit Torrealba trade happen? "When [Carlos] Beltran had surgery, I thought I had a chance, and maybe they would give me a chance at center. But they get Matthews Jr., and now I'm not sure where I am. I just can't give up. I know I'm a big league player, and I can perform at a high level. It's in my hands, so I have to keep working hard and maybe earn a spot. Maybe I make it to the big leagues with the Mets or maybe another team, but I know I can do it. I just have to keep working and waiting for my opportunity." -Fernando MartinezDude ... May I call you dude? You're only 21 years young, you were on the interstate in your time up here, and you haven't proven you can put a full season together without pulling ... anything. So dude, calm down a tad.
Hurdles remain, including a physical, but #Twins are moving toward signing O. Hudson to one-year, $5M deal.
(Ken Rosenthal, via Twitter, 2/04/2010)Heard this: Hudson is closing in on a $5 million with the Twins.
(Buster Olney, via Twitter, 2/04/2010)
So Desmond/Guzman it is in 2010. Or Desmond/Guzman/Kennedy. Or...maybe someone can track down Jose Vidro and throw him back in the mix. No matter how you mix and match the bodies, the Nationals head into the 2010 season with big question marks up the middle.
Granted, Orlando Hudson has probably lost a step. And not signing Orlando Hudson is not the end of the world. But what happened?
According to a published report, the Nationals offered Hudson $3 million, with incentives that could have brought the value of the contract to $4 million. The source said Hudson was not going to sign with Washington for that kind of money.
(via Bill Ladson/Nationals.com, 2/04/2010)Despite mutual interest between both parties, neither was willing to budge on financial terms. The Nats were believed to have offered between $3 million and $4 million; Hudson insisted on considerably more than that.
(Mark Zuckerman, via Nats Insider, 2/04/2010)
So it was all about the money. Surprise.
But consider for a moment that Mike Rizzo was willing to throw $6 million for 2 yrs. down the crapper for the washed up carcass of Pudge Rodriguez in the name of mentoring. It seems strange that Rizzo would then refuse to move on a $3+ million incentive-laden deal for a guy who would be an upgrade up the middle for baseball's worst defensive team.
What happened? Did Rizzo botch this thing? Or was Hudson really refusing to budge from that reported demand for $9 million? Surely this wasn't a question of Rizzo being up against a tight budget. Right?
Can't we just blame the Lerners and be done with it? No? Fine.
Tonight, we're disappointed that the Nationals failed to sign Orlando Hudson. Not despondent, but disappointed.
How many days until pitchers and catchers report?
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We are still on "Jeri is sick" protocol around these parts, so here is a discussion question to keep you guys entertained.
Which rookie pitcher would you rather have for 2010 ONLY...Brian Matusz of Baltimore, or Wade Davis of Tampa Bay. Don't worry about any season past 2010, and assume that both pitchers will be in the rotation on opening day.
Matusz shows up slightly higher than Davis on most prospect lists, but do you like him better than Davis JUST FOR 2010? Try to approach this one from a fantasy perspective, so things like the support of teammates can factor into your decision.
Jeri is sick with some sort of flu bug....fever, vomiting, etc. As a result, I'm on full-time child care, sick spouse, and book-shipping call right now and writing time is non-existent. Thanks for your patience.
If you want to contribute to the Pepto Bismol fund, feel free to buy a 2010 Baseball Prospect Book! I hear it's pretty good.
"I think during the second half of the offseason, we are going to let a little bit of that come to us. We do think there is a surplus of people out there ... that we are talking about. There is nobody ... out there on the pitching market that is a difference maker."
(Mike Rizzo, via Nationals.com, 2/03/2010)
Making a little joke there (ha ha) about Jason Simontacchi's availability on the market, since his name popped up just Tuesday in Nats Insider's "From NatsTown to oblivion" post. Oblivion apparently means Venezuela for Simontacchi, because, lo and behold, a night after a Vinny Castilla sighting, there's Jason Simontacchi on TV on MLB Network, starting for Venezuela in a 5-2 Caribbean Series win over Puerto Rico. True to his 2007-Simontacchian form, he pitched pretty well for four innings, then ran out of gas in the fifth. His line: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5K, 1 HR.
Which brings us to a Nationals.com report Wednesday that the Nats are looking at Wang (*ahem*). Chien-Ming Wang, that is, making his way back from shoulder surgery. Given Mike Rizzo's quote (above) yesterday on Nationals.com suggesting there aren't any "difference makers" left on the market, one has to wonder if it's time to just get comfortable with a 2010 rotation that looks something like this (throwing Strasburg out of the conversation):
1: John Lannan
2: Jason Marquis
3 - 6: JD Martin? Scott Olsen? Ross Detwiler? Craig Stammen? Miguel Batista?
Nats Triple Play nailed it yesterday:
...the search has clearly shifted from legitimate free agent upgrade .... to the Nats old familiar haunt, Trader Jim's Bargain Bin and Retread Emporium.
In that spirit, maybe Simontacchi's not such a bad idea after all.
And then, there's always Livo. Wonder if Rizzo's called him back yet?
Meanwhile...
Starting now, we're not going to mention the name Orlando Hudson here until he signs. Somewhere. Anywhere. We're O-Dog tired of talking about the O-Dog.
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Old -- make that, REALLY OLD-- friend Vinny Castilla went 2-4 with a HR, double, and 2 RBI for Mexico in Tuesday night's 7-2 win over Venezuela in the Caribbean Series. We got sort of misty eyed watching the 42 year old Castilla hobble around the field on those shoddy knees during the game (on MLB Network). He even homered, just for old times sake.
Meanwhile...
Bill Ladson reported earlier Tuesday that the Nats' deal for Orlando Hudson is still stuck because Hudson's asking price is (still) too high. Ladson also catches up with Adam Kennedy, who is apparently just sitting around waiting for his phone to ring in case the Hudson deal falls through (via Nationals.com 2/2/2010):
"They basically let us know that they are kind of waiting on Orlando," Kennedy said. "They didn't put a timetable on it."
Maybe Kennedy should call Livan Hernandez, and they can sit and wait around for Rizzo to call together?
Great to have Mark Zuckerman back in the mix at Nats Insider.
Go here to read the transcript of today's Ben Goessling chat on MASNSports.com.
Nationals Farm Authority with the scoop on some minor league moves. Kevin Mench?
Another day, another new post up at Capitol Punishment.
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Good news: the Nationals were planning to test the fireworks system at Nats Park earlier this evening. Via WTOP.com:
The Nationals will be testing its fireworks system to determine the best location for the Friday night fireworks.
The test will start at 7 p.m. at Nats Park on South Capitol Street in Southeast.
It's expected to last about seven minutes.
Given several instances of Fireworks Fail at Nationals Park in 2009, for example: the post-fireworks debris falling on the DC Fire Chief on June 7th, and the premature fireworks celebration on July 5th, the Nationals can probably use all the practice they can get when it comes to pyrotechnics.
At this hour, we haven't heard any reports of Nationals Park burning down, or buildings in Southeast spontaneously catching fire, so we're going to chalk up tonight's test as a success.
Bang, Zoom!
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I'll be doing an interview at HotStove.com at 1 pm central time this afternoon. Stop by!
Not a Rookie: Mat Latos
Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.
He didn't sign right away, but passed up four-year college baseball to attend Broward Community College in Florida and keep his options open. A good spring in 2007 convinced the Padres that he was worth the money, and he signed for $1.25 million hours before he would have re-entered the draft pool.
Latos made his pro debut in the Northwest League, posting a 3.83 ERA with a 74/22 K/BB in 56 innings for Eugene. He showed a 93-97 MPH heater in his debut, along with a plus slider. His curveball and changeup needed some work and his command was inconsistent, but his upside was clearly very high. I gave him a Grade B in the 2008 book, writing that he had the ceiling of a number one starter but that we needed to see some higher-level data.
Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he'd be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
Latos began 2009 back with Fort Wayne, but was promoted after posting a 0.36 ERA with a 27/3 K/BB in 25 innings. Moved up to Double-A San Antonio, he dominated the Texas League with a 5-1, 1.91 mark and a 46/9 K/BB ratio in 47 innings, allowing 32 hits. The Padres promoted him to the majors at that point and he held his own, going 4-5, 4.62 in 10 starts, with a 39/23 K/BB in 50.2 innings, allowing 43 hits, moving just barely past the rookie innings limit.
Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That's outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.
His major league statistics weren't quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that's just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.
Looking at his Fangraphs and Pitch/fX data, his fastball and slider both rate as above average pitches by their metrics, with only the changeup coming out as a below average pitch. He relied mainly on his heater, throwing the fastball an estimated 66% of the time, with the slider at 20.5% and the changeup at 11.6%. That seems to jive well with the minor league scouting reports. The heater averaged 94 MPH and was clocked as high as 98. Again, this meshes perfectly with what he did in the minors. His stuff is clearly first class, though improving the changeup and sharpening his command are necessary steps for him to live up to his ace potential.
There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he's a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook: "He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude." Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from "he's just a different guy" to "what a jackass." His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn't look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don't have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I'm not overly concerned about the makeup issue.
I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think "he's gonna get hurt." Your mileage may vary.
In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he'd come in under the 50-inning limit, I'd rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher's list.
Not a Rookie: Bud Norris
Bud Norris was drafted by the Astros in the sixth round in 2006, out of Cal Poly.
His college performance was spotty: 4.55 ERA with a 61/57 K/BB in 111 innings with 118 hits allowed; the strikeout rate was quite low for a guy with good stuff (90-93 MPH, good breaking ball). His inability to dominate college hitters probably cost him a couple of rounds in the draft. However, he was more effective in pro ball, posting a 3.79 ERA with a 46/13 K/BB in 38 innings for Tri City in the New York-Penn League, allowing 28 hits. His K/IP was more than double what he posted in college. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, writing that "I have a good intuitive feel about him, although of course that's impossible to quantify or explain in any way that doesn't make me sound like a lunatic. Not that THAT ever stopped me."
The Astros moved Norris up to Lexington in the Sally League in 2007, where he went just 2-8, 4.75 in 22 starts. He posted a 117/41 K/BB in 97 innings, with 85 hits allowed. Despite the ugly ERA and won-loss record, his K/IP and H/IP marks were very strong and pointed to plenty of upside. He needed to lower his walk rate, but the ERA wasn't a fair representation of how he pitched. His FIP was much better at 3.31. Scouts reported that his fastball improved to 92-96 MPH, and he made some progress refining his breaking ball and changeup. I increased his rating to a Grade B- in the 2008 book, noting that he was a breakout candidate, and "if he can sharpen his command even a little bit, he could dominate."
Promoted to Double-A Corpus Christi for 2008, Norris went 3-8, 4.05 in 19 starts, limited by elbow problems. He continued to post an impressive K/IP ratio with 84 whiffs, while walking 31 and giving up 89 hits. Scouting reports indicated slow but steady progress with fastball command and his hard breaking ball, but his changeup lagged behind and there were concerns that his mechanics stressed his elbow. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever and was very successful, clocked as high as 98 MPH, and last winter it seemed there was a good chance he would end up in the bullpen permanently. I gave him another Grade B- in the '09 book, writing once again that if his command improved he could dominate.
Norris split '09 between Triple-A Round Rock and the majors. In Triple-A he went 4-9, 2.63 with a 112/53 K/BB in 120 innings, allowing 104 hits. . .the walks were still a little higher than ideal, but he continued to post strong K/IP and H/IP marks with a 3.41 FIP. In the majors, he went 6-3, 4.53 with a 54/25 K/BB in 56 innings, allowing 59 hits with a 4.77 FIP, not bad at all for a rookie.
According to fangraphs, Norris' fastball averaged 93.8 MPH in the majors, topping out at 98 MPH. He relied primarily on the fastball and slider, mixing in changeups just 6% of the time. Fangraphs rates his slider as his most effective pitch, which matches the scouting reports I had on him in the minors. He still needs to sharpen up his command, and improving the changeup and using it more often is a good idea. Again, this is all consistent with the minor league reports.
Norris threw 176 innings last year, the most he's ever thrown and more than double his '08 innings. I think the Astros need to monitor his workload carefully this year, especially when he gets past the 100 inning mark. Assuming he avoids further elbow problems, I think Norris will be a league-average pitcher in 2010, then take a larger step forward in 2011.
As an aside, yes, I know that won-loss record means nothing as far as analyzing a pitcher's future goes, but it's at least weird that his career record in the minors was a mere 12-25 (.324), given that his 3.68 ERA was solid and his FIPs were always strong. It looks like Norris was frequently snakebit by poor offensive and defensive support from his minor league teammates. Perhaps this will be something he can take forward, how to bounce back from something when the world breaks against you?
Overall I think he is something of a well-kept secret nationally, and one of the better young pitches who debuted in '09. If still eligible for rookie grading, I'd give him a strong Grade B.
Hello, Happy Readers!
Here are some facts about your fellow fans...at least, where they live.
We have readers in 47 states, plus Puerto Rico and DC.
The states with no readers: Idaho, Wyoming and Mississippi. We are not surprised about the first two, but HEY! MISSISSIPPI! Get your orders in! We miss you! (and you westerners, feel free to order too!)
UPDATE: Woo, hoo...Mississippi came through. Idaho and Wyoming are still slackers though.
The state that most outperformed our expectations: New York.
The state that sold the most books: California, of course!
The state that sold the 3rd most books: Illinois.
Oklahoma exactly doubled the number of orders over last year.
Iowa went down a little...(bummer, John's home state!)
We sold books in 8 countries other than the US, one more than last year.
There were more orders via snail mail than there have been in about 5 years.
The bottom line is, we value all our readers, and are grateful for each and every one of you, no matter where you live.
If you want to order the book, click HERE!
Gotta love an organization like the Mets that dares to fly in the face of conventional wisdom."“In our review of the player’s medical records in the acquisition of J.J. Putz, we were aware that he had a bone spur before the trade. He had the same condition in 2008 and was able to pitch with it. J.J. underwent an exam during Spring Training and an additional exam and MRI before he was cleared to play in last year’s World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately the spur did flare up again in May, and he missed the rest of the season."Ooooooh ... BAZING! What a response!!!!! Except, y'know, it disputes nothing that Putz said in the "controversial" interview.
"When the trade went down last year, I never really had a physical with the Mets,” said Putz. “I had the bone spur (in the right elbow). It was discovered the previous year in Seattle, and it never got checked out by any other doctors until I got to spring training, and the spring training physical is kind of a formality. It was bugging me all through April, and in May I got an injection. It just got to the point where I couldn't pitch. I couldn't throw strikes, my velocity was way down."Sounds to me like player and team are on the same page! Tremendous!!! Too bad the player is no longer a part of the team he's on the same page with.
Putz’s season was over. And he learned a very important lesson: "That it’s my career, and when you know something doesn't feel right, and they want to take these little sidesteps to do something, and just wait and wait and wait, you got to get it taken care of instead of trying to prolong the inevitable."Vindication ... thy name is Carlos Beltran.
"We are happy to hear he is feeling well, and wish him success with the White Sox."Yes, we've seen this kind of quote before. Here's the loose translation:
"Jam it where the sun doesn't shine, J.J."Funny if a Mets doctor had done that, we might not be in this mess.